MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, May 31

POLICY: China should diversify its investment destinations by strengthening ties with countries under the One Belt One Road initiative, a People's Bank of China official said at the Qvjiang Forum, adding that such a move would help adjust unbalanced global development due to the Covid-19 pandemic. China can transfer some of its lower-value-added and labour-intensive industries to OBOR countries, which can also be investment destinations for its large savings, said Zhou Yu, deputy director of the international department of the PBOC, on Saturday.

DATA: China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 51.0 in May from April's 51.1, still managing to stay above the breakeven 50.0 level for the 15th straight month, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. The gauge showed that factory activities were busy though demand slowed. May's PMI was higher than the same period in 2019 and 2020.

LIQUIDITY: The PBOC injected CNY10 billion via 7-day reverse repos with the rate unchanged at 2.2%. The operation left liquidity unchanged given it netted off CNY10 billion reverse repos maturing today, according to Wind Information. The operation aims to keep liquidity reasonable and ample, the PBOC said on its website.

RATES: The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) rose to 2.5786% from 2.3086% on Friday, Wind Information showed. The overnight repo average increased to 2.2829% from the previous 2.1636%.

YUAN: The currency strengthened to 6.3607 against the dollar from 6.3671 on Friday. The PBOC set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 6.3682, compared with the 6.3858 set on Friday, marking the strongest fixing since May 17, 2018.

BONDS: The yield on 10-year China Government Bond was last at 3.0725%, down from Friday's close of 3.0825%, according to Wind Information.

STOCKS: The Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.41% to 3,615.48 while the CSI300 index rose 0.20% to 5,331.57. Hang Seng Index gained 0.09% to 29,151.80.

FROM THE PRESS: The Chinese yuan may weaken against the dollar should the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to control inflation, or if the U.S. economy rebounds sharply, the PBOC-run Financial News said in a commentary. The Fed's withdrawal from easing may deflate asset bubbles, cause a sharp adjustment in U.S. asset prices, and trigger risk aversion in the global markets, it said. In turn, funds may flow back to the U.S. and thus lift the dollar index, the newspaper said. China's exports may also weaken as overseas supply capacity increases, further pressuring the yuan, the newspaper said. Yuan rose above 6.36 against the dollar last week, the highest in more than three years.

The Chinese yuan will remain strong in the short term after breaking 6.4 against the U.S. dollar, but room for further appreciation may be limited and it may weaken slightly in the second half as domestic growth momentum slows, according to a report by CICC. The current account surplus may narrow in the following months as Chinese exporters face declining profits amid rising raw material prices, FX exchange and freight costs while overseas production capacity gradually recovers, the report said. Capital inflow will also fluctuate as China-U.S. rate spreads are unlikely to widen further, the report said.

The PBOC may increase liquidity injection through daily reverse repos in June if market rates rise as local government special bond issuances peak and rising PPI fuel tightening expectation, the Securities Daily reported citing Wang Qing, chief analyst at Golden Credit Rating. New special bonds could reach up to CNY800 billion in June, compared to CNY351.9 billion in May, the daily cited Wang as saying. The PBOC has continued to inject a small amount of CNY10 billion daily via 7-day reverse repos since May, seeking to guide the market rates around the current policy rates of 2.2% the newspaper said.

The world should strengthen cooperation to prevent financial risks, improve cross-border capital management policy tools and the monitoring system for cross-border capital flow so to prevent hot money from disrupting emerging markets, Caixin reported citing Liang Tao, vice chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. Liang warned that financial vulnerabilities have increased, and great attention should be given to the rapid rise of U.S. bond yields and surging commodity prices, said Caixin.