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Executive Summary:

  • Russian central bank expected to continue easing cycle this month
  • Easing would come alongside softening inflationary pressures and expectations
  • July rate cut may not be the last, with further easing likely in September
Full MNI Preview here, with summary of sell-side analyst views:


The Russian central bank are expected to continue their easing cycle this month, further normalising policy after 2022’s emergency rate hike in the wake of the Ukrainian invasion. Another easing step this month would come alongside softening inflationary pressures, and a further pullback of the strictest elements of their capital controls installed to protect the domestic economy against the worst of Western Sanctions.

A rate cut to 9.00% would put policy just below the 9.50% level seen in early February and would mark a full reversal of the 1050bps emergency hike. Price conditions warrant a further easing of rates, with month-on-month CPI now solidly negative and the YTD weekly CPI rate rolling over quickly. This is reflecting in expectations surveys, which, as of this week, showed inflation expectations dropping to the lowest level since in almost 18 months. The pace of deceleration also picked up in July (dropping 160bps to 10.8%), further supporting an easing of policy this month.

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