Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- The CBRT kept the one-week repo rate unchanged at 9.0%, in-line with sell-side consensus
- Policy statement points to indicators suggesting an improvement in trend inflation and weakening global demand
- CBRT expected to keep rates unchanged in lead-up to election, though risks tilted to the downside
Full preview including summary of sell-side views here:
The CBRT kept the one-week repo rate unchanged at 9.0% for the second consecutive meeting, in-line with unanimous sell-side expectations. In its press statement, the Bank once again pointed to risks in global demand due to recession concerns in developed economies, as well as global geopolitical concerns. The Committee did not comment further on the rate path going forward.
There is unlikely to be a significant pivot in policy until after the Presidential and Parliamentary elections in May, with President Erdogan likely looking for more market and financial stability in the interest of his re-election bid. However, the removal of forward guidance and disinflation in recent and coming months pose downside risks to the repo rate, as these factors may provide the CBRT room to facilitate additional cuts ahead of the elections. Beyond May's election, the CBRT outlook is less clear.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.