MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - All Eyes on USD/JPY Flag Formation

Price Signal Summary – All Eyes on USD/JPY Flag Formation

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Last week’s extension reinforces this theme and the break of 5257.25, Mar 8 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position reflecting positive market sentiment. A bullish trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high Tuesday. The climb once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend as the contract pulls away from the 5000.00 handle.
• A bearish theme in EURUSD remains intact following the reversal from last Thursday’s high and short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at 1.0835, the Mar 19 low, has been breached. A continuation lower would open 1.0796, the Feb 29 low. The latest pause in USDJPY appears to be a flag formation - a continuation pattern that reinforces bullish conditions. MA studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. Sights are on 151.91/95, the Nov 13 high and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. USDCAD remains above the Mar 21 low and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3614, the Mar 19 high and a recent congestion level. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that began on Dec 27.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the move higher on Mar 21, reinforces this condition. The initial rally delivered another all-time high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition. A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent gains resulted in a break of $79.87, the Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year.
• Bund futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs and a S/T bull cycle remains in play. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA - at 132.95. A clear break of this EMA would be a bullish development and a continuation higher would open the key resistance at 134.15. Despite Monday’s pullback, Gilt futures remain closer to their recent highs. A resumption of gains would expose key short-term resistance at 100.37, the Mar 13 low, where a break would strengthen any developing bullish theme.

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.1034 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 14 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 2: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0864/0943 20-day EMA / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 1.0826 @ 05:58 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 1.0802 Low Mar 22 / 25 low
• SUP 2: 1.0796 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 1.0762/0695 Low Feb 20 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0656 Low Nov 10

A bearish theme in EURUSD remains intact following the reversal from last Thursday’s high and short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at 1.0835, the Mar 19 low, has been breached. A continuation lower would open 1.0796, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. For bulls, a move above 1.0943, the Mar 21 high, is required to expose key resistance at 1.0981, the Mar 8 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27 2023
• RES 3: 1.2946 2.00 projection of the Feb 14 - 22 - Mar 1 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2698/2803 20-day EMA / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 1.2617 @ 06:09 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 1.2575 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 1.2536 Low Feb 14
• SUP 3: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2465, 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg

A sharp sell-off in GBPUSD late last week has strengthened a short-term bearish threat and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. 1.2600, the Mar 1 low, has been breached and this paves the way for a move towards 1.2536, Feb 14 low and 1.2519, Feb 5 low and a key support. MA studies continue to highlight an uptrend. A break of 1.2803, the Mar 21 high, is required to ease bearish pressure. First resistance is 1.2698, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 0.8678 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8607 23.6% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8602 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 0.8582 @ 06:18 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 0.8530/8504 Low Mar 21 / 08
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

EURGBP is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The cross last week breached resistance at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high. That move confirms a range breakout and a potential reversal, highlighting a short-term bullish condition. This opens 0.8607 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger lies at 0.8493, the Aug 23 2023 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing Major Resistance

• RES 4: 153.39 1.382 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 153.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 152.66 1.236 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 1: 151.97 Intraday high
• PRICE: 151.73 @ 06:40 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 150.01/149.04 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 147.44 Low Mar 14
• SUP 3: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 145.90 Low Feb 1

The latest pause in USDJPY appears to be a flag formation - a continuation pattern that reinforces bullish conditions. MA studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. Sights are on 151.91/95, the Nov 13 high and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. This resistance zone has been tested, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the long-term uptrend and open 152.66, a Fibonacci projection. Support is at 150.01, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 167.45 1.382 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 166.60 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 165.35 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 164.14 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 162.96 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 161.72 Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low
• SUP 3: 160.22 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 159.47 Low Feb 8

The uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and the recent move lower is considered corrective. The rally on Mar 20, through 164.30, the Nov 16 ‘23 high and a medium-term bull trigger confirms a resumption of the long-term uptrend. The break higher opens the 166.00 handle and 166.60, the top of a MA envelope. Initial firm support lies at 162.96, the 20-day EMA. Trendline support, drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, is at 161.72.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6565/6635 50-day EMA / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 0.6526 @ 08:09 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 0.6504 Low Mar 19
• SUP 2: 0.6478 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following the reversal from the Mar 21 high. The move down reinstates a bearish threat and exposes 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would open the key support and bear trigger at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position and continue to highlight a short-term downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6635, the Mar 21 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3614 High Mar 19 / 20 / 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3598 @ 08:04 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 1.3456/20 Low Mar 21 / 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

USDCAD remains above the Mar 21 low and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3614, the Mar 19 high and a recent congestion level. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that began on Dec 27. This would expose 1.3623, a Fibonacci retracement, and 1.3661, the Nov 27 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.3420, the Mar 8 low. A break would be bearish.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Testing resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 134.78 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 bear cycle
• RES 3: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 2: 134.15 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 133.28/69 High Mar 25 / 12
• PRICE: 132.91 @ 05:34 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 132.28/131.54 Low Mar 22 / 18
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.88 Bear channel base drawn from the Dec 27 high

