MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Bund Cycle in Play
Price Signal Summary – Bearish Bund Cycle Still in Play
- The S&P E-Minis outlook remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective and marks a pause in the uptrend. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the trend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. The contract has recently traded through the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a bullish theme.
- EURUSD is unchanged. The pair maintains a softer tone and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The 20-day EMA, at 1.0542, remains intact. A close above this average is required to signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery. Recent gains in EURGBP appear to have been a correction. Resistance at 0.8325, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too.
- Gold is unchanged and continues to trade below its recent highs. Trend signals are bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. A key short-term resistance at $2721.4, Nov 25 high, has recently been pierced and this represents a positive development. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- The current bearish cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Sights are on 133.98, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen the current downleg. A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and Tuesday’s gap lower reinforces current bearish conditions. The move down resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. A break of this level strengthens the bear condition and highlights a stronger reversal.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 2: 1.0660 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0542/0630 20-day EMA / High Dec 06
- PRICE: 1.0506 @ 06:14 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 1.0453 Low Dec 13
- SUP 2: 1.0425/0335 Low Nov 26 / 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD is unchanged. The pair maintains a softer tone and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The 20-day EMA, at 1.0542, remains intact. A close above this average is required to signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery. This would expose 1.0660, the 50-day EMA. For bears, a resumption of the downleg would pave the way for a test of key support at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low and bear trigger.
GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.2961 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2811 High Dec 6 and a short-term bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.2729 High Dec 17
- PRICE: 1.2706 @ 06:27 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 1.2609/2567 Low Dec 13 / 27
- SUP 2: 1.2487 Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3. 1.2446 Low May 9
- SUP 4: 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend
GBPUSD is trading above last week’s 1.2609 low (Dec 13). The primary trend direction remains down and recent gains appear to be corrective. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance to monitor is 1.2811, the Dec 6 high. A breach would highlight a reversal. Initial support lies at 1.2609, a break of this level would expose the bear trigger at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low.
EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 3: 0.8376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8356 High Nov 27
- RES 1: 0.8325 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8269 @ 06:40 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 0.8225 Low Dec 11
- SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 3: 0.8200 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing
Recent gains in EURGBP appear to have been a correction.Resistance at 0.8325, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a continuation lower would refocus attention on 0.8225. Clearance of this level would expose the major support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range.
USDJPY TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 156.75 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 155.89 High Nov 20
- RES 2: 154.84 76.4% retracement of the Nov 15 - Dec 3 pullback
- RES 1: 154.48 High Dec 16
- PRICE: 153.47 @ 06:59 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 152.36 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 151.61 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 149.37 Low Dec 06
- SUP 4: 148.65 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
USDJPY remains firm and the pair is trading just below its recent highs. Price remains above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of these averages undermines the recent bearish theme and signals scope for an extension. Sights are on 154.84, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal lower would signal the end of the latest bull cycle and refocus attention on the bear trigger at 148.65, the Dec 3 low. Initial support to watch is 152.36, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 164.21 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Dec 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 162.68 61.8% retracement of the Oct 31 - Dec 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 162.48 High Dec 17
- PRICE: 161.29 @ 07:11 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 160.62 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 158.67/157.87 Low Dec / 09
- SUP 3: 156.18 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support
A bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and recent gains mark an extension of the current corrective phase. MA studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. However, price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 161.58. A clear break of this average would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. Initial support to watch is 158.67, the Dec 11 low. A breach of it would signal a reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension
- RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12
- RES 2: 0.6523 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6433 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6314 @ 08:03 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 0.6300 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23
- SUP 3: 0.6259 1.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6210 Low Oct 21 ‘22
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6259 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6433, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Continues To Appreciate
- RES 4: 1.4485 High Mar 25 2020
- RES 3: 1.4461 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4352 2.50 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4331 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4326 @ 08:13 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 1.4232 Low Dec 17
- SUP 2: 1.4119/3980 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair continues to appreciate. The recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The move higher exposes 1.4352 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4119, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 137.72 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 137.28 High Oct 2
- RES 2: 136.52/137.18 High Dec 6 / 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 135.30/136.01 20-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: 134.78 @ 05:54 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 134.39 Low Dec 13
- SUP 2 133.98 61.8% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 133.62 Low Nov 22
- SUP 4: 133.22 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
