MNI Commodity Analysis: Chinese Refiners Curtailed by Quotas

Executive Summary:

As Chinese refiners near the end of the year, the impact of languishing quotas becomes more prominent. The end of year backdrop for China represents a more bearish situation for global oil markets – a key factor under consideration for OPEC+ as they deliberate 2024 output levels this week.

• China refiners had been hoping for a fourth batch of export quotas of about 5 million mt for clean products at the end of September, but it seemed a stretch even at that point and there appears to be little sign of them receiving any end of year boost.
  
• China’s Sinopec is reported to have asked for a boost to clean export quotas because of overflowing supplies at refineries according to Bloomberg reports, indicating an inability to clear the volumes domestically.
• China reportedly issued a fourth batch of 2023 crude oil import quotas in early October, raising the volume for the year to 203.64 million metric tons, three refinery sources said to Reuters. That is up 14% from last year's 179 million tons.
• Despite the extra batch, record refinery runs have pressed supplies. Independent refiners have been served a boost with an extra 3mn tons of fuel oil import quotas November to be used as feedstock.

Full piece here:

MNI Commodity Analysis - Chinese Refiners Curtailed by Quotas.pdf