MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bear Threat for Bonds Remains Present

Price Signal Summary – Bear Threat for Bonds Remains Present

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest move higher again highlights the fact that corrections remain shallow - a bullish signal. Support to watch is 5016.21, the 20-day EMA. A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains firmly intact and the contract has traded higher this week. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position too, highlighting positive market sentiment.
• EURUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA - at 1.0835. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal. 1.0888, the Feb 22 high, is also seen as a key resistance. The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and today’s sell-off - for now - appears to be a correction. Initial support lies at 149.63, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average is required to signal potential for a deeper retracement. AUDUSD traded lower Wednesday. Recent gains appear to be a correction and the downtrend that started Dec 28, remains intact. The pair has recently attempted to clear resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6570.
• Gold is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. Recent activity has defined a key resistance at $2065.5, Feb 1 high, and a key support at $1984.3, Feb 14 low. Both levels represent important short-term directional triggers. WTI futures traded higher Wednesday and in the process, the contract has delivered a print above key resistance at $79.09, the Jan 29 high. This threatens the recent bearish theme and instead highlights potential for a continuation higher near-term.
• The trend condition in Bund futures is unchanged and the direction remains down. Recent gains appear to have been a correction. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bear-mode set-up too, highlighting a downtrend. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The recent breach of support levels strengthens a bearish theme and confirms a resumption of the downtrend.

EURUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 3: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 2: 1.0932 High Jan 24
• RES 1: 1.0888/98 High Feb 22 and a key resistance / High Feb 02
• PRICE: 1.0836 @ 05:46 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: 1.0762/0695 Low Feb 20 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0656 Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

EURUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA - at 1.0835. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal. 1.0888, the Feb 22 high, is also seen as a key resistance. Clearance of it would open 1.0932, the Jan 24 high. Note that the price pattern on Feb 22 is a shooting star candle (inverted hammer) and a possible reversal signal. A move lower would expose 1.0695, Feb 14 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2775 High Jan 24
• RES 1: 1.2709 High Feb 22
• PRICE: 1.2667 @ 05:51 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: 1.2580 Low Feb 20
• SUP 2: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 4: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase

Despite holding on to its recent gains, a broader bear threat in GBPUSD remains present and the recent climb appears to be a correction - for now. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 1.2519, the Feb 5 low. Clearance of this level would open 1.2500, the Dec 13 low, and 1.2432, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls resistance levels to watch are 1.2775, the Jan 25 high and 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and key bull trigger.

EURGBP TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight A Downtrend

• RES 4: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8593 High Jan 19
• RES 1: 0.8578 High Feb 20 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8555 @ 06:05 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 2: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023
• SUP 4: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 2022

A bear cycle in EURGBP remains intact and moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend. A resumption of weakness would expose support and the bear trigger at 0.8493, Aug 23 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the trend and open 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high. A break of this level would instead highlight a bullish development.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 152.43 0.764 proj of the Dec 28 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
• RES 2: 151.43 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 150.89 High Feb 13
• PRICE: 149.79 @ 06:44 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: 149.63/148.21 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 147.63 Low Feb 7
• SUP 3: 145.90 Low Feb 1 and key support
• SUP 4: 145.59 Low Jan 16

The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and today’s sell-off - for now - appears to be a correction. Initial support lies at 149.63, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the average is required to signal potential for a deeper retracement, towards the 50-day EMA, at 148.21. For bulls, the recent pause appears to be a bull flag formation. A resumption of the trend would open 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 high and the Oct 1 ‘22 high and major resistance.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching SUpport

• RES 4: 166.46 1.236 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 164.30 High Nov 16 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 1: 163.72 High Nov 27 and Feb 26
• PRICE: 162.24 @ 06:58 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: 161.83 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 160.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 158.92 Low Feb 7
• SUP 4: 158.08 Low Feb 1 and key support

EURJPY maintains a firmer tone and the latest move lower appears to be a correction. Initial support to watch lies at 161.83, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback that would expose the 50-day EMA, at 160.60. MA studies continue to highlight a bull trend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 163.72, the Nov 27 high (tested) ahead of key resistance at 164.30, the Nov 16 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Technical Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• RES 2: 0.6663 High Jan 16
• RES 1: 0.6595/6625 High Feb 22 / High Jan 30 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6512 @ 07:27 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: 0.6478/6443 Low Feb 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10

AUDUSD traded lower Wednesday. Recent gains appear to be a correction and the downtrend that started Dec 28, remains intact. The pair has recently attempted to clear resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6570. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. A breach would open 0.6412, a Fibonacci retracement point.

USDCAD TECHS: Pierces Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3606 High Feb 28
• PRICE: 1.3576 @ 07:49 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: 1.3441/3359 Low Feb 22 / Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 3: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 1.3229 Low Feb 1

USDCAD traded higher Wednesday, resulting in a print above resistance at 1.3586, the Feb 13 high and bull trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 1.3623 a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to watch lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.3441, the Feb 22 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 135.88 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 134.60 High Feb 7
• RES 2: 133.80 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 133.28 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 132.16 @ 05:27 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: 131.78 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 131.49 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
• SUP 3: 130.47 Low Nov 24
• SUP 4: 129.76 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase

