MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, October 14

MNI BRIEF: China Sep M2 Rises To Four-Month High

MNI BRIEF: China Foreign Trade Grow Steady; Exports +4.3% YTD

MNI BRIEF: China Foreign Trade Facing Pressure In Q4

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY16.0 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY16.3 TRLN: PBOC

CHINA SEP EXPORTS +2.4% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +6.0% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Luxembourg Synd; UK, FI Due Tuesday

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.2% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI BRIEF: China Sep CPI Slows To 0.4% Y/Y On Base Effects

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

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MNI Canada CPI Preview: Key Final Input Before Fourth BoC Cut

The CPI report for September comes with markets undecided over a shift up to a 50bp cut from the BoC next week
Bank of CanadaGlobalCentral Bank NewsCanadaMarketsStoryRegionNorth America

Executive Summary

  • The September CPI report is released Tuesday, Oct 15, at 0830ET and should receive little cross-market interference with only the Empire manufacturing survey scheduled for then in the US.  
  • Consensus sees headline CPI easing two tenths to 1.8% Y/Y having returned in August to the target midpoint for the first time since early 2021.
  • The BoC’s preferred core measures meanwhile are seen broadly unchanged at 2.4% Y/Y having come in as expected at 2.35% back in August, whilst a more traditional CPIxFE is seen firmly slightly to 2.5% Y/Y.
  • That combination should see headline undershoot the BoC’s Q3 forecast from June by two tenths but only a marginal miss for the average of median and trim measures.
  • This is the last major release before next week’s October BoC decision and will likely be pivotal in guiding broader expectations. It’s hard to argue with the 38-39bp of cuts priced with two-way sensitivity to the data. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL NOTE HERE: CanadaCPIPrevOct2024.pdf

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Executive Summary

  • The September CPI report is released Tuesday, Oct 15, at 0830ET and should receive little cross-market interference with only the Empire manufacturing survey scheduled for then in the US.  
  • Consensus sees headline CPI easing two tenths to 1.8% Y/Y having returned in August to the target midpoint for the first time since early 2021.
  • The BoC’s preferred core measures meanwhile are seen broadly unchanged at 2.4% Y/Y having come in as expected at 2.35% back in August, whilst a more traditional CPIxFE is seen firmly slightly to 2.5% Y/Y.
  • That combination should see headline undershoot the BoC’s Q3 forecast from June by two tenths but only a marginal miss for the average of median and trim measures.
  • This is the last major release before next week’s October BoC decision and will likely be pivotal in guiding broader expectations. It’s hard to argue with the 38-39bp of cuts priced with two-way sensitivity to the data. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL NOTE HERE: CanadaCPIPrevOct2024.pdf

Keep reading...Show less