Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- The Central Bank of Russia is unanimously expected to stand pat on rates at 16% given persistent concerns over inflation.
- Economic activity data points to robust domestic demand, while the labour market remains tight.
- The central bank stated in the minutes of the March MPC meeting that there should be no additional directional signal about changes in the level of the key rate at coming meetings. Among sell-side, broad consensus is that the rate cutting cycle will begin in H2-2024.
See the full preview, with sell-side analyst views, here:
Minutes of last month’s MPC meeting revealed that meeting participants were of the opinion that, given the current situation, tight monetary conditions in the economy should be maintained for a longer period of time. Only a ‘hold’ option was considered by policymakers, though most agreed that inflation pressures have been easing in recent months, albeit at a less pronounced rate than at the end of 2023. The minutes showed that three main arguments justified the hold decision and similar factors will likely warrant another hold this month: 1) there is no certainty yet about the speed of further disinflation; 2) monetary conditions have not yet fully adjusted to previous key rate increases; 3) the risks from a premature reduction of the key rate can be significant.
Interestingly, the CBR noted that “a consensus emerged that at the March meeting there should be no additional directional signal about changes in the level of the key rate at the coming meetings,” adding that “a signal about a reduction in the key rate may lead to a premature easing of monetary conditions” while “a signal about an increase in the key rate may lead to an additional, excessive tightening of monetary conditions.”
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.