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MNI China Press Digest Jan 18: Rate Cuts, H2 Rebound, Property

MNI (Singapore)
BEIJING (MNI)

The following lists highlights from Chinese press reports on Tuesday:

  • The People's Bank of China may cut by 10 bps its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates on Jan. 20, a stronger easing signal than a 10-bps cut to 1-year LPR alone in December, China.com.cn reported citing Wen Bin, the chief researcher at China Minsheng Bank. The reduction in loan references became expected by the market after the central bank on Monday cut both the 7-day reverse repo rate, a short-term interbank borrowing reference, and the 1-year medium-term lending facilities (MLF). The expected move will implement policymakers’ call for urgent countermeasures to arrest the current slowdown, which must rely on investments, it said. Thursday’s reduction in 5-year LPR will help lower medium-to-long term loan costs, which fund major infrastructure investments, the report said citing Zeng Gang, the deputy director of the National Institution for Finance & Development.
  • China’s economy, currently at its slowest, should begin to rebound in H2 after stabilizing in Q2, helped by the slew of monetary and fiscal policies that have been introduced, Sheng Songcheng, a former director of the statistics department at the People's Bank of China, told China National Radio after the central bank on Monday cut both medium and short-term loan benchmarks. China should introduce more forceful countercyclical measures, including rate cuts, before March, when the Federal Reserve probably begins rate hike, expected to pressure the yuan and draw capital away from China markets, Sheng said.
  • China’s property investments may shrink by as much as 10% in 2022, dragging down overall growth, Yicai.com reported citing a research organization it didn’t identify. Including development, construction materials and all other segments, the property account for 20% of the country’s GDP, Yicai said. Should the total property investment decline by 8% this year, it can shave 2.7 percentage points off overall growth, given the effect of declining wealth and fiscal revenues, etc., Yicai said. The situation will worsen from last year, when the property sector still contributed to 0.4 pp growth in full-year GDP despite a rapid slowdown in H2, the news site said citing official data.
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