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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 50-day EMA Marks Important Pivot for E-mini S&P

Price Signal Summary - 50-day EMA Marks Important Pivot for E-mini S&P

  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis traded higher yesterday as risk concerns ease. Attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4390.87 today. This is an important short-term pivot resistance and a clear break is required to signal scope for a stronger bounce. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are holding onto recent gains following the rebound from Wednesday's low. Despite this bounce, a bearish risk remains present. The contract recently traded below 3974.00, Sep 20 low. A clear break of this support would strengthen a bearish case and open 3882.00, Jul 19 low.
  • In FX, EURUSD outlook remains bearish and Wednesday's move lower reinforces this set-up. The break of 1.1563, Sep 30 and Oct 1 low, confirms a resumption of the current downtrend and signals scope for an extension towards 1.1493 next, a Fibonacci projection. GBPUSD is consolidating. Moving average studies are in a bear mode, reinforcing current conditions and this signals potential for weakness towards levels not seen since late December last year - 1.3354 marks the next objective, Dec 23, 2020 low. USDJPY is trading higher. The uptrend remains intact following the break on Sep 29 of 111.66, Jul 2 high. The recent corrective pullback found support at 110.82, Oct 4 low and attention is on the bull trigger at 112.08, Sep 30 high.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating. From a trend perspective, the outlook is bearish following recent weakness and the extension of the bear phase that has been in place since Sep 3. A break of $1721.7, Sep 29 low would confirm a resumption of weakness and open key support at $1690.6, Aug 9 low. WTI trend conditions remain bullish. The break higher confirms an extension of the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on the $80.00 psychological hurdle.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain bearish and resumed their downtrend Wednesday, breaking 169.48, Sep 28 low. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains in place and this defines a downtrend. Gilt futures traded lower Wednesday before finding support at the session low. The move lower confirms a resumption of the bear trend and an extension of the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Comfortable Near Recent Lows

  • RES 4: 1.1846 High Sep 14
  • RES 3: 1.1782 Bear channel top drawn from the Jun 1 high
  • RES 2: 1.1744/55 50-day EMA / High Sep 22
  • RES 1: 1.1640/1667 High Oct 4 / 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 1.1548 @ 06:05 BST Oct 08
  • SUP 1: 1.1529 Low Oct 6
  • SUP 2: 1.1493 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 bull phase
  • SUP 3: 1.1469 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
  • SUP 4: 1.1371 Low Jul 16

The EURUSD outlook remains bearish and Wednesday's move lower reinforces this set-up. The break of 1.1563, Sep 30 and Oct 1 low, confirms a resumption of the current downtrend and signals scope for an extension towards 1.1493 next, a Fibonacci projection. The extension also maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs with moving average conditions in a bear mode. Firm resistance is at 1.1640.

GBPUSD TECHS: Holding Below Recent Highs

  • RES 4: 1.3854 High Sep 15
  • RES 3: 1.3795 76.4% retracement of the Sep 14 -29 downleg
  • RES 2: 1.3725 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 1.3648 High Oct 5
  • PRICE: 1.3603 @ 06:10 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: 1.3532/3412 Low Oct 4 / Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 1.3354 Low Dec 23, 2020
  • SUP 3: 1.3308 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 4: 1.3277 61.8% retracement of the Sep '20 - Jan bull phase

GBPUSD is consolidating. Resistance has been defined at 1.3648, Oct 5 high and a bearish theme remains intact. This follows weakness on Sep 28 and 29 and the breach of a triangle base drawn from the Jul 20 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too, reinforcing current conditions and this signals potential for weakness towards levels not seen since late December last year - 1.3354 marks the next objective, Dec 23, 2020 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Extension

  • RES 4: 0.8703 1.236 proj of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 - Sep 16 rally
  • RES 3: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
  • RES 2: 0.8624/58 High Oct 1 / High Sep 29
  • RES 1: 0.8557 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.8490 @ 006:27 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: 0.8475/72 Low Oct 7 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 2: 0.8450 Low Aug 10
  • SUP 3: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020
  • SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020

