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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- The Central Bank of Russia are expected to go further in the reversal of their emergency tightening cycle
- Consensus looks for a 100bps rate cut to 10.00%
- A moderation in inflation as well as inflation expectations has given the bank space
Full piece here:
The Central Bank of Russia are expected to go further in the reversal of their emergency tightening cycle with a 100bps rate cut to 10.00% this week. A moderation in inflation as well as inflation expectations has given the bank space to further reverse the 1050bps emergency rate hike that followed the swathe of sanctions from the West at the onset of the Ukraine crisis.
Pervasive currency strength also argues in favour of easier policy, with the government’s FX restrictions on exporters over-achieving in the goal to limit capital flight – hence the gradual easing of these rules over the past few months as the domestic economic situation stabilises. Recent reports suggest the CBR were fully aware of the tightening contribution the stronger RUB made to the domestic economy, and the currency rally may have allowed the central bank to steer clear of tightening rates further than 20%, and has helped with the transition to easier policy (evident in the emergency 300bps rate cut at end-May).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.