Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK GDP likely rose 4.8% between April and June, according to analysts, but supply bottlenecks and a global semiconductor shortage could lead to a downturn in manufacturing output. Car production declined 58% in Q2, according to the SMMT, a jaw-dropping fall in a sector that comprises 9% of the manufacturing base (and just under 1% of GDP). Production increased by 0.8% in Q1. However, auto manufacturing rebounded by 26% in June, albeit from an extraordinarily low level in May. Analysts currently forecast a 0.4% percent increase in total manufacturing between May and June.
Consumer spending is expected to rise by 5.5%, reversing a 4.6% in Q1, with Q2 retail sales, up 12.2%, likely to add 0.6% to GDP, according to the ONS. However, analysts will be closely eyeing the performance of the service sector in June (forecast to rise by 0.9% m/m) amid reports that a resurgence of the Delta Covid variant dampened consumer confidence. Analysts look for a 0.8% rise in June GDP, matching the May advance.
City forecasts are slightly below the BOE Q2 growth prediction of "around 5%." An as-expected outcome would far outpace the Q3 performance of the US (+1.6% q/q) the EU (+2.0%) and China (+1.3%). However, the US and China have regained pre-Covid output levels, while the UK remained 8.8% below pre-Covid levels at the end of Q1 and is not expected to top Q4 2019 until late 2021 or very early 2022.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.