The trend condition in Bund futures is unchanged and the direction remains down. Recent gains appear to have been a correction. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bear-mode set-up too, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 131.49 next, the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase. Clearance here would strengthen a bearish theme. For bulls, initial resistance is at 133.28, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 117.880 High Feb 5
• RES 3: 117.730 High Feb 7
• RES 2: 117.238 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 116.788 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.040 @ 05:45 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: 115.920 Low Feb 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.739 Lower 2.0% Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: 115.820 Low Nov 24
• SUP 4: 115.650 Low Nov 14

A bearish cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the contract is trading at its recent lows. The move down last week confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 27 and sights are on 115.820, the Nov 24 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 116.788, the 20-day EMA, ahead of 117.238, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered part of a corrective bounce.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 105.751 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 105.585 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 105.442 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.310 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 105.120 @ 05:59 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: 105..075 Low Feb 23
• SUP 2: 105.000 2.236 projection of the Jan 12 - 25 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.940 2.50 projection of the Jan 12 - 25 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.880 2.618 projection of the Jan 12 - 25 - 31 price swing

The downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent lows. The latest move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note too that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. Short-term gains are considered corrective with firm resistance at the 20-day EMA - at 105.442. The next objective is 105.00, a Fibonacci projection.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 99.42 1.236 projection of the Feb 22 - 26 price swing
• RES 3: 99.08 1.00 projection of the Feb 22 - 26 price swing
• RES 2: 98.74 0.764 projection of the Feb 22 - 26 price swing
• RES 1: 98.53 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 97.56 @ Close Feb 28
• SUP 1: 97.35 Low Feb 27
• SUP 2: 97.10 Low Feb 22
• SUP 3: 97.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 96.67 Low Dec 5

A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The recent breach of support levels strengthens a bearish theme and confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on the 97.00 handle next. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 98.53, Monday’s high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective ahead of a resumption of weakness.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 121.43 High 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 120.40 High Dec 29
• RES 2: 119.77 High Jan 4
• RES 1: 119.27 High Jan 30 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 117.46 @ Close Feb 28
• SUP 1: 116.50 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8
• SUP 3: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 113.31 Low Nov 28

The trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. Key support at 116.98, the Jan 25 low, has recently been cleared. The break signals a resumption of the bear cycle and sights are on 115.70, the Dec 8 low. Firm resistance has been defined at 119.27, the Jan 30 high. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery instead.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 4981.90 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 27 low
• RES 3: 4939.30 2.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4904.40 2.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 4901.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4893.00 @ 06:24 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: 4798.00/4774.50 High Feb 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4671.00 Low Feb 13
• SUP 3: 4653.80 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4609.40 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 27 low

A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains firmly intact and the contract has traded higher this week. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position too, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 4904.40 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards a bull channel top at 4981.90. The channel is drawn from the Oct 27 low. Initial firm support lies at 4774.50, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 5191.21 3.0% Bollinger Band
• RES 3: 5170.86 2.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 5153.29 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 5123.50 High Feb 23 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 5080.75 @ 07:13 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: 5016.21 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4936.50 Low Feb 13
• SUP 3: 4904.10/4866.000 50-day EMA / Low Jan 31 and key support
• SUP 4: 4808.50 Low Jan 19

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest move higher again highlights the fact that corrections remain shallow - a bullish signal. Support to watch is 5016.21, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal potential for a deeper retracement towards 4936.50, the Feb 13 low. A resumption of gains would open vol-band based resistance at 5153.29.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K4) Watching Key Resistance

• RES 4: $88.31 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $86.52 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $85.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $83.656 - High Jan 29
• PRICE: $82.03 @ 06:58 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: $80.33/76.41 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $74.84 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: $73.22 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.80 - Low Jun 23 ‘23

Brent futures continue to hold on to the bulk of their recent gains. Attention is on the $83.65 key resistance, the Jan 29 high. A clear break of this hurdle would cancel a bearish theme and instead signal a resumption of the bull cycle that has been in place since Dec 13. This would open $85.47, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial pivot support to watch lies at $80.33, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (J4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $85.75 - High Sep 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $84.66 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $81.70 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $79.62 - High Feb 28
• PRICE: $78.39 @ 07:05 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: $75.80/71.49 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: $69.79 - Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: $68.57 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Jun 12

WTI futures traded higher Wednesday and in the process, the contract has delivered a print above key resistance at $79.09, the Jan 29 high. This threatens the recent bearish theme and instead highlights potential for a continuation higher near-term, towards $81.70, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch is at $75.80, the 50-day EMA. A break would instead signal a possible top.

GOLD TECHS: Continues To Trade Between Its Directional Triggers

• RES 4: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 3: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 2: $2088.5 - High Dec 28
• RES 1: $2041.4/2065.5 - High Feb 23 / Feb 1 and key resistance
• PRICE: $2037.2 @ 07:11 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: $1984.3 - Low Feb 14
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. Recent activity has defined a key resistance at $2065.5, Feb 1 high, and a key support at $1984.3, Feb 14 low. Both levels represent important short-term directional triggers. A clear break of the Feb 1 high would highlight a short-term reversal and open $2088.5, the Dec 28 high. For bears, clearance of $1984.3 would expose an important support and bear trigger at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low.

SILVER TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606 - High Dec 22
• RES 1: $23.534 - High Jan 12 and a reversal trigger
• PRICE: $22.503 @ 07:58 GMT Feb 29
• SUP 1: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The recent breach (in January) of support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low, signals scope for $21.883, the Nov 13 low. A break of this level would further strengthen the bearish theme. Initial key resistance to watch is $23.534, the Jan 12 high. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a stronger reversal.