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MNI China Press Digest July 24: Fiscal, Yuan, Retail Sales

MNI (BEIJING)
BEIJING (MNI)

MNI picks keys stories from today's China press

Central Bank NewsPolicy NewsPBOCHomepageAPACChinaEM Policy NewsEM Policy StoryEM Central Bank NewsPeoples Bank of ChinaPolicy StoryStoryRegion
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Highlights from Chinese press reports on Wednesday:

  • China may issue additional government bonds to deliver fiscal spending targets this year, due to declining tax and local land sales revenue, China Securities Journal reported, citing Zhang Bin, deputy director at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Authorities can expand fiscal funds by issuing more special refinancing bonds, increasing pledged supplementary loans to leverage key construction projects, and revitalising state-owned assets, said Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank.
  • The yuan will likely fluctuate between 7.1-7.3 against the U.S. dollar in H2, as China’s good economic fundamentals and rich exchange-rate management tools ensure basic stability, Securities Daily reported, citing Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank. China’s large trade surplus and sufficient FX reserves will provide support, while U.S. Federal Reserve cuts expected in September will weaken external constraints, said Wang Youxin, senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute.
  • China’s retail sales growth will pick up in H2 as government policy to replace consumer goods takes effect, according to a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences report. Manufacturing investment will remain strong, but local government financial tightness will drag on infrastructure investment. Authorities should support real estate by issuing treasury bonds for local governments to purchase housing and allow first-tier cities to cancel purchase and loan restrictions. Provincial governments can improve developer financing by directly investing in top firms, the report added. (Source: 21st Century Herald)
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Highlights from Chinese press reports on Wednesday:

  • China may issue additional government bonds to deliver fiscal spending targets this year, due to declining tax and local land sales revenue, China Securities Journal reported, citing Zhang Bin, deputy director at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Authorities can expand fiscal funds by issuing more special refinancing bonds, increasing pledged supplementary loans to leverage key construction projects, and revitalising state-owned assets, said Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank.
  • The yuan will likely fluctuate between 7.1-7.3 against the U.S. dollar in H2, as China’s good economic fundamentals and rich exchange-rate management tools ensure basic stability, Securities Daily reported, citing Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank. China’s large trade surplus and sufficient FX reserves will provide support, while U.S. Federal Reserve cuts expected in September will weaken external constraints, said Wang Youxin, senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute.
  • China’s retail sales growth will pick up in H2 as government policy to replace consumer goods takes effect, according to a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences report. Manufacturing investment will remain strong, but local government financial tightness will drag on infrastructure investment. Authorities should support real estate by issuing treasury bonds for local governments to purchase housing and allow first-tier cities to cancel purchase and loan restrictions. Provincial governments can improve developer financing by directly investing in top firms, the report added. (Source: 21st Century Herald)