MNI: Canada Flash Q3 GDP +1% Annualized, Lagging BOC Estimate
Canada's economy grew at a 1% annualized third-quarter pace according to Statistics Canada's flash estimate Thursday, slower than the central bank's recently downgraded forecast for a 1.5% expansion.
The quarter ended with a flash gain of 0.3% in September, the fastest since April. The increase was driven by finance, construction and retail while mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction were weak spots.
StatsCan's official GDP figure for August was unchanged, in line with analysts' forecasts and the second time in three months output was flat. Gains in finance and public administration were offset by a 0.4% decline in goods-producing industries to the lowest since December 2021 led by manufacturing and utilities.
The third-quarter growth figure is also weaker than estimates by private economists who see the BOC cutting at the next meeting in December with the question being whether it's another 50bp move or a return to the three 25bps cuts taken at previous meetings. The Bank predicts growth will pick up from 1.2% this year to 2.1% in 2025, and for growth to quicken to a 2% pace this quarter.