Bund futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs and a S/T bull cycle remains in play. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA - at 132.95. A clear break of this EMA would be a bullish development and a continuation higher would open the key resistance at 134.15, the Mar 8 high. Key support has been defined at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started last December.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
• RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 1: 118.280 High Mar 25
• PRICE: 118.040 @ 05:42 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 117.600/340 Low Mar 21 / 18
• SUP 2: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)

Bobl futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The latest recovery appears to be a correction, however, a continuation higher would expose key resistance at 118.790, the Feb 15 / Mar 8 high. For bears, a resumption of the recent move lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 106.145 High Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 2: 106.010 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 / 12
• PRICE: 105.680 @ 05:57 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 105.515 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 105.490 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.430 High Feb 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)

A downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact, however, a S/T corrective cycle is in play and the contract remains above its recent low. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at 106.010, the Mar 8 high. A break of this level would be bullish. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 105.490, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend that started in December last year.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Trading Closer To Recent Highs

• RES 4: 101.00 Round number support
• RES 3: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 1: 100.05/100.37 High Mar 22 / 12 and a key S/T resistance
• PRICE: 99.47 @ Close Mar 27
• SUP 1: 98.96/05 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 97.67 76.4% retracement of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally
• SUP 3: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger

Despite Monday’s pullback, Gilt futures remain closer to their recent highs. A resumption of gains would expose key short-term resistance at 100.37, the Mar 13 low, where a break would strengthen any developing bullish theme. Key short-term support has been defined at 98.05, the Mar 15 low. A break would be bearish. For now, 98.05 and 100.37 remain the key short-term directional triggers.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Trading Above Support

• RES 4: 121.65 2.618 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.28 High Mar 14
• PRICE: 119.09 @ Close Mar 26
• SUP 1: 118.66/33 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 117.94 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

BTP futures continue to trade below their recent highs. A short-term bullish theme remains intact following the recovery that started on Feb 22, however, a clear break of support at the 20-day EMA - at 118.66 - would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 117.94, the 50-day EMA and a key short-term support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 120.65, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5074.70 1.236 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 5034.00 High Mar 26
• PRICE: 5025.00 @ 06:20 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 4926.10 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4872.00/4826.00 Low Mar 11 / 5
• SUP 3: 4771.00 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 4711.00 Low Feb 19

A bullish trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high Tuesday. The climb once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend as the contract pulls away from the 5000.00 handle. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5074.7, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 4926.10, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 5428.25 1.00 proj of the Oct 27 - Dec 28 - May 1 price swing
• RES 3: 5407.23 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 17 low
• RES 2: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5322.75 High Mar 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 5285.25 @ 06:52 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 5245.60 Bull channel base drawn from the Jan 17 low
• SUP 2: 5218.00 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 5157.00 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 5104.90 50-day EMA

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Last week’s extension reinforces this theme and the break of 5257.25, Mar 8 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position reflecting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5407.23, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Jan 17 low. Initial firm support is 5218.00, the 20-day EMA. A move lower is considered corrective.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M4) Move Lower Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $88.51 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $87.62 - High Oct 20 ‘23
• RES 1: $86.92 - High Mar 19
• PRICE: $84.87 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: $83.92 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $82.09 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $79.70 - Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: $76.18 - Low Feb 5 and key S/T support

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Price has recently cleared resistance at $83.38, the Mar 1 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position and this highlights a clear uptrend. Sights are on $87.62, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $83.92, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K4) Watching Support

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $84.87 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $83.87 - High Oct 20 ‘23
• RES 1: $83.12 - High Mar 19
• PRICE: $80.83 @ 07:11 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: $79.83 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $77.91/75.50 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 26
• SUP 3: $71.52 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.02 - Low Jan 3

A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent gains resulted in a break of $79.87, the Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year. Sights are on $83.87 next, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. A break of this level would open $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high and a key resistance. Support to watch is $79.83, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Theme

• RES 4: $2282.6 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2253.6 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2230.1 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2220.9 - High Mar 21
• PRICE: $2179.3 @ 07:16 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $2142.9 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2094.4 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the move higher on Mar 21, reinforces this condition. The initial rally delivered another all-time high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. This signals scope for a climb towards $2230.1, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend support has been defined at $2146.2, the Mar 18 low.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $26.753 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 ‘22
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 1: $25.774 - High Mar 21
• PRICE: $24.458 @ 08:14 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: $24.352 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.776 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

The latest pullback in Silver appears to be a correction. Recent gains reinforce a bullish theme. Resistance at $25.761, Dec 4 high, has been pierced and a clear break would strengthen bullish conditions and expose key resistance at $26.135, May 5 ‘23 high. A move through this level would highlight an important technical break. Initial firm support lies at $24.352, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would expose the 50-day EMA, at $23.776.