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MNI POLITICAL RISK - Tight Polling Raises Concerns Of Herding

Daily round-up of news from the US.
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Executive summary:

  • Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in the Southwest today, courting Latino voters amid a struggle for control of the Puerto Rico ‘garbage island’ story, a news cycle that Democrats had hoped could syphon Latino votes from Trump in key swing states. President Biden’s comments in response to the story exposed a headache for the Harris campaign: What to do with a president who is often a liability rather than an asset?
  • Yesterday saw a stream of polling that did little to change the outlook of the presidential race. The consistently tight polling has led to accusations that polling outlets may be herding their results to avoid exposure to a polling miss. 
  • There has been recent chatter about early voting data as a predictive tool. In Nevada, one state where early voting data may be more reliable has shown signs that rural GOP votes are outpacing urban Democrat votes, a positive sign for the GOP in a state that could feasibly determine the winner.
  • A new Gallup report on national mood shows a mixed bag for Harris and Trump.
  • President Biden said that yesterday’s GDP report, “shows how far we’ve come since I took office.”
  • Biden’s top Middle East advisors are expected to arrive in Israel today to discuss the contours of a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire proposal.
  • Poll of the Day:Trump’s lead on the economy has shrunk to six percentage points.

Please find the full article attached below: US Daily Brief

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Executive summary:

  • Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in the Southwest today, courting Latino voters amid a struggle for control of the Puerto Rico ‘garbage island’ story, a news cycle that Democrats had hoped could syphon Latino votes from Trump in key swing states. President Biden’s comments in response to the story exposed a headache for the Harris campaign: What to do with a president who is often a liability rather than an asset?
  • Yesterday saw a stream of polling that did little to change the outlook of the presidential race. The consistently tight polling has led to accusations that polling outlets may be herding their results to avoid exposure to a polling miss. 
  • There has been recent chatter about early voting data as a predictive tool. In Nevada, one state where early voting data may be more reliable has shown signs that rural GOP votes are outpacing urban Democrat votes, a positive sign for the GOP in a state that could feasibly determine the winner.
  • A new Gallup report on national mood shows a mixed bag for Harris and Trump.
  • President Biden said that yesterday’s GDP report, “shows how far we’ve come since I took office.”
  • Biden’s top Middle East advisors are expected to arrive in Israel today to discuss the contours of a new Israel-Lebanon ceasefire proposal.
  • Poll of the Day:Trump’s lead on the economy has shrunk to six percentage points.

Please find the full article attached below: US Daily Brief