MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Starts Week on Bullish Note

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – AUD Starts Week on Bullish Note

• S&P E-Minis traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its gains. The rally last week resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. This highlights a stronger reversal and signals the end of the corrective cycle between Jul 16 - Aug 5. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply higher last week, extending the recovery that started Aug 5. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4866.49. A clear break of this average would undermine the recent bearish theme.
• GBPUSD is starting the week on a firmer note, trading higher and extending the current bull cycle. The move higher that started Aug 8, undermines the recent bearish theme and price has traded above the 20-day EMA. USDJPY has pulled back from last week’s high and price has remained below resistance at the 20-day EMA. The trend direction remains down and recent gains appear to have been a correction.AUDUSD has started the week on a bullish note as the pair extends the reversal that started Aug 5. The extension higher undermines the recent bearish theme. Price has pierced 0.6693, 76.4% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 bear leg. A clear break of this price point would strengthen a bullish theme
• Gold is holding on to its latest gains. Friday’s rally delivered a fresh all-time high and the breach of resistance at $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up. WTI futures rallied sharply higher on Aug 12 . The move undermines a recent bearish theme and price traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards $80.77, a Fibonacci retracement.
• A bullish trend condition in Bund futures remains intact and recent gains reinforces this theme. 133.21, Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position too. A resumption of the trend would open 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. Note that the move lower has allowed an overbought trend reading to unwind. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 101.78. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North 

• RES 4: 1.1229 High Jul 20 2023
• RES 3: 1.1150 High Jul 27 2023
• RES 2: 1.1139 High Dec 29 2023 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1047/1084  High Aug 14 / High Dec 29 2023
• PRICE: 1.1040 @ 05:43 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 1.0921 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0867 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3 

The trend condition in EURUSD remains bullish. The pair traded to a fresh trend high last week, extending the current bull phase. Resistance at 1.1008, the Aug 5 high, has been cleared and this confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 1.1084, the Dec 29 ‘23 high. Note moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend condition. Initial support to watch lies at 1.0921, the 20-day EMA.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Recovery Extends      

• RES 4: 1.3114 - 2.00 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing    
• RES 3: 1.3044 High Jul 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3013 High Jul 18 
• RES 1: 1.2960 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2954 @ 05:56 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 1.2824 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.2794/2665 50-day EMA / 8 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2584 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle

GBPUSD is starting the week on a firmer note, trading higher and extending the current bull cycle. The move higher that started Aug 8, undermines the recent bearish theme and price has traded above the 20-day EMA. A continuation higher would highlight a stronger reversal. 1.2955, 76.4% of the Jul 17 - Aug 8 bear leg, has been pierced. A clear break would open 1.3044, the Jul 17 and bull trigger. Initial firm support lies at 1.2824, the 20-day EMA.               

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.8715 High Dec 28    
• RES 3: 0.8677 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 ‘23 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8593/8625 High Aug 14 / 8 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8524 @ 06:33 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 0.8511 Low Aug 16 
• SUP 2: 0.8495 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8454 Low Aug 2  
• SUP 4: 0.8418 Low Aug 1

EURGBP is trading just above its recent lows and a corrective cycle remains in play. The retracement is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.8516, has been pierced. A firmer support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8495. For bulls, recent impulsive gains highlight potential for 0.8645, the Apr 23 high and a key resistance. Note that moving average studies are in bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend.     

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact      

• RES 4: 155.22 High Jul 30   
• RES 3: 153.03 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 150.89 High Aug 1     
• RES 1: 149.77 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 145.85 @ 06:22 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 144.29 Low Aug 7   
• SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28   

USDJPY has pulled back from last week’s high and price has remained below resistance at the 20-day EMA. The trend direction remains down and recent gains appear to have been a correction. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the  bear trend. Resistance to watch is 149.77, the 20-day EMA.    

