MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS -  AUD/USD Pierces Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Pierces Key Resistance

• S&P E-Minis are holding on to the bulk of recent gains. Last week’s bullish extension confirmed a break above the 50-day EMA. This reinforces short-term bullish conditions and suggests scope for a climb towards 4145.75 next, the Jun 9 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures touched a new high Friday at 3620.00, but the price has moved back into its recent range and the contract continues to consolidate.
• EURUSD remains in a S/T bull cycle following the recent recovery from the base of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. Current consolidation appears to be a bull flag formation and this pattern reinforces bullish conditions. USDJPY sank sharply Friday, taking out nearby support at the 20-day EMA of 136.68. The recent move lower is still considered corrective and attention turns to two key support levels. AUDUSD traded higher Friday, piercing the 50-day EMA on an intraday basis. This improves the near-term outlook and a continuation higher would open the Jun 16 high at 0.7069, and potentially 0.7141, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg.
• Gold bounced solidly off the Thursday low of 1681.0, and is holding on to its recent gains. Short-term gains are considered corrective, however, any break above resistance at $1745.4, the Jul 13 high, would strengthen a bullish set-up and suggest scope for a stronger corrective bounce. WTI futures trend conditions remain bearish. The contract continues to trade below the 50-day EMA that intersects at $101.62. Clearance of this average is required to strengthen bullish conditions and signal a stronger reversal.
• Bund futures remain in a clear uptrend and last Thursday’s rally confirmed a resumption of the trend. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and price remains above both the 50- and 20-day EMAs. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend - Friday’s gains resulted in a break of 117.09, the Jul 6 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Challenging The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.0459 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 1.0449 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 1.0359 Low Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.0243/78 20-day EMA / High Jul 21
• PRICE: 1.0198 @ 06:21 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 1.0120 Low Jul 19
• SUP 2: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD remains in a S/T bull cycle following the recent recovery from the base of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. Current consolidation appears to be a bull flag formation and this pattern reinforces bullish conditions. Attention is on the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of it would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for an extension within the channel - the top intersects at 1.0459. Initial support is at 1.0120, Jul 19 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 1.2227 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2213 High Jun 29
• RES 2: 1.2125 High Jul 5
• RES 1: 1.2064 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 1.1974 @ 06:28 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1640 Low Mar 25 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1503 Low Mar 24 2020

GBPUSD is unchanged and continues to consolidate with price still trading closer to its recent highs. An extension higher would signal scope for a stronger short-term rally and this would potentially open the 50-day EMA at 1.2277. A downtrend however remains in place for now, with the focus on 1.1673 next, a Fibonacci projection. The key support to watch is at 1.1760, the Jul 14 low. This is also the bear trigger.

EURGBP TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 3: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8627/79 High Jul 4 / High Jul 1
• RES 1: 0.8585 High Jul 21
• PRICE: 0.8520 @ 06:36 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 0.8458 Low Jul 18
• SUP 2: 0.8403/8393 Low Jul 12 / Low May 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8313 Low Apr 22

Recent gains in EURGBP are still considered corrective. Last week’s high of 0.8585 (Jul 21) has been defined as a key short-term resistance and if breached would signal scope for a stronger recovery. While this resistance holds, the outlook remains bearish and attention is on support at 0.8393, the May 17 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish case and clear the way for a deeper sell-off.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Channel Support

• RES 4: 141.47 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 140.71 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 137.96/39.39 High Jul 22 / 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 136.35 @ 06:54 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 135.57 Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 134.90 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 4 low
• SUP 3: 134.27 Low Jun 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 132.17 Low Jun 17

