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MNI CBRT Review: April 2023 - Rates Held as Focus Turns to Elections

Executive summary:
  • The CBRT kept the one-week repo rate unchanged at 8.50%.
  • Sell-side analysts were uniform in seeing no change ahead of the elections on May 14.
  • The accompanying release reiterated that current rates are now “adequate” to support the economy’s recovery in the aftermath of the earthquake.
See the full MNI Review including a summary of sell-side analyst views here:

MNICBRTRevApr23.pdf

The CBRT left the one-week repo rate unchanged at 8.5% in April and have once again described rates as “adequate” having held rates steady in March as well. As expected, the continued participation and intervention from state banks on currency rates muted any notable market reaction. As such, market focus remains on the election and political landscape in the coming weeks, which may prompt a sea change in the currency's behaviour.

The press release reiterated that the level and underlying trend of inflation has been improving in recent months due to the policy approach and again acknowledged threats to global financial stability. The only meaningful change to the statement was the addition of the following line - “Leading indicators show that the economic activity in the earthquake zone has been recovering faster than expected” - in what was an otherwise identical press release to the March edition.

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