MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Bond Risk Still Present

Price Signal Summary - FI Bearish Risk Still Present
The outlook for equity indices is unchanged and the broader bull trend remains intact. The EUROSTOXX50 index has traded just short of key resistance at 3742.53, Feb 15 high and the bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend and open 3798.19, 0.764 projection of the Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 swing. E-mini S&P futures have managed thus far to find support at the 50-day EMA. Levels to watch today are.

• Support at 3785.00, Friday's low. A break would trigger a deeper sell-off.
• Initial resistance at 3934.50, Feb 25 high

In the FX space, EURUSD remains vulnerable despite gains earlier in the week. The breach of support yesterday at 1.2023, Feb 17 opens 1.1952, Feb 5 low. USDJPY uptrend remains intact and the pair is holding onto recent gains. The focus is on 107.05 next, Aug 13, 2020 high. On the USD Index, key resistance is 91.60, Feb 5 high.
On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear downtrend. Resistance is at $1775.9, Feb 26 high. The focus is on $1700.0. Oil contracts are firmer today but remain in a bearish corrective cycle. Brent (K1) targets the $70.00 psychological handle but watch support at $61.39 Feb 19 low. WTI (J1) targets the round number resistance at $65.00. However, keep an eye on support at $58.60, Feb 19 low.
In the FI space, gains in Bunds (H1) are still considered corrective. Firm resistance is seen at 175.03, the 20-day EMA. The average remains intact and the contract is lower today. Gilts (M1) remains bearish. Scope is for a move towards the 127.00 handle. Resistance seen at 129.27, this week's high. Treasuries are still trading within the body of price action from Feb 25. In candle terms the pattern on this day is a bearish standard line - a continuation pattern. Attention is on 131-31, Feb 25 low. Key S/T resistance is at 134-06+, the Feb 25 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 1.2255 76.4% retracement of the Jan - Feb sell off
• RES 3: 1.2243 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2184 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 1.2113 High Mar 3
• PRICE: 1.2056 @ 06:02 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 1.1992 Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: 1.1952 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1945 23.6% retracement of the Mar - Jan rally
• SUP 4: 1.1908 Low Nov 27

The EURUSD short-term outlook remains bearish. This follows the recent move lower and the confirmation of bearish candle patterns on Feb 25, a shooting star, and bearish engulfing on Feb 26. The move this week, on Tuesday through support at 1.2023 reinforces the bearish patterns and signals scope for 1.1952, Feb 5 low. On the upside, 1.2113 is initial resistance. A clear breach of this level would expose 1.2184, Feb 26 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Consolidating And Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.4237 High Feb 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4182 High Feb 25
• RES 2: 1.4148 Bull channel top drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low
• RES 1: 1.4029 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 1.3958 @ 06:23 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 1.3859/30 Low Mar 2 / Low Feb 17
• SUP 2: 1.3823 61.8% Retracement February Rally
• SUP 3: 1.3776 Low Feb 12 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3751 50-day EMA

Cable is consolidating. The pair remains vulnerable following the pullback from the Feb 24 high of 1.4237. Price earlier this week traded below the 20-day EMA and a clear breach would signal scope for a move towards 1.3823, a retracement level, and the key near-term support at 1.3776, Feb 12 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.4029, Feb 26 high. Key trend support is 1.3692, the bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Below The Feb 26 High

• RES 4: 0.8803 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 0.8797 High Feb 9
• RES 2: 0.8739 Low Feb 5
• RES 1: 0.8731 High Feb 26 and the short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8640 @ 06:28 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Feb 26
• SUP 2: 0.8541 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8528 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8475 2.0% 10-dma Envelope

EURGBP is unchanged and still trading below the Feb 26 high of 0.8731. Technical signals continue to highlight a bearish trend and further weakness would open 0.8597, Feb 25 low ahead of the bear trigger at 0.8541, Feb 24 low. A break of the latter resumes the downtrend. On the upside, a move above 0.8731 would signal a resumption of the recent corrective bounce and this would expose the 50-day EMA at 0.8803.

USDJPY TECHS: Trades Above 107.00

• RES 4: 108.16 High Jul 1, 2020
• RES 3: 107.79 High Jul 7, 2020
• RES 2: 107.53 High Jul 20, 2020
• RES 1: 107.15 High Mar 3 / 50.0% of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg
• PRICE: 106.93 @ 16:49 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 106.68 Low Mar 2 and 3
• SUP 2: 106.22 High Feb 17 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 105.85 Low Feb 25/26
• SUP 4: 105.73 20-day EMA

The USDJPY outlook remains bullish with the pair holding onto recent gains and has traded above 107.00. Last week's break of 106.22, Feb 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Bulls have not looked back with price also holding above trendline support drawn off the Jan 1 low. The focus is on 107.53 next, Jul 20, 2020 high. Support lies at 106.68, Mar 2/3 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Trend Intact

