MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD/USD Arrives at Important Resistance

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Arrives at Important Resistance

• The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and the latest recovery appears - for now - to be a correction. Last Friday’s bearish extension reinforced current short-term conditions. The contract has recently cleared 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Tuesday, extending the recovery from 4762.00, the Apr 19 low. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and breached resistance at 4990.00, the Apr 15 high. This highlights a stronger reversal and signals the end of the correction between Apr 2 - 19.
• The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A recovery is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up and the recent break lower. The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position too and this set-up continues to highlight a clear rising trend. AUDUSD is trading higher this week and the pair has arrived at an important short-term pivot resistance. 0.6527 is the 50-day EMA and a clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a cimb towards 0.6644.
• Gold is trading closer to its recent lows. The precious metal has traded below the 20-day EMA and this signals the start of a possible corrective cycle. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards $2221.5, the 50-day EMA. WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows and price remains above key short-term support at $80.85, the 50-day EMA. The recent move lower highlights a corrective phase and a break of the 50-day average would signal a stronger bearish theme.
• The trend outlook in Bund futures is unchanged and remains bearish. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low Monday. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and attention is on 130.25. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and gains are considered corrective. The contract traded lower last week, delivering a fresh cycle low of 96.01 on Apr 17. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

EURUSD TECHS: Gains Appear To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.0786 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0729 L20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0706 @ 05:37 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 1.0601 Low Apr 16
• SUP 2: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23
• SUP 3: 1.0543 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high
• SUP 4: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 ‘23

EURUSD has recovered from its recent lows but gains have stopped short of troubling resistance. The move higher appears to be a correction. The recent break on Apr 12 of key support at 1.0695, Feb 14 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. This signals scope for 1.0568 next, the Nov 2 2023 low, and 1.0540, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high. Initial firm resistance is 1.0729, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 1.2803 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.2709 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.2517/1.2591 20-and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.2468 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 1.2453 @ 05:52 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 1.2300 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
• SUP 3: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Nov 10

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A recovery is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up and the recent break lower, maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.2266, the Nov 14 2023 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2517, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 0.8704 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8683 High Jan 2
• RES 2: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8645 High Apr 23
• PRICE: 0.8595 @ 06:07 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 0.8566 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase

The short-term trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. A strong rally last Friday resulted in a break of 0.8602, the Mar 22 high and a key resistance. The continuation higher Monday confirmed a range breakout and a resumption of the bull cycle that started Feb 14. This opens 0.8665 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 0.8566, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 156.47 2.00 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 155.29 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 2: 155.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 154.88 High Apr 23
• PRICE: 154.88 @ 06:36 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 153.59 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 153.13/151.32 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 150.27 Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: 149.03 Low Mar 19

The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position too and this set-up continues to highlight a clear rising trend. The trend is overbought, however, this is clearly not a concern for bulls at this stage. Sights are on the 155.00 handle next. On the downside, support lies at 153.13, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 167.70 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.46 1.236 proj of the Jan 1 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 2: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 165.85 Intraday high
• PRICE: 165.76 @ 06:54 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 163.89/162.28 Trendline from Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 161.07 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 160.72 38.2% retracement of the Dec 7 ‘23 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 4: 160.22 Low Mar 11

EURJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a breach of 165.35, the Mar 20 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher opens 166.46, a Fibonacci projection. Key trendline support at 163.89 remains intact. The line is drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear break of it is required to signal a short-term reversal. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6644 High Apr 9
• RES 3: 0.6617 50.0% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6557 38.2% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.527/30 50-day EMA / intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6513 @ 07:34 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 0.6441/6363 Low Apr 23 / 19
• SUP 2: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 and a key support

AUDUSD is trading higher this week and the pair has arrived at an important short-term pivot resistance. 0.6527 is the 50-day EMA and a clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a cimb towards 0.6644, the Apr 9 high. A bearish trend theme remains intact and a reversal lower would refocus attention on 0.6363, the Apr 19 low and bear trigger. A break of this support would resume the downtrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
• RES 2: 1.3804/46 High Apr 19 / 16
• RES 1: 1.3714 High Ap 23
• PRICE: 1.3674 @ 07:59 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 1.3655 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3598 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD traded lower again Tuesday. Nonetheless, a bullish trend condition remains intact and the most recent pullback appears to be a correction. The pair has recently cleared resistance at 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 high. This opens 1.3855 next, the Nov 10 ‘23 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. The 20-day EMA has been pierced. Support at the 50-day EMA lies at 1.3598.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 134.15 High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.48 High Mar 27
• RES 2: 133.05 High Apr 12
• RES 1: 131.81 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.74 @ 05:15 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 130.52 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 130.25 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 130.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.87 1.382 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

