Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- There is no clear consensus for the outcome of this month’s Central Bank of Russia rate meeting.
- While some analysts predict that stubbornly high inflation and persistent demand-side pressure will warrant a rate hike at this juncture, others note that the CBR have time yet to assess inflation risks, and can therefore keep rates unchanged at 16% this month.
- Deputy Governor Zabotkin stated that the latest data supports tight monetary policy, and that the central bank will consider a rate hike at its meeting in June.
See our full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here:
At its previous MPC meetings this year, the central bank maintained a hawkish tilt to its communication despite holding rates at 16% at all three meetings, with Governor Nabilluina aknowledging that “if the disinflation process halts, we even might be forced to raise the key rate.” It is not uncommon for the CBR to deliver hawkish surprises to markets. In 2023, the CBR exceeded market expectations with the scale of its rate increases on three occasions, alongside a rate hike at an unscheduled meeting in August. As such, even among the sell-side analysts expecting rates to remain unchanged, potential hawkish outcomes have not been disregarded.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.