• RES 4: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 130.73 1.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 2: 129.98 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.52 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 129.17 @ 06:37 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 128.19 Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: 127.98 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 127.31 Low Feb 17
• SUP 4: 127.04 Low Feb 15

EURJPY is back above 129.00. The cross maintains its underlying bullish tone despite the recent move lower from last week's Feb 25 high of 129.98. However, from a short-term perspective trend conditions are overbought and the risk of a corrective pullback remains present. If this occurs, a move lower would open 127.98, the 20-day EMA. For bulls, clearance of 129.98 resumes the uptrend and would open 131.22, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: Attention Is On The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8164 High May 15, 2015
• RES 3: 0.8136 High Jan 2018 and Major Resistance
• RES 2: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.7883 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 0.7798 @ 06:42 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 0.7704/7693 50-day EMA / Low Feb 26
• SUP 2: 0.7651 Low Feb 8
• SUP 3: 0.7583/64 Low Feb 5 / Low Feb 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7557 Low Dec 28

Despite this week's recovery, AUDUSD remains vulnerable following last week's sharp sell-off from 0.8007, Feb 25 high. Price action has so far managed to find support at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 0.7704. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open 0.7600 and potentially below. Initial resistance is at 0.7883, Feb 26 high with the bull trigger for a resumption of gains at 0.8007.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Gains Likely

• RES 4: 1.2915 High Dec 23
• RES 3: 1.2845/81 High Feb 4 / High Jan 28
• RES 2: 1.2763/42 High Feb 12
• RES 1: 1.2749 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 1.2649 @ 06:46 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 1.2587 Low Feb 26
• SUP 2: 1.2468/51 Low Feb 25 / Low Feb 16, 2018 Low
• SUP 3: 1.2376 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2276 Trendline Drawn From May 2015 Low

The USDCAD outlook remains unchanged with a firmer S/T tone still in place following the recovery from 1.2468 Feb 25 low. Gains have so far stalled at the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.2732. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for stronger gains towards 1.2881, Jan 28 high. On the downside, a move through 1.2468 would resume bearish pressure towards support drawn off the May 2015 low, a trendline that lies at 1.2276 this week.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H1) Bearish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: 175.98 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 175.70 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 175.26 High Feb 18
• RES 1: 174.97 High Mar 3
• PRICE: 173.91 @ 05:07 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 173.52 50.0% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 3 rally
• SUP 2: 172.76 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 3 rally
• SUP 3: 172.08 Low Feb 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 171.82 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Dec 2020 rally (cont)

Bund futures reversed direction yesterday stalling at the area of resistance highlighted by the 20-day EMA. In pattern terms, yesterday candle formation is a bearish engulfing reversal. This suggests a resumption of the downtrend and if correct, signals scope for a retest of last week's low of 172.08 on Feb 25. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 174.97, yesterday's high. A break would instead signal scope for a stronger recovery.

BOBL TECHS: (H1) Finds Resistance

• RES 4: 134.930 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 134.850 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 134.790 Low Feb 5 and High Feb 18
• RES 1: 134.750 High Mar 2 and 3
• PRICE: 134.500 @ 05:06 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 134.360 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 134.163 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 high
• SUP 3: 133.800 Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: 133.790 Low Jun 5, 2020 (cont)

Bobl futures maintain a bearish theme and recent gains are still considered a correction that has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The contract has traded above the 20-day EMA and the breach of this average has exposed the 50-day EMA at 134.914. For bears, yesterday's sell-off is a possible early bearish reversal signal. If correct, this suggests potential for weakness towards the Feb 26 low of 133.800. Today's pivotal resistance is 134.750.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) remains In A Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 112.305 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.290 High Feb 11 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.262 50-day EMA (cont)
• RES 1: 112.1251 High Mar 1 and 2
• PRICE: 112.085 @ 05:29 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 112.045 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 112.033 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 rally
• SUP 3: 112.011 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 rally
• SUP 4: 111.984 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 rally

Schatz futures remain in a bear trend although the sharp recovery from 111.940, Feb 26 low, means this market has entered a corrective cycle. This is allowing a recent oversold trend condition to unwind. Short-term resistance has been defined at 112.125, Mar 1 and 2 high. A break would signal scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, a pullback would instead signal the potential start of the downtrend and a return to 111.940, the Feb 26 low.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Stalls At 129.27

• RES 4: 130.46 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 130.00 Round number support
• RES 2: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 1: 129.27 High Mar 2
• PRICE: 128.23 @ Close Mar 3
• SUP 1: 127.94 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 127.55 Low Feb 26
• SUP 3: 127.37 61.8% retrace of the 2018 - 2020 bullish cycle (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.85 Low May 3, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures bears remain in control as price maintains a bearish sequence of lower lows and lowers highs. From a short-term perspective though, a corrective bullish cycle appears to be in play although yesterday's sell-off signals the possible end of the correction. Resistance to watch today is at 129.27, Mar 2 high. A break would allow for a stronger recovery. Support lies at 127.55, Feb 26 low and the trigger for a resumption of the downtrend.

