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Turkey Central Bank
Turkey Central Bank
Executive Summary
- The CBRT is expected to leave its one-week repo unchanged at 14%, putting an end to its 500bp easing cycle in line with December forward guidance
- Attention turns to forward guidance on CPI as analysts forecast a surge in headline CPI to 50-55% by May
- Erdogan's refusal to deliver rate hikes means the policy patch is likely to become more intricate with the use of non-standard fiscal/monetary tools in 1H22
- Broad consensus aligns with the likelihood that the CBRT will have to act more forcefully or cave to pressures to hike interest rates to tame inflation and lira devaluation as the current measures fail to address Turkey's key underlying issues.
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The CBRT is broadly expected to leave its one-week repo unchanged at 14% this week after December’s forward guidance stipulated that the limited room for easing had been completely used up. Policy is expected to become more complicated in the near-term with CPI set to surge above 50% by 2H22, adding pressure on officials to deliver more forceful non-standard measures to re-anchor prices in the absence of rate hikes.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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