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MNI Credit Weekly: The Hangover

A week of spread widening, reversing some of the recent strength
AnalysisCredit AnalysisHomepageCreditStory

Executive Summary: The Hangover

  • Spreads reversed some recent strength this week. Following an initially bullish reaction to the certainty provided by the US election outcome, the Trump narrative has tilted again. Tariff fears reemerged as cabinet picks bolstered the belief that the incoming President intends to carry out campaign promises. Against a backdrop of a slowing economy in Europe, local cyclical names are feeling the pressure. Escalations in Ukraine also contributed to the risk-off move.
  • Bund yields continue to diverge from treasuries, with fresh growth concerns prompted by today’s PMIs. US policy concerns are keeping inflation fears elevated there.
  • Fund flows moderated to come in flat for EUR, while USD saw inflows with a skew back to IG.

  • Primary had an average week and came with some signs of indigestion; book cover and NIC metrics deteriorated slightly.

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Executive Summary: The Hangover

  • Spreads reversed some recent strength this week. Following an initially bullish reaction to the certainty provided by the US election outcome, the Trump narrative has tilted again. Tariff fears reemerged as cabinet picks bolstered the belief that the incoming President intends to carry out campaign promises. Against a backdrop of a slowing economy in Europe, local cyclical names are feeling the pressure. Escalations in Ukraine also contributed to the risk-off move.
  • Bund yields continue to diverge from treasuries, with fresh growth concerns prompted by today’s PMIs. US policy concerns are keeping inflation fears elevated there.
  • Fund flows moderated to come in flat for EUR, while USD saw inflows with a skew back to IG.

  • Primary had an average week and came with some signs of indigestion; book cover and NIC metrics deteriorated slightly.

Keep reading...Show less