BTP TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 152.62 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
• RES 3: 151.98 High Feb 22
• RES 2: 151.22 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 151.07 High Mar 1and 3
• PRICE: 150.75 @ Close Mar 2
• SUP 1: 149.76 High Mar 3
• SUP 2: 148.72 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 148.37 Low Oct 22 and key support
• SUP 4: 148.23 200-dma (cont)

BTP futures remain in a bear mode following last week's strong sell-off. The recent corrective bounce has stalled at 151.07, Mar 1 and 3 high and yesterday's sell-off signals scope for a retest of last week's low print of 148.72 on Feb 26. The breach on Feb 25 of support at 149.57, Jan 22 low adds further weight to a bearish theme. A break of 148.72 would open the 148.00 handle. Resistance is at 151.07.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Remains Below Key Resistance

• RES 4: 3867.28 High Feb 20, 2020
• RES 3: 3828.51 1.382 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 2: 3798.19 0.764 proj of Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 swing
• RES 1: 3742.53 High Feb 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 3712.78 @ Close Mar 3
• SUP 1: 3658.12 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 3622.24 Low Feb 26
• SUP 3: 3618.29 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3576.43 61.8% retracement of the Jan 28 - Feb 15 rally

EUROSTOXX 50 remains in a broader uptrend. However, while price remains below 3742.53, Feb 15 high, a corrective cycle remains in play, For bears, attention has been on the 50-day EMA at 3618.29 where a break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. This week's gains are encouraging for bulls. 3742.53 marks the bull trigger for a resumption of the uptrend and would open 3798.19, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K1) Attention Remains On The 20-day EMA

• RES 4: $71.75 - High Jan 8, 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $66.82 - High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $65.93 - High Mar 1
• PRICE: $64.45 @ 06:47 Mar 4
• SUP 1: $62.34 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low Feb 19
• SUP 3: $60.45 - Low Feb 12 and trendline drawn off Nov 2, 2020 low
• SUP 4: $58.31 - 50-day EMA

Brent crude futures remain in an uptrend although from a short-term perspective, and with price trading below recent highs, a corrective wave is currently still in play. This importantly, is allowing an overbought condition to unwind and attention is on the 20-day EMA at $62.34. A break of the average would allow for a deeper pullback towards trendline support at $60.45, drawn off the Nov 2 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger remains $66.82.

WTI TECHS: (J1) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $65.65 - High Jan 8, 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: $65.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $63.81 - High Feb 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $62.92 - High Mar 1
• PRICE: $61.50 @ 06:55 Mar 4
• SUP 1: $59.43/24 - 20-day EMA / Mar 3 low
• SUP 2: $58.60 - Low Feb 19 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $57.31/30 - Low Feb 12 / Trendline drawn off Nov 2, 2020 low
• SUP 4: $55.31 - 50-day EMA

WTI futures remains in an uptrend however the recent pullback suggests the contract has entered a short-term corrective phase. This is allowing an overbought condition to unwind and attention is on the 20-day EMA at $59.43. A clear break of the average would allow for a deeper pullback towards trendline support at $57.30, drawn off the Nov 2 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger remains $63.81, the Feb 25 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Trend Conditions

• RES 4: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 3: $1783.7 - 20-day EMA
• RES 2: $1760.7/75.9 - Low Feb 19 / High Feb 26
• RES 1: $1740.69 - High Mar 3
• PRICE: $1719.8 @ 07:13 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: $1702.04 - Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: $1700.0 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $1689.9 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Aug 2020 rally
• SUP 4: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020

Gold remains in a clear downtrend. This follows last week's sharp sell-off that saw the yellow metal trade through support at $1760.67, Feb 19 low. The break confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend that started in August 2020. Yesterday's weakness reinforces bearish conditions. The focus is on the $1700.0. MA studies are also in a bear mode highlighting the path of least resistance. Initial firm resistance is $1775.9, Feb 26 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Risk

• RES 4: $29.053 - High Feb 2
• RES 3: $28.498 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 1 - 4 sell-off
• RES 2: $28.328 - High Feb 23
• RES 1: $27.595 - High Feb 26
• PRICE: $26.207 @ 07:19 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: $25.843 - Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: $25.483 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 rally
• SUP 3: $24.700 - Low Jan 27
• SUP 4: $24.057 - Jan 18 low and a key support

Silver bearish risk remains intact. The metal traded lower yesterday. The key near-term support at $25.905, Feb 4 low has been probed. A clear break of this level would set the scene for a deeper pullback and expose $25.483, 76.4% retracement of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 rally. Key resistance has been defined at $28.328, Feb 23 high where a break would likely trigger stronger gains.