MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Confirms Resumption of Uptrend

Price Signal Summary – AUD Confirms Resumption of Uptrend

• The S&P E-Minis outlook remains bullish and the most recent pullback is considered corrective. Bullish conditions have been reinforced by the recent break above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, resistance at 4578.50, Feb 9 high has been cleared. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in an uptrend and the most recent pullback is considered corrective. The contract recently traded above the 50-day EMA. This average represents an important resistance - at 3861.50 today - and a clear break would confirm a resumption of this bull cycle.
• EURUSD traded lower Monday, starting the week on a softer note. The recent failure at 1.1185, Mar 31 high and more importantly, the inability to remain above the 50-day EMA (breached last week), highlights a developing bearish threat. USDJPY is trading above last week’s low of 121.28 on Mar 31. A corrective cycle continues to dominate following last week’s pullback from 125.09, Mar 28 high. 121.28 represents a key short-term support. AUDUSD is trading higher today and has confirmed a resumption of its uptrend. The break higher confirms a bull flag breakout and price has also cleared resistance at 0.7556, the Oct 28 2021 high. The Aussie has also traded through the Jul 6 2021 high of 0.7599 and probed 0.7610, 61.8% of the Feb ‘21 - Jan ‘22 downleg.
• The recent move lower in WTI futures from $116.64, Mar 24 high, highlights a short-term bearish threat. The contract has also recently traded below the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a move towards the 50-day EMA at $97.61. Gold is unchanged and remains range bound above $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. The outlook is bearish following the recent pullback from $2070.4, Mar 8 high. This has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind.
• Bunds traded higher Monday. Short-term gains are still considered corrective and recent gains are allowing an oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend remains down. Gilt futures traded higher Monday and broke out of the recent range. The contract has also moved above the 20-day EMA and this exposes key resistance at 122.72, the Mar 18 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Support At 1.0945 Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.1274 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 1.1253 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1222 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1185/1203 High Mar 31 / 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• PRICE: 1.0964 @ 06:00 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 1.0945 Low Mar 28 and a key support
• SUP 2: 1.0898/06 Low Mar 14 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020

EURUSD traded lower Monday, starting the week on a softer note. The recent failure at 1.1185, Mar 31 high and more importantly, the inability to remain above the 50-day EMA (breached last week), highlights a developing bearish threat that leaves support at 1.0945 exposed, Mar 28 low. A break of this support would signal scope for a deeper sell-off and open 1.0898, the Mar 14 low. Clearance of 1.1185 is required to reinstate a bull theme.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.3439 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 1.3398 61.8% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 15 downleg
• RES 2: 1.3285/98 50-day EMA / High Mar 23
• RES 1: 1.3225 High Mar 25 and 23
• PRICE: 1.3120 @ 06:07 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 1.3051/3000 Low Mar 29 / Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD is unchanged. A bearish threat remains present following the recent reversal from 1.3298, Mar 23 high. Cable has also recently failed to remain above a number of short-term resistance points and the pullback means price continues to trade below a key resistance at 1.3285, the 50-day EMA. The focus is on 1.3000, Mar 15 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of the 50-day EMA is required to highlight a short-term reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Reversal

• RES 4: 0.8624 High Oct 1 2021
• RES 3: 0.8600 High Dec 8 2022
• RES 2: 0.8512/56 High Mar 31 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8435 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 0.8355 @ 06:18 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 0.8347 76.4% retracement of the Mar 23 - 31 climb
• SUP 2: 0.8322 Low Mar 28
• SUP 3: 0.8296 Low Mar 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8278 Low Mar 8

EURGBP started this week on a softer note. The move lower Monday marks an extension of the pullback from last week’s 0.8512 high on Mar 31. This reverses a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation of current weakness. The cross has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, opening 0.8296, the Mar 23 low. Initial resistance is seen at yesterday’s 0.8435 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 126.26 3.382 proj of the Dec 3 ‘21 - Jan 4 -24 price swing
• RES 3: 125.86 High Jun 5 2015 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 125.28 High Aug 12 2015
• RES 1: 123.20/125.09 High Mar 30 / High Mar 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 122.52 @ 06:26 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 121.28 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 120.95 Low Mar 24
• SUP 3: 120.36/00 20-day EMA / Round number support
• SUP 4: 119.44 Low Mar 22

