MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD/USD Pullback Signals S/T Top

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Pullback Signals S/T Top

• The S&P E-Minis appears vulnerable following last week’s sharp move lower. Thursday’s sell-off reinforced a bearish threat and note that this also highlights the importance of a shooting star candle formation on Dec 13 - a reversal signal. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded sharply lower late last week to extend the pullback from 4043.00, the Dec 13 high. The move down suggests potential for a deeper retracement with sights on the 50-day EMA, at 3798.90.
• EURUSD traded higher last Thursday, extending recent gains, before pulling back. The break higher last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. USDJPY traded higher last Thursday and in the process, pierced resistance at 137.97, the Dec 13 high. The pair has also tested resistance at 137.88, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average, if seen, would signal scope for stronger recovery and highlight an extension of the corrective cycle. A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD last Thursday signals a short-term top and suggests scope for a deeper pullback near-term. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 0.6660.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish despite Thursday’s sell-off. Pullbacks are considered corrective and key short-term support to watch is $1765.9, Dec 5 low. The yellow metal breached $1810.0 last week, the Dec 5 high, to resume the uptrend. Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish. Recent gains however, have highlighted a bullish corrective cycle and last week this resulted in a test of the 20-day EMA, at $77.07.
• Bund futures traded lower last week to extend the current bear phase that started Dec 7. The move lower has resulted in a break of support at 139.13, Nov 28 low and this suggests scope for a deeper retracement. Gilt futures traded lower Friday, to extend the pullback from the Nov 24 high of 107.06. Price has pierced support at 103.54, the Nov 21 low. A clear break would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.0851 High Apr 25
• RES 3: 1.0787 High May 30 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0769/74 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Jun 9
• RES 1: 1.0736 2.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• PRICE: 1.0606 @ 05:45 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 1.0528 Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 1.0477 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0443 Low Dec 7 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0286 50-day EMA

EURUSD traded higher last Thursday, extending recent gains, before pulling back. The break higher last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.0736 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support to watch is at 1.0443, the Dec 7 low, where a break would signal a short-term top. Initial support lies at 1.0528, the Dec 13 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27
• RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2446 High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2175 @ 05:56 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 1.2122 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2107 Low Dec 7 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2054/1901 Low Dec 1 / Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 1.1883 50-day EMA

Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bullish, however, last Thursday’s strong sell-off signals a possible short-term top. Attention is on the first key support at 1.2107, the Dec 7 low. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a move towards 1.1901, the Nov 30 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2446, the Dec 14 high. A turn higher and a break of this hurdle, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Break Of The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8907 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 2: 0.8829 High Nov 09 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8776 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 0.8711 @ 06:10 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 0.8658/8593 50-day EMA / Low Dec 15
• SUP 2: 0.8555/47 200-dma / Low Dec 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP rallied sharply higher last Thursday and in the process cleared the 50-day EMA at 0.8658. The break higher improves the very short-term outlook for bulls and signals scope for a climb towards resistance at 0.8829, the Nov 9 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, key support has been defined at 0.8547, the Dec 1 low, where a break is required to signal a continuation of the downtrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Watching Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 141.61 High Nov 23
• RES 3: 140.19 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 137.88 /138.17 20-day EMA / High Dec 15
• PRICE: 136.04 @ 06:33 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 134.54/133.63 Dec 14 low / 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 132.56 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 131.08 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.41 Low Aug 2

USDJPY traded higher last Thursday and in the process, pierced resistance at 137.97, the Dec 13 high. The pair has also tested resistance at 137.88, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average, if seen, would signal scope for stronger recovery and highlight an extension of the corrective cycle. This would open 140.00 and 140.19, the 50-day EMA. On the downside, the bear trigger is unchanged, it lies at 133.63, the Dec 2 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact Despite The Latest Pullback

• RES 4: 148.40 High Oct 21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 2: 147.10 High Nov 9
• RES 1: 146.73 High Dec 15
• PRICE: 144.68 @ 06:55 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 143.96/82 Former trendline resistance / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 143.10 Low Dec 6
• SUP 3: 140.77 Low Dec 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 bull leg

EURJPY resumed its uptrend last Thursday but has since pulled back. The outlook remains bullish despite the latest move lower. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 21 high. The trendline intersects at 143.96 and represents support. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 146.73, the Dec 15 high. A clear break of support at 143.96 would instead be a bearish development.

