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MNI Credit Weekly: Shifting Gears

MNI (LONDON) - Executive Summary: Shifting Gears

  • The casual observer could be forgiven for looking at iTraxx and assuming an uneventful week in credit. Investors continue to reassess automotive risk as long-standing concerns are finally playing out in profit warnings and stakeholder friction. Dispersion looks set to remain elevated at this point in the cycle.

     

  • While the ECB decision was no surprise, Lagarde’s non-committal stance brought a hawkish surprise to the EGB market. Meanwhile, press reports helped increase pricing of a 50bp cut from the FOMC. Our policy team continues to see a gradual pace as more likely.

     

  • Primary slowed significantly from last week with the ECB meeting on Thursday closing the window early. Primary survey expectations are similar to last week, with the actual number having undershot this week.

     

  • All flavours of credit continue to see inflows, albeit at a moderating pace.

    Full piece here: 24.09.13 MNI Credit Weekly.pdf
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