USDJPY sank sharply Friday, taking out nearby support at the 20-day EMA of 136.68. The recent move lower is still considered corrective and attention turns to two key support levels. 134.90 marks the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 4 low, and 134.27 is the Jun 23 low. A break of this support zone would signal scope for stronger reversal. The primary uptrend remains intact, 139.39 is the bull trigger.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 144.28 High Jun 28 and key resistance
• RES 3: 143.85 High Jun 29
• RES 2: 142.37 High Jul 5
• RES 1: 142.19 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 139.00 @ 07:05 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 138.72 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 137.99/36.87 Low Jul 14 / Low Jul 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 136.25 Low May 30
• SUP 4: 135.40 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 28 climb

EURJPY traded higher last week, but also found firm resistance at 142.32 on Jul 21. The pullback signals the end of a corrective recovery between Jul 8 - 21. A continuation lower would expose 136.87, Jul 8 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. For bulls, a move above 142.32 would instead suggest scope for a climb towards key resistance at 144.28, the Jun 28 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 2: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• RES 1: 0.6977 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 0.6922 @ 08:13 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 0.6859 Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: 0.6786/6682 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6588 Low May 28 2020

AUDUSD traded higher Friday, piercing the 50-day EMA on an intraday basis. This improves the near-term outlook and a continuation higher would open the Jun 16 high at 0.7069, and potentially 0.7141, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg. Any reversal lower would instead refocus attention on the 0.6682 bear trigger where a break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Key Support

• RES 4: 1.3226 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3224 High Jul 14
• RES 2: 1.3038 High Jul 18
• RES 1: 1.3169 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• PRICE: 1.2926 @ 08:24 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 1.2823 Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 1.2819 Low Jun 28 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.2763 Low Jun 13
• SUP 4: 1.2707 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD remains vulnerable and is trading closer to its recent lows. Attention is on the next key support at 1.2819, the Jun 28 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and also confirm a clear break of both the 20- and 50-day EMA values. This would open 1.2763, the Jun 13 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 1.3038. A breach would ease the current bearish threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 157.21 1.50 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 156.23 1.382 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 155.87 High May 12
• RES 1: 155.16/27 High Jul 22 / May 26
• PRICE: 154.18 @ 05:07 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 151.07 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 148.24 Low Jul 1
• SUP 4: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support

Bund futures remain in a clear uptrend and last Thursday’s rally confirmed a resumption of the trend. The break higher maintains the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and price remains above both the 50- and 20-day EMAs. The focus is on 155.27, the May 26 high. On the downside, key trend support has been defined at 149.69, the Jul 21 low. A breaK of this level would signal a potential top.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Challenges Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 127.940 1.50 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 127.160 High May 12
• RES 2: 126.879 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 126.860 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 126.350 @ 05:20 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 125.043 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 121.910 Low Jun 28 and a support

Bobl futures have defined a key short-term support at 124.030, the Jul 21 low. A bull cycle remains in play and Friday’s gains resulted in a high print above 126.560, the Jul 6 high and bull trigger. This signals a resumption of the current uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 127.160, the May 12 high. A break of 124.030 is required to signal a reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bull Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 110.412 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 110.256 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 110.063 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.005 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 109.745 @ 05:28 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 109.389 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.950 Low Jul 21
• SUP 3: 108.760/425 Low Jun 30 / Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 108.025 Low Jun 21

Schatz futures found support last week at 108.95, on Thursday. This marks a key short-term trend support. The current uptrend remains intact and attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 110.005, Jul 6 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle and open 110.063 and 110.256, Fibonacci projections. Note that price is also trading above the 50- and 20-day EMA’s, reinforcing current bullish conditions.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Trades Through Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 118.63 High May 24
• RES 3: 118.16 1.382 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 2: 117.48 1.236 proj of the Jun 16 - 24- 29 price swing
• RES 1: 117.09 High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 117.27 @ Close Jul 22
• SUP 1: 115.24 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 114.08/113.03 Low Jul 8 / Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 111.72 Low Jun 29 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 110.57 Low Jun 21

