MNI CBRT Review - September 2024: Dovish Tweaks to Statement
The CBRT kept its one-week repo rate unchanged at 50%, as expected, but provided a dovish tweak to its policy statement.
Executive Summary:
- The CBRT left its one-week repo rate unchanged at 50%, in-line with unanimous consensus.
- However, the Bank removed explicit reference to the potential for further rate hikes, providing a dovish tilt to the policy statement.
- Some analysts see rate cuts beginning as early as November, while others expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of this year.
See the full review, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here:
The CBRT’s decision to leave the repo rate unchanged was as expected, but greater market focus prior to the decision was on whether any adjustments would be made to its hawkish forward guidance, and specifically, the following line in the policy statement: “Monetary policy stance will be tightened in case a significant and persistent deterioration in inflation is foreseen.” The CBRT decided to remove the line from the statement entirely, a notable dovish pivot. Nevertheless, the rest of the statement struck familiar – and hawkish – tones, noting that “the tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation is observed.”