MNI: Copper Prices To Fall, Chinese Demand To Remain Flat
China's demand for copper in 2024 will hold steady despite a range of factors impacting the commodity locally and internationally.
China’s copper demand will remain roughly unchanged over 2024 at single digit percentage growth over 2023 levels despite recent property-sector support and a historic global price rally, while reports of official domestic smelter output cuts are yet to materialise, local analysts have told MNI.
Gu Fengda, nonferrous metals chief analyst at Guoxin Futures, said LME copper prices should trend down to between USD9,300 to USD9,500 per tonne by December, following May's historic high of USD11,104. China’s copper demand growth will hold flat at about 5% y/y driven by strong industrial output, which grew 6.7% in April, Gu added.
The copper market had likely overestimated how much government measures would boost demand, Gu said, pointing to the 2.8% rise in prices following the unveiling of Beijing's property market stimulus last Friday.
He warned geopolitical trade fragmentation, stronger industrial policies worldwide and resource scarcity will increase market uncertainty and drive price volatility.
Ming Gong, a copper analyst at Jinrui Futures, said Beijing’s real-estate measures would provide only marginal support and new energy industries will drive future demand, which will likely grow at about 4%, unchanged from Q1 forecasts.
Non-macro related factors such as rising geopolitical tensions and increasing gold and crude oil prices had driven the global commodities rally, Ming added.
OUTPUT CUTS
Higher global concentrate prices in April-May drove a 14 percentage point y/y fall in China’s smelting operating capacity to 73% as downstream orders decreased, but greater use of recycled copper mitigated supply impacts, Ming said.
Industry discussions in March about possible smelter output cuts aimed at addressing low treatment costs — an indicator of tight concentrate supply — had created market unease and added support to copper prices, a Mysteel analyst told MNI.
However, Gu believes the discussions have not fully addressed the excessive newly built smelting capacity, which had exacerbated concentrate shortages, but smelters had passively began cutting output in some cases.
The rapid smelting capacity expansion drove a 6.9% y/y increase to 9.3 million metric tonnes of copper ore and concentrate imports during the first four months of 2024, Gu noted, adding imports will remain high for at least the next two years.
China's copper cathode output reached 985,100mt in April, up 1.44% m/m, according to data provider Shanghai Metals Market. (See MNI: China H2 Commodities Demand To Show Mixed Sector Performance)