AUDUSD TECHS: Strong Reversal Highlights S/T Top

• RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 0.6893 High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6712 @ 07:57 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 0.6676 Low Dec 16
• SUP 2: 0.6660/6585 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD last Thursday signals a short-term top and suggests scope for a deeper pullback near-term. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 0.6660. This represents a key short-term support and a break would suggest potential for a deeper retracement. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.6893, the Dec 13 high. A break would resume the recent uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3855 High Oct 21 - Nov 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 1: 1.3705 High Dec 16
• PRICE: 1.3655 @ 08:00 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 1.3519 Low Dec 14
• SUP 2: 1.3447/3385 Former trendline resistance / Low Dec 5
• SUP 3: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD traded higher Friday and pierced 1.3700, the Dec 7 high. The outlook remains bullish. The recent break of trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 high, has strengthened bullish conditions and this has opened 1.3751, the Nov 4 high. On the downside, a break below the former trendline resistance - at 1.3447 - would flip the outlook more negative and expose 1.3385, the Dec 5 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 143.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 142.91 High Dec 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 138.62/139.95 High Dec 16 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 137.52 @ 05:17 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 136.80 Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 136.48 76.4% retracement of the Nov 8 - Dec 7 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 136.11 Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: 134.50 Low Nov 8 and a key support

Bund futures traded lower last week to extend the current bear phase that started Dec 7. The move lower has resulted in a break of support at 139.13, Nov 28 low and this suggests scope for a deeper retracement. The focus is on 136.48 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 141.70, the Dec 13 high. The bull trigger is 142.91, the Dec 7 high.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 120.150 High Dec 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 119.490 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 119.230 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 117.720/118.260 High Dec 16 / Low Nov 28
• PRICE: 117.440 @ 05:21 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 2: 116.890 Low Nov 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 116.773 1.764 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.410 2.00 proj of the Dec 7 - 12 - 13 price swing

The sell-off late last week in Bobl futures has strengthened the current bearish cycle and support at 118.260, the Dec 13 low, has been cleared. The break lower signals scope for an extension towards 116.890 next, the Nov 8 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 119.490, the Dec 13 high. A break of this hurdle would signal the end of the cycle lower and refocus attention on key resistance at 120.150, the Dec 6 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Bearish Following Break Of Support

• RES 4: 106.875 High Dec 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 106.680 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 106.570 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 106.005/106.335 High Dec 16 / Low Nov 28
• PRICE: 105.915 @ 05:34 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 105.805 Low Dec 16
• SUP 2: 105.660 2.00 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 105.540 2.236 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.465 2.382 projection of the Dec 2 - 13 price swing

Schatz futures traded sharply lower last Thursday and in the process, cleared support at 106.335, the Nov 28 low. The break lower, signals potential for a deeper pullback. This has opened 105.660 and 105.540, Fibonacci projections. On the upside, 106.335 marks resistance. A firmer level is at 106.680, the Dec 13 high. A break of this level would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 106.875.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Pierces Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 107.06 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 106.95 High Dec 2
• RES 2: 106.18 High Dec 12
• RES 1: 105.29 High Dec 15
• PRICE: 103.58 @ Close Dec 16
• SUP 1: 103.10 Low Dec 16
• SUP 2: 103.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 102.77 Low Nov 10 (cont)
• SUP 4: 102.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded lower Friday, to extend the pullback from the Nov 24 high of 107.06. Price has pierced support at 103.54, the Nov 21 low. A clear break would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 103.00. On the upside, the bull trigger is unchanged at 107.06, the Nov 24 high, where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Initial resistance is at 105.29, the Dec 15 high.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.96 High Dec 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 117.93 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 113.23/116.43 High Dec 16 / High Dec 15
• PRICE: 112.36 @ Close Dec 16
• SUP 1: 111.26/00 Low Dec 16 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 110.71 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 109.46 Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: 107.51 Low Oct 24