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish  

• RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14  
• RES 3: 166.26 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 164.12 200 DMA      
• RES 1: 163.89 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 161.06 @ 06:43 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 159.79 Low Aug 12   
• SUP 2: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support

The outlook in EURJPY is overall bearish, and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Note that the latest move higher has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The cross pierced resistance at 163.54, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would expose the 50-day EMA, at 166.26. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and open 154.42, the Aug 5 low.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends   

• RES 4: 0.6799 High Jul 11 and key resistance      
• RES 3: 0.6764 High Jul 16                  
• RES 2: 0.6744 High Jul 18
• RES 1: 0.6695 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 0.6690 @ 08:55 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 0.6616 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6565 Low Aug 12 
• SUP 3: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23

AUDUSD hast started the week on a bullish ast the pair extends the reversal that started Aug 5. The extension higher undermines the recent bearish theme. Price has pierced 0.6693, 76.4% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 bear leg. A clear break of this price point would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards 0.6799, the Jul 11 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6565, the Aug 12 low.      

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends   

• RES 4: 1.4048 High May 22 2020 
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022
• RES 2: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5 and bull trigger  
• RES 1: 1.3748 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3668 @ 08:03 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 1.3657 Low Jul 17 
• SUP 2: 1.3589 Low Jun 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and the latest pullback still appears to be a correction. However, the pair has breached the 50-day EMA, and is trading lower today. This bearish extension does undermine a bull theme and highlights scope for a deeper retracement towards 1.3657, Jul 17 low. A break of this level would open 1.3589, Jul 11 low. Initial resistance is 1.3748, 20-day EMA. Key resistance has been defined at 1.3946, Aug 5 high. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Trading Above Support  

• RES 4: 137.26 3.50 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing         
• RES 3: 136.99 3.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
• RES 2: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 135.17/136.28 High Aug 14 / 5 and the bull trigger                      
• PRICE: 134.30 @ 05:22 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 133.93 20-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 133.016 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 131.62 Low Jul 22 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 131.39 Low Jul 15  

A bullish  trend condition in Bund futures remains intact and recent gains reinforces this theme. 133.21, Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position too. A resumption of the trend would open 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. The contract remains below the Aug 5 high, a pullback is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 133.93, the 20-day EMA.    

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Watching Support                                          

• RES 4: 120.000 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 119.730 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing  
• RES 2: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing      
• RES 1: 118.300/119.090 High Aug 14 / 5 and the bull trigger                
• PRICE: 117.770@ 05:34 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 117.632 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 117.120/116.320 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22   
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11 
• SUP 4: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support

The uptrend in Bobl futures remains intact and the pullback from the Aug 5 high still appears to be a correction. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a breach of a key resistance at 117.160, Jun 14 high. This break, together with the subsequent impulsive rally, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on 119.234, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 117.632, the 20-day EMA.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Testing Support At The 20-Day EMA  

• RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 1: 106.500/106.810 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 106.205 @ 05:34 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 106.153 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 105.950/630 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22  
• SUP 3: 105.495 Low Jul 11 
• SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support 

An uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest pullback still appears to be a correction. Note that for now, the contract remains above an initial firm support at 106.153, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would be seen as an early bearish threat. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 105.950. For bulls, a resumption of gains would signal the end of the corrective cycle and open 106.916, a Fibonacci projection.                       

GILT TECHS: (U4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish                                          

• RES 4: 102.15 2.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 102.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 101.78 2.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 100.80/101.46 High Aug 14 / High Aug 5 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 99.85 @ Close Aug 16
• SUP 1: 99.48 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 98.78/97.46 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 96.96 Low Jul 3 
• SUP 4: 96.57 Low Jul 1

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. Note that the move lower has allowed an overbought trend reading to unwind. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 101.78, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial key support lies at 99.48, the 20-day EMA. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend.      

