Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- The CNB are seen keeping policy rates unchanged again in November, with vocal majority against further tightening
- This leaves a hawkish minority (Mora, Holub), despite CPI re-accelerating in September
- Consensus building around no further changes this year, leaving window open to rate cuts in H2'23
Inflation slipped to 17.2% from 17.5% in August, which will have bolstered the majority’s view of transitory inflation. This pullback in price pressures has not persisted however, with the September release at a new series high of 18.0%. Nonetheless, CPI turnouts hold below the bank’s assumptions of a 19.3% clip, and as base effects slip into the calculations, it’s likely CPI will moderate further from here – again the assumption of the majority of the rate-setting members.
The front page of the CNB website showcases the division among the board nicely. The website lists four MPC member interviews, three of which are transparently tilted against further rate hikes: “Zamrazilová – Seven per cent is high enough”, “Kubelková – We’re around peak inflation”, “Dědek – The interest rate differential seems sufficient for now”.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.