CANADA OCT JOBS +14.5K VS FORECAST +25K, PRIOR +46.7K

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Support Credit In Key Sectors: Q3 Report

MNI BRIEF: China To Prohibit New Hidden Debt -Finance Ministry

MNI BRIEF: China Unveils CNY6 Trl Limit For Hidden Debt

MNI BRIEF: CBRT Raises Medium-Term Inflation Forecast

MNI BRIEF: China To Boost Countercyclical Effort - Minister

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: NE, UK, DE Auction on Tuesday

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.14B BSL

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY NOV INDEX 73.0

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

EUROPEAN FISCAL: DE 2025 Budget Gap Grows; Political Risk Is Rising

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI Credit Weekly: Back to the Ballot

AnalysisCredit AnalysisHomepageCreditStory

Executive Summary: Back to the Ballot

  • Just as one election completed, another appears to be coming. Credit rallied 5bp but only 1bp tighter to swaps. For all the talk of Trump trades in the equity market, credit impact was quite limited although reverse Yankees outperformed.
  • Vix collapsed post-US Election, falling to 14.9 from above 23 earlier in the week. US Small caps led the rally in equities, rising 7.7%, as tariffs were seen as benefiting domestic firms. Conversely, Euro Stoxx fell 0.9%.
  • Central Bank cuts by the Fed and BoE were overshadowed by the US election. The dollar market is now pricing in another 3.1 cuts out to September ’25 and the sterling market 2.6 cuts. The ECB next meets on 12th December; a faster pace of cuts is expected with 5.2 priced in out to September ’25. Bunds had a volatile week with the German government’s collapse adding to the sell-off, with the curve pivoting steeper around the 7yr point.
  • Primary markets were sidelined with just one corporate deal (Bureau Veritas) and three financials. Issuance should return next week with earnings season ending and the US election resolved. 

Full piece here:24.11.08 MNI Credit Weekly.pdf

191 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Executive Summary: Back to the Ballot

  • Just as one election completed, another appears to be coming. Credit rallied 5bp but only 1bp tighter to swaps. For all the talk of Trump trades in the equity market, credit impact was quite limited although reverse Yankees outperformed.
  • Vix collapsed post-US Election, falling to 14.9 from above 23 earlier in the week. US Small caps led the rally in equities, rising 7.7%, as tariffs were seen as benefiting domestic firms. Conversely, Euro Stoxx fell 0.9%.
  • Central Bank cuts by the Fed and BoE were overshadowed by the US election. The dollar market is now pricing in another 3.1 cuts out to September ’25 and the sterling market 2.6 cuts. The ECB next meets on 12th December; a faster pace of cuts is expected with 5.2 priced in out to September ’25. Bunds had a volatile week with the German government’s collapse adding to the sell-off, with the curve pivoting steeper around the 7yr point.
  • Primary markets were sidelined with just one corporate deal (Bureau Veritas) and three financials. Issuance should return next week with earnings season ending and the US election resolved. 

Full piece here:24.11.08 MNI Credit Weekly.pdf