Analysts are split over whether the CBR will keep rates unchanged at 16% or deliver a rate hike at this juncture.
At its previous MPC meetings this year, the central bank maintained a hawkish tilt to its communication despite holding rates at 16% at all three meetings, with Governor Nabilluina aknowledging that “if the disinflation process halts, we even might be forced to raise the key rate.” It is not uncommon for the CBR to deliver hawkish surprises to markets. In 2023, the CBR exceeded market expectations with the scale of its rate increases on three occasions, alongside a rate hike at an unscheduled meeting in August. As such, even among the sell-side analysts expecting rates to remain unchanged, potential hawkish outcomes have not been disregarded.
