MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equities Remain Above Support

Price Signal Summary - Equities Remain Above Support

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis remain below Tuesday's high print of 4179.50. Futures have also tested the 50-day EMA and the average continues to provide support. Last week's low of 4029.25 marks the key short-term support. The outlook remains bullish.
• In the FX space, EURUSD traded higher this week and probed key resistance at 1.2243, Feb 25 high. An extension of gains would open 1.2285, Jan 8 high. GBPUSD remains bullish. Attention is on 1.4237, Feb 24 high and this year's high. USDJPY support has been defined at 108.34, May 7 low. A bullish theme remains intact while support holds and attention is on 109.79, May 13 high. A break of 108.34 however would highlight a trendline break drawn off the Jan 6 low and risk a deeper pullback.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains bullish. The focus is on $1892.7, 76.4% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. Oil has entered a corrective cycle. Brent (N1) has breached its 50-day EMA. The focus is on support at $63.93 Apr 26 low. WTI is softer. The focus is on $60.61, Apr 22 low.
• In the FI space, Bunds (M1) traded lower Wednesday and cleared support at 168.59, May 13 low. This confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend and opens 168.09, 0.764 projection of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing. Near-term risk in Gilts (M1) is still skewed to the downside. The key support and bear trigger is 126.79, Mar 18 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 1.2414 High Apr 17, 2018
• RES 3: 1.2353 High Apr 20, 2018
• RES 2: 1.2285 High Jan 8
• RES 1: 1.2245 High May 19
• PRICE: 1.2233 @ 05:41 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 1.2126 Low May 17
• SUP 2: 1.2052 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2046 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.1986 Low May 5 and key short-term support

EURUSD outlook is unchanged and remains bullish following the recovery last week from 1.2052, May 13 low. The pair also rallied Wednesday to a high print of 1.2245 before pulling back. An extension higher would open 1.2285, Jan 8 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 1.2052, May 13 low while initial support is at 1.2126, the May 17 low. A break of the former would signal a top.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.4390 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 2018
• RES 2: 1.4237 High Feb 24 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.4220 High May 18
• PRICE: 1.4183 @ 05:48 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 1.4100 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 1.4006/3972 Low May 13 / Low May 10
• SUP 3: 1.3930 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3801 Low May 3 and a key support

The GBPUSD outlook remains bullish. Price action recently cleared a number of resistance levels, reinforcing a positive theme with sights set on resistance at 1.4237, Feb 24 high. Clearance of this level would reinforce a bullish case and confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend that started March 2020. On the downside, initial firm support is unchanged at 1.4006, May 13 low. A break of this level would suggest scope for a deeper pullback.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8785/91 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Feb 12
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
• RES 1: 0.8648 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8626 @ 05:53 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 0.8561 Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8441 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP continues to consolidate, a bearish theme remains intact though following last week's weakness and low print on May 12 of 0.8561. The move lower saw the cross move out of its recent range. This suggests scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards the key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. On the upside, the key resistance and bull trigger is unchanged at 0.8721, Apr 26 high. Initial resistance is at 0.8649, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing Trendline Support

• RES 4: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 109.96 High Apr 9
• RES 1: 109.79 High May 13
• PRICE: 108.76 @ 05:56 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 108.34 Low May 7 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally

USDJPY maintains a bullish outlook but has struggled this week to hold onto recent gains. The pair rallied last week and defined a firm support at 108.34, May 7 low. Attention is on 109.96, Apr 9 high with potential for a climb above 110.00. Note that the recovery last week means trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low remains intact although the trendline is again under pressure. A break of 108.34 would threaten the uptrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In Charge

• RES 4: 134.80 High Feb 8, 2018
• RES 3: 134.19 1.618 proj of Jun-Sep-Oct 2020 swing
• RES 2: 134.12 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
• RES 1: 133.44 High May 19
• PRICE: 133.10 @ 07:11 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 132.37 High Apr 29 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 131.69 Low May 12
• SUP 3: 130.99 Low May 5 and a key support
• SUP 4: 130.60 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY bulls remain in control. This week's climb reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for further gains within the bull channel drawn off the Oct 30 2020 low. The top of the channel intersects at 134.12. Moving average studies are still pointing north, reinforcing current conditions. Initial firm support lies at 131.69, May 12 low. A firmer trend support is found at 130.99, May 5 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7936 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.7891/95 High May 10 / 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.7813/46 High May 18 / High May 12
• PRICE: 0.7757 @ 06:14 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 0.7688 Low May 13
• SUP 2: 0.7675 Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 0.7586 Low Apr 13

