MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bear Threat in Stocks Present

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – Bear Threat in Stocks Remains Present

• Short-term gains in S&P E-Minis are - for now - considered corrective. However, Tuesday’s strong rally delivered a print above the 50-day EMA, at 5454.71. A clear break of this average would undermine the recent bearish theme. A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the latest climb appears to be a correction - for now. Attention is on first resistance at 4774.23, the 20-day EMA. A break of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger retracement.
• GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday and the pair is holding on to this week’s gains. The climb undermines the recent bearish theme and price has traded above the 20-day EMA - at 1.2807. A continuation higher would highlight a stronger reversal. USDJPY is in consolidation mode. A bearish condition remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The recent impulsive sell-off strengthened the trend condition. The move down signals scope for an extension towards the next key support at 140.25. A bearish theme is AUDUSD remains intact. However, from a short-term perspective, a corrective cycle is in play and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 0.6614.
• WTI futures rallied sharply higher Monday. The move undermines a recent bearish theme and price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $80.77, a Fibonacci retracement. Gold is holding on to its latest gains. Recent weakness appears to be corrective and the trend structure remains bullish. Note that the yellow metal has recently pierced support at the 50-day EMA - currently at $2389.0. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. 
• The trend condition in Bund futures remains in play and recent gains reinforce this theme. 133.21, Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. This week’s recovery is a positive development, signalling the end of the correction. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 101.78. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North 

• RES 4: 1.1229 High Jul 20 2023
• RES 3: 1.1150 High Jul 27 2023
• RES 2: 1.1139 High Dec 29 2023 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.47/1084  High Aug 14 / High Dec 29 2023
• PRICE: 1.1012 @ 06:02 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 1.0903 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0856 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3 

EURUSD traded higher Tuesday and Wednesday as the pair extends this week’s bull phase. Resistance at 1.1008, the Aug 5 high, has been cleared and this confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 1.1084, the Dec 29 ‘23 high. Note moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend condition. Initial support to watch lies at 1.0903, the 20-day EMA.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Strong Bounce     

• RES 4: 1.3114 - 2.00 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing    
• RES 3: 1.3044 High Jul 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2955 76.4% retracement of the Jul 17 - Aug 8 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2899 61.8% retracement of the Jul 17 - Aug 8 bear leg 
• PRICE: 1.2839 @ 06:15 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1:1.2762/2665 Low Aug 14 / 8 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2584 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2510 Low May 14 

GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday and the pair is holding on to this week’s gains. The climb undermines the recent bearish theme and price has traded above the 20-day EMA - at 1.2807. A continuation higher would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a climb towards 1.2955, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support has been defined at 1.2665, the Aug 8 low, where a break is required to once again resume recent bearish activity.            

EURGBP TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 0.8715 High Dec 28    
• RES 3: 0.8677 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 ‘23 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8625 High Aug 8 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8574 @ 06:22 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 0.8531 Low Aug 13  
• SUP 2: 0.8514 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8492 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 0.8418 Low Aug 1

EURGBP maintains a bullish tone and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Recent impulsive gains resulted in the break of a number of key resistance points, cancelling a bearish theme and highlighting potential for 0.8645, the Apr 23 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8492, the 50-day EMA. First support is 0.8531, the Aug 13 low. A retracement is allowing an overbought condition to unwind.    

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Phase Still In Play     

• RES 4: 153.41 50-day EMA   
• RES 3: 150.07 20-day EMA  
• RES 2: 149.77 High Aug 2    
• RES 1: 148.22 High Aug 12   
• PRICE: 147.10 @ 06:36 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 144.29 Low Aug 7    
• SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28   

USDJPY is in consolidation mode. A bearish condition remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The recent impulsive sell-off strengthened the trend condition. The move down signals scope for an extension towards the next key support at 140.25, the Dec 28 ‘23 low. Note that the downtrend remains oversold, and the latest recovery is allowing this set-up to unwind. Resistance to watch is 150.07, 20-day EMA.  