The current bearish cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Sights are on 133.98, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen the current downleg. For bulls, a reversal higher would highlight the end of the correction. First key resistance to watch is 136.01, the Dec 12 high. A move above this level would expose 137.18, the Dec 2 high.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 119.813 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 119.674 2.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 119.280/119.480 High Dec 4 and 5 / High Dec 2
- RES 1: 118.583/119.130 20-day EMA / High Dec 11
- PRICE: 118.330 @ 06:01 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 118.170 Low Dec 12
- SUP 2: 118.059 61.8% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.850 Low Nov 22
- SUP 4: 117.723 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
The current bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA signalling scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would open 118.059 next, a Fibonacci retracement and clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. The first key resistance to watch is 119.130, the Dec 11 high. A break of it would highlight a reversal and open 119.480, the Dec 2 high.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 107.592 1.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing
- RES 3: 107.505 1.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing
- RES 2: 107.480 High Dec 2 / 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 107.173/365 20-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: 107.080 @ 06:05 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 107.030 Low Dec 12
- SUP 2: 107.005 Low Nov 21
- SUP 3: 106.960 Low Nov 20
- SUP 4: 106.920 Low Nov 18
The current bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent lows. A continuation lower would signal scope for a move towards 107.005, the Nov 21 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would highlight the end of the bear cycle. First key short-term resistance to watch is 107.365, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. Initial resistance is at 107.184, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 95.57 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 94.88 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 94.50 High Dec 16
- RES 1: 93.87 Low Dec 16 and gap high on the daily chart
- PRICE: 93.21 @ Close Dec 17
- SUP 1: 93.05 Low Dec 17
- SUP 2: 93.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 92.78 3.236 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 4: 92.63 3.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and Tuesday’s gap lower reinforces current bearish conditions. The move down resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. A break of this level strengthens the bear condition and highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on the 93.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 94.88, the 20-day EMA. The contract is oversold, short-term gains would be considered corrective.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Retracement Mode
- RES 4: 124.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 122.85/123.34 High Dec 12 / 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.34 @ Close Dec 17
- SUP 1: 120.89 Low Dec 17
- SUP 2: 120.37 50.0% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 119.67 61.8% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 119.11 Low Nov 18
A corrective cycle in BTP futures has resulted in a pullback from its recent highs and last week’s sell-off signals potential for an extension near-term. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and this opens 120.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 5184.22 3.236 proj of the Nov 19 - 25 - 27 price swing
- RES 3: 5150.00 3.00 proj of the Nov 19 - 25 - 27 price swing
- RES 2: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 5015.00 High Oct 29
- PRICE: 4946.00 @ 06:30 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 4895.65/4844.00 50-day EMA / High Nov 25
- SUP 2: 4760.00 Low Dec 2
- SUP 3: 4699.00 Low Nov 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. The contract has recently traded through the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a bullish theme and note that 4961.00, the Nov 6 high, has also been cleared. A resumption of gains would open 5015.00 next, the Oct 29 high. Initial support to watch lies at 4895.65, the 50-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bulls Pause For Breath
- RES 4: 6184.00 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 1: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6134.75 @ 07:45 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: 6105.41 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6043.00/6014.78 Low Nov 26 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5970.25 Low Nov 21
- SUP 4: 5921.00 Low Nov 19
The S&P E-Minis outlook remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective and marks a pause in the uptrend. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the trend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. A continuation higher would open 6194.19, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 6105.41, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (G5) Trend Set-Up Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $84.32 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.83 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $79.98/80.44 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $75.79 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $73.39 @ 07:10 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: $69.95 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.52/67.89 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.70 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $64.34 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
The outlook in Brent futures remains bearish and moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clearer reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $79.98, the Oct 7 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $75.79, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (G5) Recent Bounce Appears Corrective
- RES 4: $79.59 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $77.41 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $74.27/76.41 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $71.97 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $69.95 @ 07:33 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: $66.01 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $65.57/63.73 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $62.85 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 5 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $71.97, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
- RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 1: $2726.2 - High Dec 12
- PRICE: $2646.9 @ 07:24 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: $2633.2 - Low Dec 17
- SUP 2: $2605.3/2564.4 - Low Nov 26 / 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
Gold is unchanged and continues to trade below its recent highs. Trend signals are bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. A key short-term resistance at $2721.4, Nov 25 high, has recently been pierced and this represents a positive development. A resumption of gains would expose key resistance at $2790.1, the Oct 31 high. Clearance of this level would resume the primary uptrend. First key support is $2605.3, the Nov 26 low.
SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $32.338 - High Dec 12
- PRICE: $30.407 @ 08:16 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: $29.642 - Low Nov 28
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Price has recently traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. A continuation of the bear leg would open $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a resumption of recent gains would instead signal scope for a climb towards $33.125, the Nov 1 high. The short-term bull trigger is $32.338, the Dec 12 high.