AUDUSD remains within its recent range. A bearish theme dominates, following last week's move lower to 0.7688 on May 13. A firm support zone has been defined at 0.7688-75, the latter is the May 4 low. Clearance of this zone would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7586, the Apr 13 low. Initial firm resistance is at 0.7813, May 18 high ahead of the key resistance at 0.7891, May 10 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Remains Down

• RES 4: 1.2491 High Apr 26
• RES 3: 1.2419 High Apr 27
• RES 2: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2203/2288 High May 13 / High May 6
• PRICE: 1.2070 @ 06:17 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 1.2013 Low May 18
• SUP 2: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 1.1920 Low May 2015
• SUP 4: 1.1864 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD traded lower Thursday. The recent key technical development has been the test below major support at 1.2062, Sep 2017 low. This represents an important pivot chart point that either marks the base of a broad range or the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern. A clear break lower would reinforce the current downtrend and open 1.2000 and below. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2203, May 13 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 171.62 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 171.27 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 170.98 High May 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 169.35/71 High May 17 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 168.83 @ 05:02 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 168.29 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 168.09 0.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 167.52 Low Mar 19, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 167.55 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Bund futures traded lower Wednesday and cleared support at 168.59, May 13 low. This confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend and reinforces current bearish conditions. The move lower opens 168.09, a Fibonacci projection and 167.55, the lower band of a volatility based indicator. On the upside, initial resistance is at 169.35, May 17 high. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Attention Is On The February Low

• RES 4: 135.050 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 135.040 High May 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 134.870 High May 10
• RES 1: 134.510/621 High May 17 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.300 @ 05:00 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 134.180 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 134.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 133.340 Low Mar 19, 2020 (cont)

Bobl futures touched a new cycle low of 134.190 Monday. This reinforced the bearish cycle that started Mar 25. Prices moved lower again Wednesday, resuming the downleg, signalling scope for weakness towards end-Feb lows next. Support is layered between 134.00-134.14. Clearance of this zone would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Key short-term resistance is at 134.510, May 17 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Consolidating

• RES 4: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 2: 112.110/120 High May 4, 5, and 6 / High Apr 22
• RES 1: 112.040/056 High May 17, 19 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 112.025 @ 05:13 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 112.000 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 111.940 Low Feb 26 ad key support
• SUP 4: 111.860 Low Apr 15, 2019 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone following the recent sell-off that started May 5 and resumption of the bearish cycle from Mar 25. The move lower resulted in a break of 112.060, a level that provided support in March and April. The clear break strengthens a bearish case and paves the way for weakness below 112.00 and towards 111.940, Feb 26 low. On the upside, a breach of 112.110 is required to signal a reversal.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 3: 129.09/27 High Apr 23 and the reversal trigger / High Mar 2
• RES 2: 128.80 High May 7 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 128.08 High May 11
• PRICE: 127.73 @ Close May 20
• SUP 1: 126.86 Low May 13
• SUP 2: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.39 1.0% 10-dma Envelope

The Gilt futures technical outlook remains bearish. The pullback from 128.80, May 7 high and last week's follow through reinforce bearish conditions. The move lower resulted in a break of support between 127.40 and 127.32, Apr 29 and Apr 1 lows respectively. This exposes the major support at 126.79, Mar 18 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of 126.79 would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial firm resistance is 128.80.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 147.79 High May 4 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 147.33 High May 7
• RES 2: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 145.96 High May 13
• PRICE: 145 65 @ Close May 21
• SUP 1: 144.48 Low May 17
• SUP 2: 144.16 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - 26 - Mar 11 price swing
• SUP 3: 144.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 143.61 Low Jul 13, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures remain in a clear downtrend following this week's extension lower that resulted in a fresh 2021 low of 144.48 Wednesday. Yesterday's bounce is considered corrective. The recent break of 146.84, Feb 26 low confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle from Feb 12. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too, reinforcing current conditions. Attention is on 144.16, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is 146.84.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4140.00 High Jan 18, 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4099.00 1.00 proj of of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 4036.00 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 3999.00 @ 05:30 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 3886.25/00 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 2: 3844.00 Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3821.00 High Mar 18 and recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 3727.00 Low Mar 25

