MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Trades Through Support

Price Signal Summary – AUD Trades Through Support

• The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce this set-up. The contract has traded above 5368.25, the May 23 high and bull trigger. The move confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the 5400.00 handle next. Recent weakness in Eurostoxx 50 futures appears to have been a correction. The recovery from 4947.00, the Jun 4 low, signals the end of the corrective cycle and attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5110.00, the May 16 high.
• The GBPUSD trend condition remains bullish and Friday’s pullback appears to be a correction - for now. The recent print above 1.2801, the May 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. The trend outlook in USDJPY is bullish and the recovery from last Wednesday's low signals the end of the recent corrective pullback. The move higher means that a key support zone, between 154.83, the 50-day EMA, and 154.29, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low, remains in place. A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD Friday undermines the recent bullish theme. The move lower resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50 -day EMAs. Furthermore, support at 0.6591, the May 30 low has also been pierced.
• A sharp sell-off in Gold Friday reinforces a short-term bearish theme. The yellow metal has cleared support around the 50-day EMA, at 2313.6. The break confirms a resumption of the reversal that started May 20 and signals scope for a deeper correction near-term. Despite the latest recovery in WTI futures, a bearish theme remains in play. Price has recently cleared $73.24, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg. This reinforces the current bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation.
• Recent gains in Bund futures from 129.37, the May 31 low, appears to have been a correction. The contract breached the 20-day EMA and the next resistance to watch is 131.67, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. Gilt futures traded lower Friday and the contract remains below last week’s high of 97.86 (Jun 4). For now, the recent climb is considered corrective. The next important resistance to watch is 97.86 and 98.04, a Fibonacci retracement point.

EURUSD TECHS: Clears Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 1.0964 High Mar 13
• RES 3: 1.0933 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.0836/1.0916 20-day EMA / High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0812 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0756 @ 06:01 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 1.0748 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0724 Low May 9
• SUP 3: 1.0675 76.4% retracement of the Apr 16 - Jun 4
• SUP 4: 1.0650 Low May 1

EURUSD traded sharply lower Friday and the pair is weak again today. Price has breached the 20-day EMA and this has been followed by a break of support at 1.0788, the May 30 low. The move lower undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper pullback. Sights are on 1.0724, the May 9 low and 1.0675 further out, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial resistance is seen at 1.0812, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2859 1.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2817 High June 4 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2714 @ 06:24 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 1.2706/1.2653 Intraday low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15
• SUP 3: 1.2510 Low May 14
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support

The GBPUSD trend condition remains bullish and Friday’s pullback appears to be a correction - for now. The recent print above 1.2801, the May 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on 1.2859, a Fibonacci projection. Support at 1.2711, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced, a clear break would open 1.2653, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Impulsive Break Lower

• RES 4: 0.8621 High May 9 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8593 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8541 High May 31
• RES 1: 0.8525 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8555 @ 06:48 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 2: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing

EURGBP has started the week on a bearish note and has cleared support at 0.8484, the May 29 low and bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 0.8408 next, the Aug 24 ‘23 low. 0.8453, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 ‘22 - Sep 26 ‘22 bull cycle has been tested, a break would reinforce the bearish theme. Resistance is at 0.8525, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Support Zone Remains Intact

• RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 158.12 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
• RES 2: 157.99 High May 1
• RES 1: 157.71 High May 29 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 157.04 @ 06:53 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 154.83/55 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 154.29 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
• SUP 3: 151.86 Low May 3 and a pivot level
• SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5

The trend outlook in USDJPY is bullish and the recovery from last Wednesday's low signals the end of the recent corrective pullback. The move higher means that a key support zone, between 154.83, the 50-day EMA, and 154.29, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low, remains in place. A clear break of this zone would be bearish and highlight a reversal. For bulls, a move above 157.71, the May 29 high, would resume a short-term uptrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 173.29 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 172.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 170.89 High Jun 3
• PRICE: 168.84 @ 07:01 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 168.09 Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: 167.49 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
• SUP 3: 165.64 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3 and a pivot support

The recent move down in EURJPY appears to be a correction. The medium-term trend structure is bullish and sights are on 171.56, the Apr 29 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Support to watch is at a key trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, at 167.49. A clear breach of this line would highlight a potential reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 1: 0.6631/6714 20-day EMA / High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6593 @ 05:53 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 0.6576 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 0.6539 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.6497 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg

A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD Friday undermines the recent bullish theme. The move lower resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50 -day EMAs. Furthermore, support at 0.6591, the May 30 low has also been pierced. A continuation lower would highlight a possible reversal and signal scope for a deeper pullback, towards 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open the bull trigger at 0.6714, the Jun 16 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3785 High Apr 30
• PRICE: 1.3765 @ 07:58 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 1.3654/1.3590 50-day EMA / Low May 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD traded higher Friday and breached resistance at 1.3748, 61.8% of the Apr 16 - Mar 16 bear leg. The trend outlook remains bullish and Friday’s gains are a positive development. A continuation higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.3590, May 16 low. A clear break of this level would threaten a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Bear Trend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 132.83 High May 16 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 132.18 High May 17
• RES 2: 131.58/67 High Jun 5 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 130.96 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.24 @ 05:38 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 130.05 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 129.83 Low Jun 1
• SUP 3: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 129.00 round number support

Recent gains in Bund futures from 129.37, the May 31 low, appears to have been a correction. The contract breached the 20-day EMA and the next resistance to watch is 131.67, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a continuation lower would expose 129.37, the May 31 low, and a break of this level would resume the downtrend and open the 129.00 handle.