USDJPY is trading above last week’s low of 121.28 on Mar 31. A corrective cycle continues to dominate following last week’s pullback from 125.09, Mar 28 high. 121.28 represents a key short-term support. A break of this level would allow for an extension lower and open 120.95, Mar 24 low ahead of the 120.00 handle. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 123.20, the Mar 30 high with the bull trigger unchanged at 125.09.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 139.00 High Aug 21 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 138.62 High Aug 25 2015
• RES 2: 137.50/53 High Feb 2 ‘18 and major resistance / High Mar 28
• RES 1: 135.88 High Apr 1
• PRICE: 134.35 @ 06:37 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 133.94 Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: 132.97 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 131.34 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 130.72 Low Mar 17

The recent move lower in EURJPY is likely a correction that is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 133.94, Mar 28 low. A break would allow for an extension towards the 20-day EMA at 132.97. The primary trend remains up. The cross traded to a fresh trend high on Mar 28 and breached a key resistance at 134.13, Jun 1 2021 high, on Mar 24. This strengthened bullish conditions. The bull trigger is 137.50/53.

AUDUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 0.7716 High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: 0.7653 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.7645 High Jun 17 2021
• RES 1: 0.7617/27 High Jun 25 / 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• PRICE: 0.7613 @ 06:50 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 0.7536 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.7457 Low Mar 29 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.7426/7376 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: 0.7329 50-day EMA

AUDUSD is trading higher today and has confirmed a resumption of its uptrend. The break higher confirms a bull flag breakout and price has also cleared resistance at 0.7556, the Oct 28 2021 high. The Aussie has also traded through the Jul 6 2021 high of 0.7599 and probed 0.7610, 61.8% of the Feb ‘21 - Jan ‘22 downleg. The next objective is 0.7645, the Jun 17 2021 high. Key support has been defined at 0.7457, the Mar 29 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.2778 High Mar 16
• RES 3: 1.2699 High Mar 17
• RES 2: 1.2642 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2583/93 20-day EMA / High Mar 28
• PRICE: 1.2472 @ 07:05 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 1.2430 Low Mar 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2389 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021
• SUP 4: 1.2328 Low Oct 29 2021

USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The pair has recently traded below 1.2451 - the Jan 19 low. This has reinforced bearish conditions and extends the move lower triggered by the recent break of 1.2552, 76.4% of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally. The break lower opens 1.2387 initially ahead of 1.2328. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2583, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would ease bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 162.73 High Mar 14
• RES 3: 161.81 High Mar 16
• RES 2: 160.15/31 20-day EMA / High Mar 23
• RES 1: 159.05 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 159.21 @ 05:00 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 157.71 Low Apr 1
• SUP 2: 156.05/00 Low Mar 29 / Round number support
• SUP 3: 155.70 Low Dec 7 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 155.03 Low Dec 4 2015 (cont)

Bunds traded higher Monday. Short-term gains are still considered corrective and recent gains are allowing an oversold condition to unwind. The primary trend remains down. The recent continuation lower has confirmed an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019. A resumption of weakness would open 156.00. Firm resistance is at 160.31, the Mar 23 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 131.025 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 130.160 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 129.846 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.350 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 129.020 @ 05:10 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 127.770/750 Low Mar 29 / Low Jun 5 2015 (cont)
• SUP 2: 127.540 Low Jun 4 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 127.520 Low Sep 3 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 127.280 Low Sep 18 2014 (cont)

Bobl futures remain above recent lows and Monday marked an extension of the current corrective phase. The primary trend remains down. Recent weakness once again confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend to maintain the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on a move towards 127.750 next, the Jun 5 2015 low (cont). The 20-day EMA at 129.846 is seen as a firm resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) primary Trend Remains Down

• RES 4: 111.355 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 111.050 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 110.855 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 110.755 @ 05:18 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 110.465 Low Mar 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 110.410 Low May 8 2014 (cont)
• SUP 3: 110.400 Round number support
• SUP 4: 110.360 Low Apr 29 2014 (cont)

Schatz futures remain vulnerable and the recent move higher is considered corrective. Last week’s fresh cycle lows strengthened bearish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend plus, it marked an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 111.00 has recently been cleared and this paves the way for a move towards 110.410 next. Firm resistance is seen at 111.050, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Trades Above The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 3: 123.52 High Mar 9
• RES 2: 122.72 High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 122.35 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 121.88 @ Close Apr 4
• SUP 1: 120.55 Low Apr 1
• SUP 2: 119.86 Low Mar 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb
• SUP 4: 119.36 Low Oct 10 2018 (cont)