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish and last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend - Friday’s gains resulted in a break of 117.09, the Jul 6 high. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards 118.16 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 114.08, the Jul 8 low.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.00 High May 12
• RES 2: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 1: 124.79/126.41 High Jul 20 / High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 123.25 @ Close Jul 22
• SUP 1: 119.57 Low Jul 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 115.72 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 113.78 Contract Low

BTP futures traded lower last week, but did find support at 119.57, the Jul 22 low. The recent pullback is considered corrective and short-term bullish conditions remain intact. 119.57 has been defined as a key short-term support and if breached, would highlight a stronger reversal. An extension higher would refocus attention on key resistance at 126.41, the Jul high and bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Bull Flag

• RES 4: 3722.70 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3650.10 61.8% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg
• RES 1: 3620.00 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 3574.00 @ 05:38 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 2: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3321.30 50.0% of the major 2020 - 2021 upleg (cont)
• SUP 4: 3300.00 Round number support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures touched a new high Friday at 3620.00, but the price has moved back into its recent range and the contract continues to consolidate. This pause in the bull cycle appears to be a bull flag. If correct, it reinforces current bullish conditions and suggests scope for a stronger recovery towards 3689.00, Jun 10 high. The key support and bear trigger is unchanged at 3343.00, Jul 5 low. Initial support is at 3467.00.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4306.50 High May 4
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4145.75 High Jun 9
• RES 1: 4016.25 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 3959.75 @ 08:27 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: 3890.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3723.75/3639.00 Low Jul 14 / Low Jun 17 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 3500.00 Round number support

S&P E-Minis are holding on to the bulk of recent gains. Last week’s bullish extension confirmed a break above the 50-day EMA. This reinforces short-term bullish conditions and suggests scope for a climb towards 4145.75 next, the Jun 9 high. The next key resistance is at 4204.75, the May 31 high. On the downside, the 50-day EMA, at 3890.70, is the first support to watch. Major support lies at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U2) Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $118.12 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $116.24 - High Jun 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $114.75 - High Jul 5
• RES 1: $107.21/61 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 19
• PRICE: $102.64 @ 102.64 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: $98.17/94.50 - Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $90.33 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: $89.60 - Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: $86.74 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures trend conditions remain bearish and S/T resistance has been defined at $107.61, the Jul 19 high. The move lower also highlights the fact that the 50-day EMA, at $107.21, has provided resistance and this reinforces bearish conditions. An extension lower would pave the way for weakness towards $94.50, Jul 14 low and S/T bear trigger. For bulls, clearance of the 50-day EMA is required to pave the way for a stronger recovery.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $113.87 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $111.14 - High Jun 29 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: $101.62/108.28- 50-day EMA / High Jul 5
• RES 1: $99.58 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $93.94 @ 07:12 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: $91.64/88.23 - Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures trend conditions remain bearish. The contract continues to trade below the 50-day EMA that intersects at $101.62. Clearance of this average is required to strengthen bullish conditions and signal a stronger reversal. A continuation lower would open $88.23, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the current downtrend and this would open $85.37, the Mar 15 low.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: $18244 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 3: $11795.5 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16, recent breakout level
• RES 1: $1745.4/47.7 - High Jul 13 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1726.0 @ 08:48 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21
• SUP 2: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021
• SUP 4: $1638.0 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold bounced solidly off the Thursday low of 1681.0, and is holding on to its recent gains. Short-term gains are considered corrective, however, any break above resistance at $1745.4, the Jul 13 high, would strengthen a bullish set-up and suggest scope for a stronger corrective bounce. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bear trend. A break of $1681.0 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $20.601 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $20.464 - Low May 13 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: $19.398 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $18.596 @ 08:52 BST Jul 25
• SUP 1: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 2: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.735 - Low May 22 2020

Silver is consolidating. The outlook remains bearish and recent weakness confirmed a continuation of the current bear cycle that started Jun 6 and an extension of the broader downtrend that has been in place since early February 2021. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode condition highlighting current sentiment. Sights are on $17.312 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA, at $19.398, is a key short-term resistance.