BTP TECHS: (U4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat 

• RES 4: 121.25 2.382 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 120.85 2.236 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 2: 120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 1: 120.00 Psychological round number 
• PRICE: 119.13 @ Close Aug 16
• SUP 1: 118.75/117.99 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support 

The medium-term trend in BTP futures remains bullish and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforces this theme. The contract has breached resistance at 119.57, Aug 2 high, confirming a resumption of the bull cycle. The break opens the 120.00 handle next. Price remains above initial firm support at 118.75, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 117.99. A clear breach of both EMAs would instead highlight a bearish threat and a potential reversal.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Pierces Resistance At The 50-Day EMA         

• RES 4: 5132.00 High Jun 6    
• RES 3: 5087.00 High Jul 12      
• RES 2: 4951.00 High Jul 31
• RES 1: 4873.00 50-day EMA   
• PRICE: 4863.00 @ 06:00 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 4665.00/4494.00 Low Aug 9 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 4424.64 61.8% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - May 16 bull cycle (cont) 
• SUP 4: 4502.00 Low Jan 24 (cont)

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply higher last week, extending the recovery that started Aug 5. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4866.49. A clear break of this average would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 4951.00, the Jul 31 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 4494.00, the Aug 5 low.             

E-MINI S&P: (U4) Holding On To Its Recent Gains       

• RES 4: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance   
• RES 3: 5664.00 High Jul 18 
• RES 2: 5629.75 High Jul 23 
• RES 1: 5600.75 High Aug 1        
• PRICE: 5573.00 @ 07:18 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 5363.80 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 5319.50 Low Aug 9 
• SUP 3: 5182.00 Low Aug 8 
• SUP 4: 5120.00 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger

S&P E-Minis traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its gains. The rally last week resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. This highlights a stronger reversal and signals the end of the corrective cycle between Jul 16 - Aug 5. Sights are on 5600.75, Aug 1 high. A break would set the scene for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. Initial support lies at 5363.8, the 50-day EMA.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V4) Outlook Remains Bullish  

• RES 4: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $87.05 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $84.22 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 low 
• RES 1: $82.40 - High Aug 12    
• PRICE: $79.44 @ 06:50 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: $78.62 - Low Aug 16  
• SUP 2: $75.05/74.96 - Low Aug 5 and a key support / Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.60 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing   

Brent futures continue to trade below their recent highs. For now, the latest move lower appears to be a correction. A strong rally on Aug 12 highlights a possible bullish short-term reversal. A resumption of gains would strengthen a bullish theme and open $84.22, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower would instead refocus attention on the key short-term support at $75.05, the Aug 5 low.   

WTI TECHS: (U4) Bullish Despite The Latest Pullback   

• RES 4: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $83.58 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $82.27 - High Jul 18  
• RES 1: $80.77 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 low    
• PRICE: $76.24 @ 07:09 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: $74.60/71.67 - Low Aug 8 / 5 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: $70.73 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $69.16 - Low Dec 13 2023
• SUP 4: $67.37 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing 

WTI futures rallied sharply higher on Aug 12 . The move undermines a recent bearish theme and price traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards $80.77, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open $83.58, the Jul 5 high. On the downside, the contract has pulled back from its recent high. A stronger sell-off would refocus attention on key support at $71.67, Aug 5 low.   

GOLD TECHS: Fresh All-Time High   

• RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance    
• RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2509.9 - Intraday high                  
• PRICE: $2503.2 @ 07:16 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: $2432.6/ - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2396.2/2353.2 50-day EMA / Low Jul 25 
• SUP 3: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7 
• SUP 4: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support

Gold is holding on to its latest gains. Friday’s rally delivered a fresh all-time high and the breach of resistance at $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards $2528.4, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $2432.6, the 20-day EMA.        

SILVER TECHS: Monitoring Resistance   

• RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg        
• RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $29.728 - 61.8% of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg                
• PRICE: $29.119 @ 08:10 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: $26.451- Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27 
• SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28 

A bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The metal on Aug 8, traded to a fresh near-term cycle low and this has exposed the next key support at $26.018, the May 2 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at  $28.774, has been pierced. A clear of it would instead highlight a possible reversal.