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MNI Commodity Analysis: Chinese Commodity Indicators Show Signs of Weakness

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airplane in midair at daytime


Executive summary:

  • The Chinese economic rebound has shown further signs of wavering as it recovers from lockdowns. It remains the main focus for oil demand growth expectations in 2023, but questions are being asked whether bullish oil demand growth expectations were overly optimistic in the first half of the year as Wall Street banks cut oil price outlooks.
  • Chinese jet fuel demand has regularly been cited as one of the main growth areas for global oil demand in the remainder of 2023 but its international travel is struggling to recover like its domestic. Russia has banned Europe/US/ “unfriendly nations” from flying over its air space to get to China which has slammed flight schedules in a longer term hit to international travel and consequently – jet fuel demand.
  • The most recent Chinese crude import figures appear bullish, but due to the lag effect based on their purchase timing versus arrival are more of a reflection of prior more optimistic sentiment. Growing Chinese onshore stockpiles against a backdrop of sluggish recovery are likely to weigh on Chinese crude imports looking ahead to July.


    • Full piece here:


    MNI Commodity Analysis - Chinese Commodity Indicators Show Signs of Weakness.pdf




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