The trend outlook in Bund futures is unchanged and remains bearish. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low Monday. Key support at 131.23, the Feb 29 low, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and attention is on 130.25, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm resistance is at 133.05, the Apr 12 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective. First resistance is at 131.81, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 3: 118.100/118.310 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
• RES 1: 117.473 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.900 @ 05:28 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 116.730 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 116.518 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.306 1.382 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.135 1.50 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 27 price swing

The downtrend in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low Monday. Key support at 117.200, the Feb 29 low, has been cleared. The clear break confirms a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year and sights are on 116.518, a Fibonacci projection. For bulls, a break of resistance at 118.310, the Mar 27 high, would instead highlight a reversal. First resistance is 117.473, 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.010 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 and key resistance / High Mar 12
• RES 1: 105.512/680 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
• PRICE: 105.310 @ 05:41 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 105.265 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 105.178 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 18 - 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 105.106 1.382 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.047 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - Mar 18 - Mar 25 price swing

The trend condition in Schatz futures is unchanged and remains bearish. The recent break of support at 105.490, the Feb 29 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. The focus is on 105.178, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 105.790, the Mar 25 high. Initial firm resistance is at 105.428, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 100.05 High Mar 22
• RES 3: 99.37 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 99.10 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 97.69/98.23 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
• PRICE: 96.81 @ Close Apr 23
• SUP 1: 96.45/01 Low Apr 19 / 17
• SUP 2: 95.96 1.764 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 3: 95.41 2.00 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 95.00 Round number support

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and gains are considered corrective. The contract traded lower last week, delivering a fresh cycle low of 96.01 on Apr 17. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, MA studies have crossed, highlighting a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for an extension towards 95.96 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 98.23, the Apr 12 high.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.55/120.28 High Mar 27 / 14
• RES 1: 119.10 High Apr 10
• PRICE: 117.72 @ Close Apr 23
• SUP 1: 116.52 Low Feb 29
• SUP 2: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 115.70 Low Dec 8 ‘23 (cont)

A bearish threat in BTP futures remains present and the contract is trading closer to its latest lows. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and a breach of 118.33, the Mar 15 low. Attention is on 116.52, the Feb 29 low and 116.15, the Feb 22 low and a key support. A clear break of the latter level would signal a stronger reversal. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 119.10, the Mar 27 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Reversal Extends

• RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5079.00 High Apr 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 5043.00 High Apr 4
• RES 1: 5002.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4995.00 @ 05:59 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 4865.00/4762.00 50-day EMA / Low Apr 19 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
• SUP 3: 4700.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4626.00 Low Feb 13

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Tuesday, extending the recovery from 4762.00, the Apr 19 low. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and breached resistance at 4990.00, the Apr 15 high. This highlights a stronger reversal and signals the end of the correction between Apr 2 - 19. A continuation higher would expose the bull trigger at 5079.00, the Apr 2 high. Key support lies at 4762.00.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Approaching Resistance

• RES 4: 5285.00/5333.50 High Apr 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5213.25 High Apr 15
• RES 2: 5148.79 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 5136.32 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 5127.50 @ 06:54 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: 4963.50 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 4907.57 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 4863.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 4799.50 Low Jan 17

The short-term trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and the latest recovery appears - for now - to be a correction. Last Friday’s bearish extension reinforced current short-term conditions. The contract has recently cleared 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 4907.57 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is 5153.25, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M4) Key Short-Term Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $96.16 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $94.94 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $92.96 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $92.18 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $88.56 @ 07:02 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: $85.66 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $80.56 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $76.18 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $72.38 Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures for now, remain above recent lows and key support at $85.66, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down does highlight the start of a corrective cycle. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to suggest scope for a deeper retracement that would open $80.56, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $92.18, the Apr 12 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (M4) Remains Above Pivot Support

• RES 4: $91.24 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $88.07 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $86.97 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $83.54 @ 07:13 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: $80.85 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $76.07 - Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $71.47 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.11 - Low Jan 3

WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows and price remains above key short-term support at $80.85, the 50-day EMA. The recent move lower highlights a corrective phase and a break of the 50-day average would signal a stronger bearish theme and open $76.07, the Mar 11 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $86.97, the Apr 12 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2431.5 High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $2328.4 @ 07:19 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: $2291.6 - Low Apr 23
• SUP 2: $2221.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

Gold is trading closer to its recent lows. The precious metal has traded below the 20-day EMA and this signals the start of a possible corrective cycle. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards $2221.5, the 50-day EMA. Note that a short-term bear cycle would allow a significant overbought trend condition to unwind. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $2431.5, the recent Apr 12 high.

SILVER TECHS: Short-Term Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $28.936/29.797 - High Apr 19 / 12
• PRICE: $27.310 @ 08:07 BST Apr 24
• SUP 1: $26.668 - Low Apr 23
• SUP 2: $25.765/24.328 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

A sharp sell-off in Silver Monday highlights the start of a corrective cycle. The metal has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a move towards $25.765, the 50-day EMA. Note that a pullback is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. A break of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at $29.797, the Apr 12 high.