EURGBP continues to weaken, extending the reversal from 0.8658, Sep 29 high. The move lower has resulted in a break of support at 0.8526, Sep 28 low and 0.8501, the Sep 16 low. This strengthens the bearish case and sets the scene for a deeper retracement towards 0.8450, Oct 8 low. On the upside, the cross needs to breach 0.8658, Sep 29 high to reinstate a bull theme. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8557, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

  • RES 4: 113.39 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 3: 112.40 High Apr 24, 2019
  • RES 2: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020
  • RES 1: 112.08 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 111.92 @ 06:30 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: 110.82/80 Low Oct 4 / High Aug 11
  • SUP 2: 110.34 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 109.76 Low Sep 23
  • SUP 4: 109.11 Low Aug 16 and Sep 15

USDJPY is trading higher. The uptrend remains intact following the break on Sep 29 of 111.66, Jul 2 high. The recent corrective pullback found support at 110.82, Oct 4 low and attention is on the bull trigger at 112.08, Sep 30 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 112.23/40, the Feb 20 and 24 highs. Note, the recent bearish engulfing candle on Sep 30 remains a S/T concern for bulls. Watch key support at 110.82.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

  • RES 4: 131.76 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Sep downleg
  • RES 3: 131.09 High Jul 13
  • RES 2: 130.75 High Sep 3 bull trigger
  • RES 1: 129.57/130.48 50-day EMA / High Sep 29
  • PRICE: 129.26 @ 06:37 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: 128.33/31 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 23
  • SUP 2: 127.94/93 Low Aug 19 / Low Sep 22 the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 127.88 50.0% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jan rally
  • SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

The reversal in EURJPY from 130.48, Sep 29 high continues to highlight a bearish short-term risk. Note, moving average studies are in a bear mode and this reinforces a broader bearish trend condition. Next support to watch undercuts at 127.94/93, Aug 19 and Sep 22 low where a break would resume the downtrend. For bulls, key resistance is unchanged at 130.75, Sep 3 high and represents the bull trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

  • RES 4: 0.7503 High Jul 13
  • RES 3: 0.7478 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 0.7410 High Sep 10
  • RES 1: 0.7325 50-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.7299 @ 06:45 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: 0.7226/7170 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 29
  • SUP 2: 0.7115/06 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Aug 20 bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend
  • SUP 4: 0.6991 Low Nov 2, 2020

AUDUSD is firmer however the outlook remains fragile following recent weakness. 0.7194 has been cleared, 76.4% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally and this sets the scene for a move towards 0.7106, the Aug 20 low and the bear trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend that started late February. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.7325, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Soft

  • RES 4: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
  • RES 3: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 1.2775/2896 High Sep 29 / High Sep 20
  • RES 1: 1.2656 High Oct 4
  • PRICE: 1.2553 @ 06:52 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: 1.2533 Intraday low
  • SUP 2: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support
  • SUP 4: 1.2367 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

USDCAD remains soft and has moved lower again today. The failure to reverse higher has seen the pair confirm, for now, a break of the 50-day EMA and this exposes support at 1.2494, Sep 3 low. A breach of this support would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards 1.2422, the Jul 30 low. For bulls, a break of 1.2775, Sep 29 high would represent a bullish development and this would refocus attention on 1.2949, Aug 20 high and the bull trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Downtrend Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 172.12 High Sep 14
  • RES 3: 171.96 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
  • RES 2: 170.81 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
  • RES 1: 170.55 High Oct 4 and key near-term resistance
  • PRICE: 169.51 @ 05:20 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: 169.01 1.764 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing
  • SUP 2: 168.75 Low May 21 (cont)
  • SUP 3: 168.29 Low May 19 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 167.98 2.382 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing

