MNI: Canadian Retail Sales Pointing To Weak Third Quarter

Canada's retail sales fell in July after adjusting for price gains and a flash reading showed a decline in overall receipts for August, suggesting consumer spending is weakening again in the third quarter, a trend the central bank is relying on to justify avoiding further interest-rate hikes.

Headline sales rose 0.3% in July but the volume of sales that strip out price increases declined 0.2% according to Statistics Canada's report Friday from Ottawa. The agency's flash estimate for August was a 0.3% decline, though the response rate of 49% was lower than the recent average of 89%.

Excluding autos, sales climbed 1% led by food and beverage stores and nominal sales rose in seven of nine major categories. Gasoline sales declined 0.7% in July and volumes fell 1%.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem held interest rates at the highest since 2001 at 5% earlier this month as officials saw evidence their 10 prior hikes were slowing consumer spending. Most economists see the Bank holding again in October, though bets on a hike increased after a report Tuesday showing inflation quickened to 4%, double the Bank's target. 

The weak retail figures for July and August follow gains of just 0.1% affirmed by StatsCan on Friday for May and June, further indication consumer spending is no longer a a major economic driver. Other recent reports suggest less spending potential, with unemployment rising about half a percentage point from a record low in recent months and a record jump in mortgage rates pressuring consumer finances. 

Still, the headline retail sales gain for July beat the economist consensus receipts would be little changed. The gain was just shy of StatsCan's earlier flash estimate July sales would climb 0.4%. 

One question mark is around auto sales, which fell for the first time in four months in July with a 1.6% decline. Some dealers are still reporting delays filling orders as automakers seek to restore full production after the Covid pandemic.