MNI BRIEF: UK YTD Gov't Borrowing Below OBR's March Forecast

UK government borrowing was higher than expected in October, coming in above the Office for Budget Responsiblity's single month forecast back in March. However, overall borrowing year-to-date is almost GBP17 billion below the OBR's forecast and will offer the Chancellor some fiscal leeway in Wednesday's Autumn Statement, although overall the finances still remain pressured..

Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks (PSNB ex) in October 2023 was £14.9 billion,£4.4 billion more than in October 2022 and the second highest October borrowing since monthly recordsbegan in 1993, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday.

In the financial year-to-October 2023, PSNB-ex was £98.3 billion, £21.9 billion more than in the same seven-month period last year, but £16.9 billion less than the £115.2 billion forecast by the OBR at the time of the March 2023 Budget. However, compared to revised data for September, the fiscal leeway has somewhat receded, when borrowing was GBP18.1 billion below the OBR's projection.