Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
U.S. employment conditions as captured by real-time data from employee scheduling software provider Homebase continue to show a strong labor market in July, St. Louis Fed economist Max Dvorkin told MNI.
The Fed bank's Coincident Employment Index increased by 0.43pp between mid-June and mid-July, suggesting employment may have risen by a seasonally-adjusted 440,000 in the month. The unadjusted prediction is for a 690,000 rise in employment. However Dvorkin cautioned that in the past four months, the CEI has over-predicted employment gains. These figures correspond to the BLS's household survey, a different measure of hiring than the headline payrolls data from the establishment survey. Markets are expecting Friday's jobs report to show U.S. payrolls gains slowing to 200,000 from 209,000 in June.
Wage inflation in the Homebase data for workers continuously employed over the past 12 months in the same firm continues to show a mild downward trend, consistent with wage measures from the Labor Department, the Atlanta Fed and ADP, Dvorkin said.
"The continued strength of the labor market contributes to an increased level of economic activity, boosting consumption and output growth. However, the downward trend in wage inflation provides positive news about the fight against inflation," he said.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.