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MNI China Press Digest July 6: 4.8% GDP, CPI, Less Liquidity

MNI picks keys stories from today's China press

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The following lists highlights from Chinese press reports on Wednesday:

  • The Chinese economy may grow 4.8% in 2022, given that the additional credit of CNY800 billion by policy banks would largely stimulate infrastructure investment, wrote Lian Ping, dean of Zhixin Investment Research Institute in an article published by NetEase News. Retail sales may reverse the current decline in Q3, likely to grow about 2% throughout the year, said Lian. The annual growth is still likely to reach 5% or even meet the expected target of “around 5.5%”, should investment, consumption and exports all be significantly better than expected, said Lian. The rising possibility for the U.S. to remove some additional tariffs on Chinese goods may help to boost exports against weakening external demand, Lian added.
  • China’s consumer price index likely rose 2.4% in June from May’s 2.1% amid rapidly higher pork prices, as breeding companies are reluctant to sell when the prices are seen bullish, the Securities Dailly reported citing analysts. The average wholesale price of pork nationwide is CNY26.69 per kilogram on Tuesday, which has increased by about 26% from June 1, the newspaper said citing data by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. The National Development and Reform Commission is releasing pork reserves and meeting with major breeding companies to safeguard supply and stabilise prices this week, the newspaper said. China is set to release the latest CPI data on Saturday.
  • Shrinking liquidity injections by the People’s Bank of China via open market operations is signaling that capital market interest rates may gradually return to policy interest rates, with a marginal tightening of liquidity, the 21st Century Business Herald reported citing analysts. This is more of the central bank's active response to tame the risk of weakening control over the banking system and rising bond market leverage, the newspaper said citing Gao Yu, chief analysts of Zheshang Securities. The PBOC only injected CNY3 billion seven-day reverse repos each day starting this week, much lower than the CNY100 billion daily injections in end-June, the newspaper said. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 closed at 1.5703% on Tuesday, still significantly lower than the central bank’s seven-day reverse repo rate of 2.1%, the newspaper said.
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The following lists highlights from Chinese press reports on Wednesday:

  • The Chinese economy may grow 4.8% in 2022, given that the additional credit of CNY800 billion by policy banks would largely stimulate infrastructure investment, wrote Lian Ping, dean of Zhixin Investment Research Institute in an article published by NetEase News. Retail sales may reverse the current decline in Q3, likely to grow about 2% throughout the year, said Lian. The annual growth is still likely to reach 5% or even meet the expected target of “around 5.5%”, should investment, consumption and exports all be significantly better than expected, said Lian. The rising possibility for the U.S. to remove some additional tariffs on Chinese goods may help to boost exports against weakening external demand, Lian added.
  • China’s consumer price index likely rose 2.4% in June from May’s 2.1% amid rapidly higher pork prices, as breeding companies are reluctant to sell when the prices are seen bullish, the Securities Dailly reported citing analysts. The average wholesale price of pork nationwide is CNY26.69 per kilogram on Tuesday, which has increased by about 26% from June 1, the newspaper said citing data by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. The National Development and Reform Commission is releasing pork reserves and meeting with major breeding companies to safeguard supply and stabilise prices this week, the newspaper said. China is set to release the latest CPI data on Saturday.
  • Shrinking liquidity injections by the People’s Bank of China via open market operations is signaling that capital market interest rates may gradually return to policy interest rates, with a marginal tightening of liquidity, the 21st Century Business Herald reported citing analysts. This is more of the central bank's active response to tame the risk of weakening control over the banking system and rising bond market leverage, the newspaper said citing Gao Yu, chief analysts of Zheshang Securities. The PBOC only injected CNY3 billion seven-day reverse repos each day starting this week, much lower than the CNY100 billion daily injections in end-June, the newspaper said. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 closed at 1.5703% on Tuesday, still significantly lower than the central bank’s seven-day reverse repo rate of 2.1%, the newspaper said.