MNI BRIEF: UK Set For 'Steady, Unimpressive Gowth' In 2025-CBI
MNI (LONDON) - The UK economy will grow at a "steady yet unimpressive pace through to 2026, primarily driven by household spending," the CBI said Friday in its Economic Forecast.
The business lobby group expected the economy to expand by 1.6% in 2025 -- a slightly slower pace than the 1.9% seen in their June forecast round. Consumer spending growth is expected to decelerate, as real incomes growth is squeezed, with inflation remaining above the Bank of England's 2% target through 2026.
Inflation is expected to pick up in Q4 2024 and sit at 2.6% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, with the upgraded projection partly reflecting the feedthrough of Budget measures. This will lead to a more gradual pace of interest rate cuts, and the MPC is expected to reduce Bank Rate by 25 basis points each quarter, reaching a terminal rate of 3.5% in Q1 2026. (see MNI POLICY: BOE Braces For Trump Impact Without Scenarios )