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MNI CBRT Preview - June 2021: Kavcioglu Eyes Market Stabiliser

Turkey Central Bank
Executive Summary:
  • CBRT to keep rates unchanged at 19.00%
  • CPI outlook becoming more constructive against expectations after downside surprise at 16.6% in May
  • Kavcioglu likely to retain prior "hawkish" guidance on above-inflation interest rates to offset increased pressure from Erdogan to ease policy and stabilise TRY
  • Markets remain scepitcal of Kavcioglu's ability to fend off Erdogan for too much longer without risking replacement
Full Preview here:

CBRT Preview 17.06.21.pdf

The CBRT is broadly expected to leave its key rate unchanged at 19.00% this week, despite a surprising, but substantial, moderation in price pressures in May. Governor Kavcioglu will look to deliver a market stabiliser to offset dovish Erdogan comments alluding to premature rate cuts - reiterating the bank's commitment to above-inflation interest rates while cautiously accentuating a more constructive near-term inflation outlook.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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