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Free Access**MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, January 26
**TOP NEWS: December industrial profits gained 10.8% y/y to CNY824.2
billion, lower than the 14.9% growth seen in November. As China's supply-side
reform campaign enters a third year, the capacity-cutting measures are having
less impact on commodity prices and the sectors that have undergone changes.
- Profits of large industrial companies tracked by NBS grew 21% y/y to CNY7.52
trillion in 2017, the highest gain since 2011, dwarfing the 8.5% y/y in 2016.
This was largely due to the effects from the supply-side reform. Limitations
placed on the out-of-favour companies boosted prices of products and hence those
able to continue producing.
- State-owned industrial enterprises were heavily favored by supply-side
reform, as their profits grew 45.1% y/y in 2017, well ahead of the 6.7% growth
seen in 2016. This helped them repay debt, thus reducing non-performing loans
held by banks, most of which are also state-owned.
- Profits of private industrial companies rose 11.7% y/y in 2017, only half the
average growth rate of industrial enterprises. While still higher than the 4.8%
recorded in 2016, the data clearly showed private companies benefitted
significantly less than SOEs from the reform measures.
- The profit margin of industrial enterprises tracked by the NBS was 6.46%,
0.54 percentage point higher than last year.
LIQUIDITY: PBOC skipped its Open Market Operations (OMO) on Friday, stating
that liquidity is at a "relatively high" level that can absorb the impact of
maturing reverse repos.
- Net drain of CNY270 billion today after same amount of reverse repos mature
- For this week, a net drain of CNY320 billion by OMOs, or CNY427 billion
accounting for maturing Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) loans
RATES: Interbank market rates diverged for the day
- 7-day repo average last at 2.9100%, higher than 2.9064% yesterday
- Overnight repo average 2.5226%, down from 2.5394% yesterday.
YUAN: The Chinese yuan climbed to 6.3284 against the U.S. dollar from
yesterday's 6.3350 closing, following today's stronger fixing.
- The PBOC set the yuan central parity rate vs the U.S. dollar at 6.3436, much
stronger than Thursday's 6.3916.
- The PBOC has set the fixing stronger for the week starting on Jan 22, which
helped the fixing gain almost 1.15% against the greenback.
- Today's fixing marks the highest since Nov 5, 2015.
***COMMENT: The weak U.S dollar is in part due to global wealth management
companies investing in non-dollar equity assets, Zhou Hao, economist with
Commerzbank Asia, said Friday in his blog. These groups are buying and holding
non-dollar equities, but with no rush to hedge the risk from by dollar short
position, weighing on the dollar, Zhou noted.
BONDS: Yield on 10-year China government bonds last traded at 3.9250%, down
from 3.9375% close yesterday: Wind Information.
STOCK: The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.28% to 3558.13, while the
Hang Seng Index was last at 33,112.16, up 1.40%.
FROM THE PRESS: China should not hike its benchmark interest rates as its
economy is at risk of a downturn and inflation is benign, the China Securities
Journal reported, citing analysts.
- The PBOC should adjust liquidity conditions in the interbank market by raising
interbank rates in open market operations, the CSJ said. A rate hike may be
feasible under more mature domestic and overseas market conditions, the journal
added.
***COMMENT: The gap between China's real money market rates and policy rates is
widening given the authorities' deleveraging campaign. Meanwhile, the real loan
rates are also rising faster that the benchmark interest rates, causing two
distortions that need to be addressed.
Opening up China's financial markets should be in line with economic growth
and development of its financial systems, and reforming the sector too quickly
or immaturely introduces risks, the Economic Information Daily reported, citing
industry analysts' reaction to senior leader Liu He's speech in Davos.
- Liu said this week that China will allow access to its markets at a pace
exceeding the world's expectations.
- Tackling China's risks with shadow banking and local government debt will
remain a priority, newspaper cited industry analysts.
***COMMENT: Xinhua is advocating caution. There is probably dissent on giving
too much financial-market access to overseas players, or at least access too
soon. Policy makers will have to balance these interests, so Liu's words
shouldn't be taken as a promise.
Global leaders and investors bullish on China will be on the right side
history, the official English-language mouthpiece China Daily said on Friday in
an editorial. The newspaper blasted Western investors and commentators who
shorted or were pessimistic on China. They are still looking at China through
ideologically tinted glasses, holding views out of "perennial bias, arrogance
and complacency," it said.
***COMMENT: It's unusual for the government publication China Daily, which
normally tries to sound more business-like, to be openly combative. China may be
firing warning shots to those gathered in Davos, especially given the anti-China
rhetoric by the Trump administration.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532 5998; email: marissa.wang@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$A$$$,M$Q$$$,MBQ$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.