MNI BRIEF: RBNZ Lowers Peak OCR Call, Adjusts CPI Forecast
The RBNZ lowered the possibility of further rate hikes, while leaving the OCR at 5.5%.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy committee (MPC) unanimously voted to hold the official cash rate at 5.5% today, its fifth consecutive pause, while the updated Monetary Policy Statement adjusted the pace it expects inflation to fall and lowered its peak rate prediction.
The RBNZ now expects annual CPI to fall to 2.6% by the September 2024 quarter, down from the previous 2.9% forecast made in November. The Reserve targets inflation between 1-3%. The MPC's latest move was largely anticipated. (See MNI RBNZ WATCH: MPC To Consider Pause And Keep Hawkish Stance)
The Reserve also expects the OCR to peak at 5.6% in the June quarter, down from 5.7%. (See charts).
In its statement following the decision, the MPC noted the current level of the OCR is restricting demand. “However, a sustained decline in capacity pressures in the New Zealand economy is required to ensure that headline inflation returns to the 1 to 3 percent target.”