EURJPY TECHS: Unwinding An Oversold Condition        

• RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14  
• RES 3: 166.51 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 163.59 20-day EMA      
• RES 1: 162.89 High Aug 1
• PRICE: 162.04 @ 06:47 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23 
• SUP 3: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 ‘23

The trend outlook in EURJPY is bearish and the recent impulsive sell-off reinforced this theme. The move down signals scope for an extension towards the next key support at 153.23, the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A break of this price point would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the cross is oversold and the latest recovery - a correction - is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is 163.59, the 20-day EMA.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Has Pierced The 50-Day EMA  

• RES 4: 0.6799 High Jul 11 and key resistance      
• RES 3: 0.6744 High Jul 18                
• RES 2: 0.6693 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.6643 High Aug 14 
• PRICE: 0.6620 @ 07:50 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23   
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23   
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 and a key support  

A bearish theme is AUDUSD remains intact. However, from a short-term perspective, a corrective cycle is in play and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 0.6614. A clear break of this average would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for stronger gains, towards 0.6693, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on 0.6530, the Aug 5 low.     

USDCAD TECHS: Retracement Mode 

• RES 4: 1.4048 High May 22 2020 
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022
• RES 2: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5 and bull trigger  
• RES 1: 1.3758 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3706 @ 07:54 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 1.3689/57 Low Aug 14 / Low Jul 17 
• SUP 2: 1.3589 Low Jun 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and recent gains reinforce this theme. However, note that the pair has breached an important support at 1.3730, the 50-day EMA. An extension lower would undermine the bull theme and highlight scope for a deeper retracement towards 1.3657, the Jul 17 low. On the upside, a confirmed reversal higher would refocus attention on 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and key resistance.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Trend Condition Remains Bullish  

• RES 4: 137.26 3.50 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing         
• RES 3: 136.99 3.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
• RES 2: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 135.59/136.28 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger                      
• PRICE: 134.83 @ 05:35 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 133.94 Low Aug 7           
• SUP 2: 133.87 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 132.91/131.62 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 131.39 Low Jul 15  

The trend condition in Bund futures remains in play and recent gains reinforce this theme. 133.21, Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too. Sights are on 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. The contract remains below the Aug 5 high, a pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A firm support to watch is 133.87, 20-day EMA.    

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Support Remains Intact                                          

• RES 4: 120.000 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 119.730 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing  
• RES 2: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing      
• RES 1: 118.530/119.090 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger                
• PRICE: 118.110 @ 05:52 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 117.614 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 117.071/116.320 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22   
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11 
• SUP 4: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support

Bobl futures are in consolidation mode. The uptrend remains intact and the pullback from the Aug 5 high appears to be a correction. This move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a breach of a key resistance at 117.160, the Jun 14 high. This break, together with the subsequent impulsive rally, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on 119.234, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 117.614, 20-day EMA.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Remains Above Support At The 20-Day EMA  

• RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 1: 106.500/106.810 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 106.385 @ 06:04 BST Aug 14
• SUP 1: 106.123 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 105.913/893 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22  
• SUP 3: 105.495 Low Jul 11 
• SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support 

An uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. The contract remains above an initial firm support at 106.123, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be seen as an early bearish development. For bulls, a resumption of gains would signal the end of the corrective cycle and open 106.916, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in bull-mode setup, highlighting an uptrend.                       

GILT TECHS: (U4) Bullish Theme                                           

• RES 4: 102.15 2.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 102.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 101.78 2.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 100.80/101.46 High Aug 14 / High Aug 5 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 100.76 @ Close Aug 14 
• SUP 1: 99.40 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 98.69/97.46 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 96.96 Low Jul 3 
• SUP 4: 96.57 Low Jul 1

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. This week’s recovery is a positive development, signalling the end of the correction. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 101.78, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial key support lies at 99.40, the 20-day EMA. The latest pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind.     