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 116.750 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 116.420 High May 17
• RES 3: 116.351 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 31 bear leg
• RES 1: 115.871/116.160 20-day EMA / High Jun 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: 115.390 @ 05:55 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 115.270 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 115.060 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 115.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 114.869 0.764 proj of the May 16 - 31 - Jun 4 price swing

A primary downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The contract did trade through the 20-day EMA but has since reversed lower. Resistance to watch is 116.160, the Jun 4 high and a break of this level would highlight a short-term reversal. For bears, attention is on the key short-term support at 115.060, the May 31 low. A breach of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Bearish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 105.625 High May 17
• RES 3: 105.572 76.4% retracement of the May 15 - 24 bear leg
• RES 2: 105.484 61.8% retracement of the May 15 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 105.460 High Jun 4 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 105.215 @ 06:15 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 105.175 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 105.110 Low May 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 104.855 1.00 projection of the May 15 - 24 - Jun 4 price swing

The trend condition in Schatz futures remains bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting bearish market sentiment. Resistance to watch is 105.460, the Jun 4 and 5 high. For bears, a continuation lower would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 105.110, the May 24 low. A break would resume the downtrend.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Has Pulled Back From Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 98.89 High May 16 a key resistance
• RES 3: 98.25 High May 21
• RES 2: 98.04 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle
• RES 1: 97.86 High Jun 4
• PRICE: 96.66 @ 08:08 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 96.61 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 96.26 Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 95.33 Low May 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 95.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded lower Friday and the contract remains below last week’s high of 97.86 (Jun 4). For now, the recent climb is considered corrective. The next important resistance to watch is 97.86 and 98.04, a Fibonacci retracement point. A clear break of the latter would strengthen a bull phase and signal scope for a climb towards 98.89, the May 16 high. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 95.33, May 29 low.

BTP TECHS: (U4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.89 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - 29 bear leg
• RES 1: 116.94/117.62 20-day EMA / High Jun 5 and key resistance
• PRICE: 115.78 @ 08:01 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 115.59 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 115.54 Low Apr 25 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 114.88 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.58 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 27 price swing

BTP futures have pulled back from their recent highs. The latest reversal highlights the end of the corrective phase between May 29 - Jun 5. A continuation down has exposed key support at 115.54, the Apr 25 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 117.62, the Jun 5 high. A break would highlight a stronger short-term bull cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Bull Trend Still Intact

• RES 4: 5162.00 High Nov 2000
• RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5110.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 5088.00 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 5035.00 @ 06:35 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 4947.00 Low Jun 4 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 4936.00 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4894.90 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4862.00 Low Apr 25

Recent weakness in Eurostoxx 50 futures appears to have been a correction. The recovery from 4947.00, the Jun 4 low, signals the end of the corrective cycle and attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 5110.00, the May 16 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, a break of 4947.00 would instead expose 4894.90, a Fibonacci retracement.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 5462.77 2.236 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5417.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5385.50 High Jun 7
• PRICE: 5352.50 @ 07:23 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: 5297.02/5205.50 20-day EMA / Low May 31 and key support
• SUP 2: 5155.75 Low May 6
• SUP 3: 5099.25 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 5036.25 Low May 2

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce this set-up. The contract has traded above 5368.25, the May 23 high and bull trigger. The move confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the 5400.00 handle next. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 5205.50, the May 31 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q4) Gains Appear To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $91.11 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.22 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $84.72/87.77 - High May 29 / High Apr 26
• RES 1: $81.29 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $79.80 @ 07:01 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: $76.76 - Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: $75.63 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.47 - Low Dec 13 and a key support
• SUP 4: $71.20 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing

Brent futures have recovered from their recent lows. For now, gains are considered corrective and a bearish theme remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in the breach of a number of important short-term supports. Price has traded through $80.44, the May 24 low, and $77.42, 76.4% of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle. The break lower signals potential for an extension to $75.63, the Feb 5 low. Initial firm resistance is $84.72, the May 29 high.

WTI TECHS: (N4) Outlook Remains Bearish Despite Recent Gains

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.93 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $83.63/86.16 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $77.10/80.62 - 20-day EMA / High May 1
• PRICE: $75.67 @ 07:19 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: $72.48 - Low Jun 4
• SUP 2: $71.33 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: $66.79 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - May 24 - 29 price swing

Despite the latest recovery in WTI futures, a bearish theme remains in play. Price has recently cleared $73.24, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull leg. This reinforces the current bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a downtrend. Sights are on $71.33 next, the Feb 5 low. Initial resistance is at $77.10, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $2345.8/2387.8 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 7
• PRICE: $2292.9 @ 07:19 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

A sharp sell-off in Gold Friday reinforces a short-term bearish theme. The yellow metal has cleared support around the 50-day EMA, at 2313.6. The break confirms a resumption of the reversal that started May 20 and signals scope for a deeper correction near-term. This has opened $2277.4, the May 3 low. Clearance of this price point would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial resistance to watch is $2387. 8, Friday’s high.

SILVER TECHS: Sell-Off Exposes Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $59.540 @ 08:13 BST Jun 10
• SUP 1: $29.040 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: $28.677 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver traded lower Friday and cleared support at $29.381, the Jun 4 low. The break lower signals scope for a deeper short-term retracement. Note that the current corrective cycle is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $28.677. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish theme. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $32.518, the May 20 high.