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MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD/USD Fade Proves Recent Gains as Corrective

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Fade Proves Recent Gains as Corrective

  • The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections remain shallow - a bullish signal. Support to watch is 5024.54, the 20-day EMA. A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains firmly intact and the contract has again traded higher this week. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment.
  • A broader bear threat in GBPUSD remains present and the latest pullback reinforces this theme. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 1.2519, the Feb 5 low. Clearance of this level would open 1.2500, the Dec 13 low. The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and yesterday’s sell-off appears to have been a correction. The pair pierced support at 149.66, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal potential for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA. AUDUSD is trading just above this week’s lows. Recent gains appear to have been a correction and the downtrend that started Dec 28, is intact. The pair has recently attempted to clear resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6567.
  • Gold has traded higher this week and the yellow metal is holding on to its latest gains. Recent activity has defined a key resistance at $2065.5, Feb 1 high, and a key support at $1984.3, Feb 14 low. They represent important short-term directional triggers. WTI futures traded higher Wednesday and in the process, the contract delivered a print above key resistance at $79.09, the Jan 29 high. This threatens the recent bearish theme and instead highlights potential for a continuation higher near-term.
  • The trend condition in Bund futures is unchanged and the direction remains down. Recent gains have proved to be a correction. Furthermore, moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a downtrend. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract traded lower Thursday, before recovering from the session low. Price breached support at 97.10, the Feb 27 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Below Resistance

  • RES 4: 1.1046 High Jan 2
  • RES 3: 1.0998 High Jan 5
  • RES 2: 1.0932 High Jan 24
  • RES 1: 1.0888/98 High Feb 22 and a key resistance / High Feb 02
  • PRICE: 1.0814 @ 05:35 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 1.0762/0695 Low Feb 20 / 14 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 1.0656 Low Nov 10
  • SUP 3: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
  • SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

EURUSD traded lower Thursday and remains below its Feb 22 high. The pair has pierced resistance around the 50-day EMA - at 1.0834. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal. 1.0888, the Feb 22 high, is also seen as a key resistance. A breach would open 1.0932, Jan 24 high. Note that the price pattern on Feb 22 is a shooting star candle and a possible reversal signal. A stronger move lower would expose 1.0695, Feb 14 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

  • RES 4: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
  • RES 3: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: 1.2775 High Jan 24
  • RES 1: 1.2709 High Feb 22
  • PRICE: 1.2626 @ 05:52 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 1.2580 Low Feb 20
  • SUP 2: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
  • SUP 4: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase

A broader bear threat in GBPUSD remains present and the latest pullback reinforces this theme. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 1.2519, the Feb 5 low. Clearance of this level would open 1.2500, the Dec 13 low, and 1.2432, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls resistance levels to watch are unchanged at 1.2775, the Jan 25 high and 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and key bull trigger.

EURGBP TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 0.8676 High Jan 3
  • RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
  • RES 2: 0.8593 High Jan 19
  • RES 1: 0.8578 High Feb 20 and key short-term resistance
  • PRICE: 0.8563 @ 06:16 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
  • SUP 2: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
  • SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023
  • SUP 4: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 2022

A bear cycle in EURGBP remains intact and MA studies continue to highlight a downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a bullish development. For bears, a resumption of weakness would expose support and the bear trigger at 0.8493, Aug 23 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the trend and open 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

  • RES 4: 152.43 0.764 proj of the Dec 28 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
  • RES 3: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
  • RES 2: 151.43 High Nov 16
  • RES 1: 150.89 High Feb 13 and bull trigger
  • PRICE: 150.36 @ 07:43 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 149.21/148.28 Low Feb 29 / 50-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 147.63 Low Feb 7
  • SUP 3: 145.90 Low Feb 1 and key support
  • SUP 4: 145.59 Low Jan 16

The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and yesterday’s sell-off appears to have been a correction. The pair pierced support at 149.66, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal potential for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 148.28. For bulls, a resumption of the trend would open 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 high and the Oct 1 ‘22 high and major resistance. The bull trigger is 150.89, Feb 13 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Support At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact For Now

  • RES 4: 166.46 1.236 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
  • RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 164.30 High Nov 16 and a key medium-term resistance
  • RES 1: 163.72 High Nov 27 and Feb 26
  • PRICE: 162.55 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 161.85 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 160.66 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 158.92 Low Feb 7
  • SUP 4: 158.08 Low Feb 1 and key support

The uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and the latest move lower appears to be a correction. Initial support to watch lies at 161.85, the 20-day EMA - a level pierced, but not convincingly broken on Thursday. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the 50-day EMA, at 160.66. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 163.72, the Nov 27 high (tested) ahead of key resistance at 164.30, the Nov 16 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish

  • RES 4: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
  • RES 2: 0.6663 High Jan 16
  • RES 1: 0.6595/6625 High Feb 22 / High Jan 30 and key resistance
  • PRICE: 0.6507 @ 07:28 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 0.6478/6443 Low Feb 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
  • SUP 3: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
  • SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10

AUDUSD is trading just above this week’s lows. Recent gains appear to have been a correction and the downtrend that started Dec 28, is intact. The pair has recently attempted to clear resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6567. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. A breach would open 0.6412, a Fibonacci retracement point.

USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

  • RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
  • RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
  • RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
  • RES 1: 1.3606 High Feb 28
  • PRICE: 1.3575 @ 07:53 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 1.3441/3359 Low Feb 22 / Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
  • SUP 2: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
  • SUP 3: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
  • SUP 4: 1.3229 Low Feb 1

USDCAD is holding on to its recent gains. The pair traded higher Wednesday, resulting in a print above resistance at 1.3586, the Feb 13 high and bull trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 1.3623 a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to watch lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.3441, the Feb 22 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Trend Needle Points South

  • RES 4: 135.88 High Feb 2
  • RES 3: 134.60 High Feb 7
  • RES 2: 133.75 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 133.22 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 132.45 @ 05:16 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 131.62 Low Feb 29
  • SUP 2: 131.49 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
  • SUP 3: 130.47 Low Nov 24
  • SUP 4: 129.76 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase

The trend condition in Bund futures is unchanged and the direction remains down. Recent gains have proved to be a correction. Furthermore, moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a downtrend. Yesterday’s fresh cycle low confirms a resumption of the downtrend with sights on 131.49 next, the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase. Initial resistance is at 133.22, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Fresh Cycle Low

  • RES 4: 117.880 High Feb 5
  • RES 3: 117.730 High Feb 7
  • RES 2: 117.199 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 116.280/734 High Feb 29 / 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 116.130 @ 05:34 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 115.710 Low Feb 29r
  • SUP 2: 115.508 1.236 proj of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 - Feb 1 price swing
  • SUP 3: 115.480 Low Oct 26 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 115.136 1.382 proj of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 - Feb 1 price swing

A bearish cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low yesterday. The move down confirms once again a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 27 and sights are on 115.508, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 116.734, the 20-day EMA, ahead of 117.199, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered part of a corrective bounce.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

  • RES 4: 105.659 50-day EMA
  • RES 3: 105.585 High Feb 15
  • RES 2: 105.414 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 105.310 High Feb 26
  • PRICE: 105.115 @ 05:46 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 104.980 Low Feb 29
  • SUP 2: 104.940 2.50 projection of the Jan 12 - 25 - 31 price swing
  • SUP 3: 104.880 2.618 projection of the Jan 12 - 25 - 31 price swing
  • SUP 4: 104.800 Low Oct 19 (cont)

The downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low Thursday. The latest move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note too that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. Short-term gains are considered corrective with firm resistance at the 20-day EMA - at 105.414. The next objective is 104.940, a Fibonacci projection.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Bear Threat Remains Present

  • RES 4: 99.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 3: 98.53 High Feb 26 and key short-term resistance
  • RES 2: 98.26 High Feb 27
  • RES 1: 98.18 High Feb 29
  • PRICE: 98.09 @ Close Feb 29
  • SUP 1: 96.83 Low Feb 29
  • SUP 2: 96.37 1.236 projection of the Feb 26 - 27 - 29 price swing
  • SUP 3: 96.00 Round number support
  • SUP 4: 95.75 1.764 projection of the Feb 26 - 27 - 29 price swing

A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract traded lower Thursday, before recovering from the session low. Price breached support at 97.10, the Feb 27 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. With 97.00 breached, attention turns to the 96.00 handle next. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 98.53, the Feb 26 high.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Bear Threat Still Present

  • RES 4: 121.43 High 27 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 120.40 High Dec 29
  • RES 2: 119.77 High Jan 4
  • RES 1: 119.27 High Jan 30 and key near-term resistance
  • PRICE: 117.82 @ Close Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 116.50 Low Feb 22
  • SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8
  • SUP 3: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle
  • SUP 4: 113.31 Low Nov 28

The trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Key support at 116.98, the Jan 25 low, has recently been cleared. The break signals a resumption of the bear cycle and sights are on 115.70, the Dec 8 low. Firm resistance has been defined at 119.27, the Jan 30 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery instead.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Extends

  • RES 4: 5000.00 Psychological round number
  • RES 3: 4988.60 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 27 low
  • RES 2: 4939.30 2.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
  • RES 1: 4921.00 Intraday high
  • PRICE: 4918.00 @ 06:10 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 4798.00/4785.90 High Feb 16 / 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 4671.00 Low Feb 13
  • SUP 3: 4663.20 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 4616.10 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 27 low

A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains firmly intact and the contract has again traded higher this week. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 4939.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards a bull channel top at 4988.60. The channel is drawn from the Oct 27 low. Initial firm support lies at 4785.90, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Trend Needle Points North

  • RES 4: 5180.34 3.0% Bollinger Band
  • RES 3: 5170.86 2.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
  • RES 2: 5162.04 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 1: 5123.50 High Feb 23 and bull trigger
  • PRICE: 5114.75 @ 07:15 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: 5024.54 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 4936.50 Low Feb 13
  • SUP 3: 4904.10/4866.000 50-day EMA / Low Jan 31 and key support
  • SUP 4: 4808.50 Low Jan 19

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections remain shallow - a bullish signal. Support to watch is 5024.54, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal potential for a deeper retracement towards 4936.50, the Feb 13 low. A resumption of gains would open vol-band based resistance at 5153.29.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K4) Key Resistance Remains Exposed

  • RES 4: $88.31 - High Oct 20
  • RES 3: $86.52 - High Oct 27
  • RES 2: $85.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle
  • RES 1: $83.65 - High Jan 29
  • PRICE: $82.21 @ 06:54 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: $80.39/76.41 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5 and key S/T support
  • SUP 2: $74.84 - Low Jan 03
  • SUP 3: $73.22 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: $70.80 - Low Jun 23 ‘23

Brent futures continue to hold on to the bulk of their recent gains. Attention is on the $83.65 key resistance, the Jan 29 high. A clear break of this hurdle would cancel a bearish theme and instead signal a resumption of the bull cycle that has been in place since Dec 13. This would open $85.47, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial pivot support to watch lies at $80.39, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (J4) Bull Cycle Extends

  • RES 4: $85.75 - High Sep 15 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: $84.66 - High Oct 20
  • RES 2: $81.70 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Dec 13 bear cycle
  • RES 1: $79.62 - High Feb 28
  • PRICE: $78.45 @ 07:06 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: $75.90/71.49 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5
  • SUP 2: $69.79 - Low Jan 3
  • SUP 3: $68.57 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Jun 12

WTI futures traded higher Wednesday and in the process, the contract delivered a print above key resistance at $79.09, the Jan 29 high. This threatens the recent bearish theme and instead highlights potential for a continuation higher near-term, towards $81.70, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch is at $75.90, the 50-day EMA. A break would instead signal a possible top.

GOLD TECHS: Holding On To This Weeks Gains

  • RES 4: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
  • RES 3: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
  • RES 2: $2088.5 - High Dec 28
  • RES 1: $2065.5 - High Feb 1 and key resistance
  • PRICE: $2048.4 @ 07:13 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: $2016.1/1984.3 - Low Feb 23 / 14
  • SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
  • SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
  • SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold has traded higher this week and the yellow metal is holding on to its latest gains. Recent activity has defined a key resistance at $2065.5, Feb 1 high, and a key support at $1984.3, Feb 14 low. They represent important short-term directional triggers. A clear break of the Feb 1 high would highlight a reversal and open $2088.5, the Dec 28 high. For bears, clearance of $1984.3 would expose an important support at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low.

SILVER TECHS: Support Stays Intact

  • RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
  • RES 2: $24.606 - High Dec 22
  • RES 1: $23.534 - High Jan 12 and a reversal trigger
  • PRICE: $22.637 @ 07:58 GMT Mar 1
  • SUP 1: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
  • SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
  • SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent breach (in January) of support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low, signals scope for $21.883, the Nov 13 low. A break of this level would further strengthen the bearish theme. Initial key resistance to watch is $23.534, the Jan 12 high. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a stronger reversal.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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