BTP futures traded sharply lower last week, extending the current bear leg. The contract has cleared support at 115.01, the Nov 28 low and this signals scope for a deeper pullback. Attention is on the 111.00 handle. On the upside, initial firm resistance is far-off at 117.93, the Dec 13 high. A break would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 118.96, the Dec 7 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Testing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4230.50 High Feb 10 (cont)
• RES 3: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Oct ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 4043.00/4049.50 High Dec 13 / High Feb 23 (cont)
• RES 1: 3908.00 Low Dec 9
• PRICE: 3817.00 @ 05:50 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 3790.90/3788.00 50-day EMA / Low Dec 16
• SUP 2: 3720.00 Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 3646.50 50% retracement of the Sep - Dec bull cycle
• SUP 4: 35/0.00 Low Nov 3

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded sharply lower late last week to extend the pullback from 4043.00, the Dec 13 high. The move down suggests potential for a deeper retracement with sights on the 50-day EMA, at 3798.90. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a continuation lower. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 4043.00 where a break is required to resume the recent uptrend.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 4361.00 High Aug 16 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 4250.00 High Aug 26
• RES 2: 4194.25 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4043.00/4180.00 High Dec 15 / 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 3884.00 @ 06:51 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 3855.13 50.0% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 2: 3800.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3778.45 61.8% retracement of the Oct 13 - Dec 13 uptrend
• SUP 4: 3735.00 Low Nov 3 and a key support

The S&P E-Minis appears vulnerable following last week’s sharp move lower. Thursday’s sell-off reinforced a bearish threat and note that this also highlights the importance of a shooting star candle formation on Dec 13 - a reversal signal. A continuation lower would open 3855.13, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is unchanged at 4180.00, the Dec 13 high, where a break is required to resume the recent uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G3) Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: $91.63 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $89.37 - High Dec 1
• RES 2: $85.96 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $82.51/83.18 - 20-day EMA / High Dec 15
• PRICE: $79.45 @ 07:00 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: $78.10/75.11 - Low Dec 13 / Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $72.33 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $68.31 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing

Brent futures traded lower Friday. Recent gains have highlighted a bullish corrective cycle. Price has tested resistance at $82.51, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal potential for a stronger recovery and open the 50-day EMA, at $85.96. The broader trend outlook is bearish. A stronger reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and refocus attention on the Dec 9 low of $75.11 - the bear trigger.

WTI TECHS: (F3) Trading Below Last Week’s Highs

• RES 4: $89.20 - High Nov 11
• RES 3: $86.90 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $80.57 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.07/77.77 - 20-day EMA / High Dec 15
• PRICE: $74.57 @ 07:04 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: $73.21/70.08 - Low Dec 13 / 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $68.86 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 3: $66.06 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $63.80 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish. Recent gains however, have highlighted a bullish corrective cycle and last week this resulted in a test of the 20-day EMA, at $77.07. A clear break of this hurdle would signal scope for an extension and open $80.57, the 50-day EMA. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger which lies at $70.08, the Dec 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1842.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 1: $1824.5 - High Dec 13 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1792.4 @ 07:20 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: $1774.3/65.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: $1729.0 - Low Nov 23 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: $1664.8 - Low Sep 8

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish despite Thursday’s sell-off. Pullbacks are considered corrective and key short-term support to watch is $1765.9, Dec 5 low. The yellow metal breached $1810.0 last week, the Dec 5 high, to resume the uptrend. This maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and opens $1842.7, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a break of $1765.9 would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 2: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 1: $24.129 - High Dec 13
• PRICE: $23.242 @ 08:05 GMT Dec 21
• SUP 1: $22.025 - Low Dec 6 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.452/20.585 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21 and key support
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3

The trend outlook in Silver remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The recent break of $23.517, Dec 5 high, highlights a continuation of the bull cycle and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This paves the way for $24.729, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $22.025, the Dec 6 low.