Gilt futures traded higher Monday and broke out of the recent range. The contract has also moved above the 20-day EMA and this exposes key resistance at 122.72, the Mar 18 high. The broader trend direction is bearish though and gains are still considered corrective. The bear trigger is at 119.86, the Mar 28 low. For bulls, clearance of 122.72 would suggest scope for a stronger bullish short-term cycle.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 143.85 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 142.51 Low Mar 1
• RES 2: 140.71 High Mar 11
• RES 1: 139.07 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 137.98 @ Close Apr 4
• SUP 1: 135.69 Low Mar 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 135.43 Low May 7 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 134.61 Low Apr 24 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 134.00 Round number support

BTP futures remain above recent lows and recent short-term gains are still considered corrective. The move lower last week marked an extension of the breach of support at 138.60, Feb 16 low, and confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. It also highlights a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 135.43, May 7 2020 low (cont). Firm resistance is seen at 139.07.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 4189.00 Hi Feb 1
• RES 3: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 2: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 3944.00/3965.50 High Mar 29 / High Feb 23
• PRICE: 3872.00 @ 05:38 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 3735.00/3555.50 Low Mar 18 / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 3455.00 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 3441.50 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in an uptrend and the most recent pullback is considered corrective. The contract recently traded above the 50-day EMA. This average represents an important resistance - at 3861.50 today - and a clear break would confirm a resumption of this bull cycle that started Mar 7. The move higher last week also confirmed a bull flag breakout on the daily chart. The focus is on 3965.50, Feb 23 high. Initial support is at 3735.00.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Bullish While Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4800.00 High Apr 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 2: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 1: 4633.44 76.4% retracement of the Jan 4 - Feb 24 downleg
• PRICE: 4575.75 @ 06:59 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 4449.97 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4320.25 Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: 4129.50/4094.25 Low Mar 15 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)

The S&P E-Minis outlook remains bullish and the most recent pullback is considered corrective. Bullish conditions have been reinforced by the recent break above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Furthermore, resistance at 4578.50, Feb 9 high has been cleared. This opens, 4663.50, the Jan 18 high. Initial firm support is at 4449.97, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be seen as a bearish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M2) 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $134.91 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $128.04 - High Mar 8
• RES 2: $125.40 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 1: $112.28/119.74 - High Mar 30 / High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $109.25 @ 07:03 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: $102.19/100.32 - Low Mar 29 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $94.61 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: $90.58 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $84.74 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures remain above $102.19, the Mar 29 low, however the contract remains vulnerable. The recent move lower from $119.74, Mar 24 high, highlights a short-term bearish threat. The contract has traded below the 20-day EMA and this suggests scope for a deeper short-term retracement that has exposed the 50-day EMA, at $100.32. The 50-day average marks a key pivot support. $119.74 remains the key short-term resistance.

WTI TECHS: (K2) Off Recent Lows But Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $126.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $122.73 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $116.64/118.34 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 1: $108.75/112.93 -High Mar 30 / High Mar 28
• PRICE: $105.13 @ 07:18 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: $97.78/61 - Low Apr 1 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $92.20 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $88.49 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $85.81 - Low Feb 18

The recent move lower in WTI futures from $116.64, Mar 24 high, highlights a short-term bearish threat. The contract has also recently traded below the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a move towards the 50-day EMA at $97.61 This average represents an important pivot level and a break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, clearance of $116.64 would reinstate recent bullish conditions. Initial resistance is at $108.75.

GOLD TECHS: Still In A Range

• RES 4: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 2: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• RES 1: $1966.1 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $1931.3 @ 07:21 BST Apr 4
• SUP 1: $1890.2 - Low Mar 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11

Gold is unchanged and remains range bound above $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. The outlook is bearish following the recent pullback from $2070.4, Mar 8 high. This has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Key support is seen at the 50-day EMA, at $1906.6 and lies just ahead of the Mar 15 low of $1895.3. Both were probed last week, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback. Initial resistance is $1966.1.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $25.847 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $24.698 @ 08:11 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: $24.529 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• SUP 3: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $23.082 - Low Feb 15

Silver resistance has been defined at $25.847, Mar 24 high. A short-term bearish theme remains intact and potential is seen for a deeper retracement. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at $24.529 that has been probed. This EMA marks an important support and a clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback. For bulls, a move above $26.00 would refocus attention on $26.943, the Mar 8 high.