Bund futures remain bearish and resumed their downtrend Wednesday, breaking 169.48, Sep 28 low. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains in place and this defines a downtrend. Note moving average studies are in a bear mode too, reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 169.01 next, a Fibonacci projection and beyond. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 170.55.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Needle Still Points South

  • RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 7 / 9
  • RES 4: 135.540 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
  • RES 3: 135.380 High Sep 23
  • RES 2: 135.200 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level / High Oct 4
  • PRICE: 134.930 @ 05:23 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: 134.770 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 134.736 3.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
  • SUP 3: 134.660 Low Sep 7 and 8 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 134.548 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Sep rally

Bobl futures outlook is unchanged and remains bearish. The contract traded lower Wednesday and below 134.770, Sep 28 low. The recent extension maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend and signals scope for further weakness. The focus is on 134.736 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 135.200.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

  • RES 4: 112.340 High Aug 31
  • RES 3: 112.305 High Sep 3
  • RES 2: 112.290 High Sep 20 and key near-term resistance
  • RES 1: 112.255 High Sep 23 and Oct 5
  • PRICE: 112.235 @ 05:12 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: 112.190 Low Sep 30 and Oct 6
  • SUP 2: 112.174 2.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
  • SUP 3: 112.159 61.8% retracement of the May - Aug rally (cont)
  • SUP 4: 112.140 Low Jul 5 / 6 (cont)

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend. The recent breach of 112.215, Sep 9 low confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for an extension towards 112.174 next, a Fibonacci projection. MA conditions are in a bear mode, reinforcing current conditions. On the upside, key S/T resistance is unchanged at 112.290, Sep 20 high. Gains are considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Despite Wednesday's Bounce

  • RES 4: 126.84 Low Sep 17
  • RES 3: 126.32 20-day EMA
  • RES 2: 125.72 High Oct 1 and key near-term resistance
  • RES 1: 125.19 High Oct 7
  • PRICE: 124.74 @ Close Oct 7
  • SUP 1: 124.05/23.79 Low Oct 6 / 1.764 of Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 swing
  • SUP 2: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)
  • SUP 3: 122.75 2.236 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing
  • SUP 4: 122.15 Low Jan 18, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures traded lower Wednesday before finding support at the session low. The move lower confirms a resumption of the bear trend and an extension of the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies continue to point south and this also highlights a downtrend. The focus is on 123.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is seen at 125.72, Oct 1 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Trend Structure

  • RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
  • RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23
  • RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
  • RES 1: 152.87 High Oct 1 and key near-term resistance
  • PRICE: 152.12 @ Close Oct 7
  • SUP 1: 151.00 Low Oct 6 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 150.56 Low Jun 30 (cont)
  • SUP 3: 150.00/149.97 Round number support / Low Jun 25
  • SUP 4: 148.77 61.8% retracement of the May - Aug rally (cont)

BTP futures traded lower Wednesday, confirming a recent bear flag formation and a resumption of its downtrend. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that highlights a bearish theme remains intact and the recent move below 152.94, Sep 9 low, confirmed this price condition. The focus is on the 150.00 psychological round number. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 152.87, Oct 1 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Remains Below Its 50-Day EMA

  • RES 4: 4300.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 3: 4234.50 0.764 projection of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - 20 price swing
  • RES 2: 4223.00 High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 4095.20/4200.50 50-day EMA / High Sep 24
  • PRICE: 4076.50 @ 05:52 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: 3949.50 Low Oct 6 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 3902.50 Low Jul 20
  • SUP 3: 3882.00 Low Jul 19 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 3856.40 1.382 proj of the Sep 6 - Sep 20 - Sep 24 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are holding onto recent gains following the rebound from Wednesday's low. Despite this bounce, a bearish risk remains present. The contract recently traded below 3974.00, Sep 20 low. A clear break of this support would strengthen a bearish case and open 3882.00, Jul 19 low. Price needs to break 4095.20, the 50-day EMA to ease the current bearish threat. This would open 4200.50, Sep 24 high and 4223.00, Sep 6 key resistance.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Monitoring The 50-Day EMA

