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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI Colombia Central Bank Preview - Jan 2024
MNI Colombia Central Bank Preview - Jan 2024
Executive Summary
- Analysts are divided over whether the Colombian central bank will cut rates by 25bps to 12.75% or if the BanRep board will choose to accelerate the pace of easing and cut the overnight lending rate by 50bps to 12.50%.
- Stubbornly high levels of both headline and core inflation, combined with improving expectations and weaker-than-expected economic activity will likely prompt further substantial debate among the committee and another split vote on the rate decision is likely.
- BanRep will also release the Monetary Policy Report for Q4 2023 on February 2, where BanRep’s technical staff will update their forecasts for headline & core inflation, GDP growth, the output gap, and the current account over the relevant horizon for monetary policy.
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MNI Colombia Central Bank Preview - Jan 2024.pdf
Substantial Improvement for Inflation Expectations
The most recent economist survey from the central bank showed an impressive improvement of the 1-year ahead inflation outlook. CPI expectations declined by a substantial 53bp to 5.17%, thus keeping the 1-year ahead real ex-ante rate well above BanRep’s 2.4% neutral estimate. In terms of monetary policy, most analysts now expect a 50bp rate cut at the January policy meeting, although a significant minority (44.7%) still look for another 25bp reduction. Year-end rate expectations remain unchanged at 8.25%.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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