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MNI Credit Weekly: On Shakier Ground

Executive Summary: On Shakier Ground

  • While volatility remains subdued, spreads widened slightly over the week. Signs are building that caution is warranted with spreads at the tights; US BBB spreads are in the 1st centile, and IG cash dispersion is at new lows for the cycle. Primary and flow data points to cooling sentiment, while hoped-for rate cuts still can’t be taken for granted.
  • Spreads widened 2.3bp overall, partially explained by swap spreads. Financials and Tech were marginal underperformers. CPI Property at +80bp is a sobering reminder of downside on adverse events here.
  • Primary kept up the pace with a busy start to the week before yesterday’s ECB meeting. NICs are increasing, while book covers are ticking down. Issuers seem understandably opportunistic here and supply should continue through June market conditions permitting.
  • Fund flows were slightly negative in Europe but positive in the US.
  • Macro oscillated on conflicting growth signals and a hawkish cut from the ECB, with this afternoon’s strong NFP print taking bund yields from lower to higher for the week.
Full piece here:

24.06.07 MNI Credit Weekly.pdf

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