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain below recent highs but a bullish theme remains intact. The contract has defined a key support at 3844.00, May 13 low. A continued test of the 50-day EMA has failed to result in a clear break of the average. The EMA represents a key trend support reference and intersects at 3886.25. A breach of 4036.00, May 10 high would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Sub 3844.00 levels are required to signal a top.

E-MINI S&P (M1): Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4267.93 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4239.26 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing
• RES 2: 4238.25 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4179.50 High May 18
• PRICE: 4162.75 @ 05:37 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 4055.60 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 4029.25 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 4021.00 Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 39540.29 100-dma

S&P E-minis earlier this week pulled away from the high print Tuesday of 4179.50. Futures also tested the 50-day EMA at 4074.26 that represents an important area of support. Last week's low of 4029.25 however marks the key short-term support where a break is required to signal a top and highlight the potential for a deeper pullback. A break above 4179.50 would offset any recent bearish concerns and refocus attention on 4238.25, the bull trigger.

BRENT TECHS: (N1) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $71.95 - High Sep 16, 2019 (cont)
• RES 3: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: $70.24 - High May 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $68.46 - High May 19
• PRICE: $65.32 @ 06:15 BST May 21
• SUP 1: $64.80 - Low May 20
• SUP 2: $63.93 - Low Apr 26 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $62.00 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: $60.93 - Low Apr 5

Brent crude faced selling pressure again Thursday. The current pullback though is considered a correction with the underlying uptrend intact. Price has breached the 50-day EMA and further weakness would signal scope for a deeper pullback. The focus is on support at $63.93 Apr 26 low. Key resistance is $70.24, May 18 high. A move through this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (M1) Testing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $67.95 - High Oct 29, 2018
• RES 2: $67.29 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $65.35/67.01 - High May 19 / High May 18
• PRICE: $62.26 @ 06:20 BST May 21
• SUP 1: $61.67 - Low May 19
• SUP 2: $60.61 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $58.77 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: $57.68 - Low Apr 5

WTI crude has entered a corrective phase and faced selling pressure again Thursday. Price has traded through support at $63.09, May 13 low. This has also resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA. The EMA intersects at $62.32 and a clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards $60.61, Apr 22 low. The key resistance zone is $67.01/29. A breach of this area would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Holding Onto Gains

• RES 4: $1927.7 - High Jan 7
• RES 3: $1917.6 - High Jan 8
• RES 2: $1892.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• RES 1: $1890.1 - High May 19
• PRICE: $1875.3 @ 06:42 BST May 21
• SUP 1: $1841.3 - Low May 17
• SUP 2: $1808.9 - Low May 13
• SUP 3: $1795.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1764.3 - Low Apr 30

Gold traded higher this week, confirming a resumption of the underlying uptrend as the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows extends. Price action has cleared $1851.5, a Fibonacci retracement and 1875.7, the Jan 29 high. Attention is on $1829.7, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $1808.9, May 13 low. A break would be bearish.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $30.100 - High Feb 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: $30.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $29.053 - High Feb 2
• RES 1: $28.753 - High May 18
• PRICE: $27.760 @ 06:45 BST May 21
• SUP 1: $27.099 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $26.721 - Low Mar 13 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $26.501 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $25.718 - Low Apr 29

Silver remains bullish despite the recent pullback. Price action has this week probed $28.609, 76.4% of the sell-off between Feb 1 - Mar 31. Tuesday's high of $28.753 marks a short-term bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for strength towards $29.00 and above. Key short-term support has been defined at $26.721, Mar 13 low. Clearance of this level is required to threaten the trend.