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Turkey Central Bank
Turkey Central Bank

Executive Summary

  • The CBRT is expected to leave its one-week repo unchanged at 14%, putting an end to its 500bp easing cycle in line with December forward guidance
  • Attention turns to forward guidance on CPI as analysts forecast a surge in headline CPI to 50-55% by May
  • Erdogan's refusal to deliver rate hikes means the policy patch is likely to become more intricate with the use of non-standard fiscal/monetary tools in 1H22
  • Broad consensus aligns with the likelihood that the CBRT will have to act more forcefully or cave to pressures to hike interest rates to tame inflation and lira devaluation as the current measures fail to address Turkey's key underlying issues.

Full Preview Here:

CBRT Preview 20.01.22.pdf

The CBRT is broadly expected to leave its one-week repo unchanged at 14% this week after December’s forward guidance stipulated that the limited room for easing had been completely used up. Policy is expected to become more complicated in the near-term with CPI set to surge above 50% by 2H22, adding pressure on officials to deliver more forceful non-standard measures to re-anchor prices in the absence of rate hikes.

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