BTP TECHS: (U4) Fresh Cycle High 

• RES 4: 121.25 2.382 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 120.85 2.236 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 2: 120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 1: 120.00 Psychological round number 
• PRICE: 119.72 @ Close Aug 14
• SUP 1: 118.66/117.90 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support 

The medium-term trend in BTP futures remains bullish and Tuesday’s rally reinforces this theme. The contract breached immediate resistance at 119.57, the Aug 2 high, confirming a resumption of the bull cycle. The break opens the 120.00 handle next. The contract remains above initial firm support at 118.66, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 117.90. A clear breach of both EMAs would instead highlight a bearish threat and a potential reversal.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Corrective Recovery Extends        

• RES 4: 5087.00 High Jul 12   
• RES 3: 4951.00 High Jul 31       
• RES 2: 4868.21 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4774.23 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 4760.00 @ 06:14 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 4614.00/4494.00 Low Aug 8 / 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 4424.64 61.8% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - May 16 bull cycle (cont) 
• SUP 4: 4502.00 Low Jan 24 (cont)

A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the latest climb appears to be a correction - for now. Attention is on first resistance at 4774.23, the 20-day EMA. A break of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger retracement, towards key resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 4868.21. For bears, a reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and refocus attention on the bear trigger at 4494.00, the Aug 5 low.             

E-MINI S&P: (U4) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA      

• RES 4: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance   
• RES 3: 5664.00 High Jul 18 
• RES 2: 5579.35 76.4% retracement of the Jul 16 - Aug 5 bear leg 
• RES 1: 5492.00 Intraday high       
• PRICE: 5486.25 @ 07:15 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: 5319.50 Low Aug 9  
• SUP 2: 5182.0/5120.00 Low Aug 8 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 5092.00 Low May 2  
• SUP 4: 5020 Low Apr 19 and a key support

Short-term gains in S&P E-Minis are - for now - considered corrective. However, Tuesday’s strong rally delivered a print above the 50-day EMA, at 5454.71. A clear break of this average would undermine the recent bearish theme and instead signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 5579.35, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 5120.00, the Aug 5 low.     

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V4) Short-Term Outlook Appears Bullish  

• RES 4: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $87.05 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $84.22 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 low 
• RES 1: $82.40 - High Aug 12    
• PRICE: $79.81 @ 06:53 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: $78.77 - Low Aug 9  
• SUP 2: $75.05/74.96 - Low Aug 5 and a key support / Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.60 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing   

Brent futures have pulled back from their recent highs. A strong rally on Monday highlights a possible short-term reversal and undermines the recent bearish theme. A continuation higher would strengthen a bullish theme and open $84.22, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a reversal lower would instead refocus attention on the key short-term support at $75.05, the Aug 5 low.   

WTI TECHS: (U4) Bullish Set-Up   

• RES 4: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $83.58 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $82.27 - High Jul 18  
• RES 1: $80.77 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 low    
• PRICE: $77.18 @ 07:06 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: $74.60/71.67 - Low Aug 8 / 5 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: $70.73 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $69.16 - Low Dec 13 2023
• SUP 4: $67.37 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing 

WTI futures rallied sharply higher Monday. The move undermines a recent bearish theme and price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $80.77, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open $83.58, the Jul 5 high. On the downside, the contract has pulled back from the recent high. A stronger sell-off would refocus attention on key support at $71.67, Aug 5 low.   

GOLD TECHS: Bull Trigger Remains Exposed 

• RES 4: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2500.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $2483.7 - High Jul 17 and the bull trigger                  
• PRICE: $2456.4 @ 07:11 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: $2353.2 - Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support 
• SUP 4: $2228.6 - Low Apr 1

Gold is holding on to its latest gains. Recent weakness appears to be corrective and the trend structure remains bullish. Note that the yellow metal has recently pierced support at the 50-day EMA - currently at $2389.0. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $2277.4, the May 3 low and a key support. Attention is on $2483.7, the Jul 17 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.      

SILVER TECHS: Monitoring Resistance 

• RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg        
• RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $28.783/31.754 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 11                
• PRICE: $27.949 @ 07:57 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: $26.451- Low Aug 8
• SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27 
• SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28 

A bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and recent weakness reinforces current conditions. The metal last week traded to a fresh short-term cycle low and this has exposed the next key support at $26.018, the May 2 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $28.783, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a possible reversal.