  • RES 4: 4591.25 1.00 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
  • RES 1: 4539.50 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 4519.75 High Sep 9
  • RES 1: 4421.50/4472.00 High Oct 7 / High Sep 27
  • PRICE: 4389.25 @ 07:05 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: 4260.00 Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 4243.50 Low Jul 20
  • SUP 3: 4214.50 Low Jul 19 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 4117.00 Low Jun 21

S&P E-minis traded higher yesterday as risk concerns ease. Attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4390.87 today. This is an important short-term pivot resistance and a clear break is required to signal scope for a stronger bounce. This would open 4472.00, the Sep 27 high. The contract did probe the 50-day EMA yesterday. Key support to watch and the bear trigger is unchanged at 4260.00, the Oct 1 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z1) Bull Trend Remains Intact

  • RES 4: $85.20 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
  • RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
  • RES 2: $84.10 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
  • RES 1: $83.47 - High Oct 6 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: $83.02 @ 07:03 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: $79.08/78.75 - Low Oct 7 / Low Oct 4
  • SUP 2: $76.51/75.42 - Low Sep 30 and key support / High Sep 15
  • SUP 3: $74.81 - Low Sep 23
  • SUP 4: $72.51 - Low Sep 21 and key near-term support

Brent futures traded higher Wednesday, extending this week's gains and the move above former resistance at $79.95, Sep 28 high. The break of $79.95 confirms a resumption of the uptrend and resumes the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that the contract has cleared the $80.00 handle. The focus is on $84.10 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at $79.08, yesterday's low.

WTI TECHS: (X1) Northbound

  • RES 4: $82.89 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
  • RES 3: $81.60 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
  • RES 2: $80.57 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
  • RES 1: $80.00 - Psychological round number
  • PRICE: $79.56 @ 07:08 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: $74.96 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
  • SUP 2: $73.14 - Low Sep 30 and key support
  • SUP 3: $71.61 - Low Sep 21
  • SUP 4: $69.39 - Low Sep 21 and key support

WTI trend conditions remain bullish. On Oct 4, the contract cleared $76.67 resistance, Sep 28 high and a bull trigger. The break higher confirms an extension of the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and attention is on the $80.00 psychological hurdle. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $74.96, Oct 7. A break of this level is required to signal a top.

GOLD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

  • RES 4: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
  • RES 3: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: $1808.7 - High Sep 14
  • RES 1: $1778.8/87.4 - 50-day EMA / High Sep 22 and key resistance
  • PRICE: $1759.4 @ 07:23 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
  • SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: $1678.00 Low Mar 31

Gold is consolidating. From a trend perspective, the outlook is bearish following recent weakness and the extension of the bear phase that has been in place since Sep 3. A break of $1721.7, Sep 29 low would confirm a resumption of weakness and open key support at $1690.6, Aug 9 low. Note though that the Sep 30 price pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. A rally would suggest scope for a stronger bounce, perhaps towards $1787.4.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Outlook

  • RES 4: $25.206 - High Jun 8
  • RES 3: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
  • RES 2: $23.596 - 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: $22.809/23.144 - 20-Day EMA / High Sep 22
  • PRICE: $22.482 @ 07:26 BST Oct 8
  • SUP 1: $21.423 - Low Sep 29
  • SUP 2: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally
  • SUP 3 :$20.000 - Psychological round number
  • SUP 4: $19.851 - Low Jul 21, 2020

The Silver outlook is unchanged and the trend condition remains bearish. The metal broke lower Sep 29 and cleared $22.039, Sep 20 low. This confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move lower paves the way for an extension towards $20.871, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key near-term resistance is unchanged at $23.144, Sep 22 high.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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