MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Theme Intact for AUD
Price Signal Summary – Bearish Theme Intact for AUD
- A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback still appears to be a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Scope is seen for a climb towards 5868.50, a Fibonacci projection. The latest pullback in Eurostoxx 50 futures appears to be a correction. Key short-term support to watch is 4927.81, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Recently, the contract breached resistance at 5024.00, the Sep 3 high.
- GBPUSD maintains a softer short-term tone following last week’s sell-off and the pair is trading at its lows. Cable has breached support at the 20-day EMA and pierced the 50-day EMA at 1.3112. USDJPY is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA., a bullish development that undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 149.39, the Aug 15 high. The latest pullback in AUDUSD highlights a short-term corrective cycle and for now, a bearish theme remains intact. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average would undermine a bullish theme.
- Gold remains in consolidation mode. The trend condition is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern, reinforcing the current trend condition.WTI futures traded higher Monday as the pair extended the rally that started on Oct 1. The climb undermines a recent bearish theme and suggests potential for a continuation higher near-term.
- Bund futures are trading just above Monday’s low. The latest bearish reversal has resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and undermines a recent bullish outlook. Price traded lower again, Monday and a continuation would further strengthen a developing bearish threat. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. Friday’s impulsive sell-off, and Monday’s move lower, reinforces this theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Tone
- RES 4: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 3: 1.1214/34 High Sep 25 / 1.618 proj Jun 26-Jul 17-Aug 1 swing
- RES 2: 1.1076/1144 20-day EMA / High Oct 1
- RES 1: 1.1039 50-Day EMA
- PRICE: 1.0986 @ 05:50 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 1.0951/45 Low Oct 4 / 61.8% of the Aug 1 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 2: 1.0909 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 1.0881 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0778 Low Aug 1
EURUSD maintains a softer tone and is trading at its recent lows. The pair has breached support at 1.1002, the Sep 11 low, and what appears to be the midpoint of a double top reversal pattern on the daily chart. The break lower strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for weakness towards 1.0945 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1076, the 20-day EMA. First resistance is at 1.1039, the 50-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 1.3434 High Sep 26 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 2: 1.3305 High Oct 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3217 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3090 @ 06:02 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 1.3060 Low Oct 7
- SUP 2: 1.3049 50.0% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.3002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 4: 1.2959 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
GBPUSD maintains a softer short-term tone following last week’s sell-off and the pair is trading at its lows. Cable has breached support at the 20-day EMA and pierced the 50-day EMA at 1.3112. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and open 1.3049, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose 1.3002, the Sep 11 low. Initial resistance to watch is 1.3217, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Possible Reversal
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8444 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.8434 High Oct 3
- PRICE: 0.8389 @ 06:23 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 0.8353/11 Low Oct 4 / 1
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
Last Thursday’s strong rally EURGBP highlights a possible reversal. Note that the cross is trading close to the base of its 0.9300 - 0.8300 multi-year range and a key area of support. For now, moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Key support is at 0.8311, the Oct 1 low. Key resistance is 0.8464, the Sep 11 high and a reversal trigger. First resistance is 0.8434, Oct 23 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 153.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.94 Low Jul 25
- RES 2: 150.76 50.0% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.39 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 147.94 @ 06:46 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 145.92/144.95 Low Oct 4 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 141.65 Low Sep 30
- SUP 3: 140.45 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 139.58 Low Sep 16 and the bear trigger
USDJPY is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA., a bullish development that undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 149.39, the Aug 15 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish outlook. Initial firm support is 144.95, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal.
EURJPY TECHS: Trading Just Ahead Of Key Resistance
- RES 4: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 163.89 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 163.57 High Oct 7
- PRICE: 162.66 @ 07:02 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 160.55 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 158.11/155.15 Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY traded higher last week, resulting in a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 161.52. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 163.49, the Sep 27 high (pierced), and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. A clear break of both price points would highlight a potential reversal. For now, trend signals are bearish and gains are still considered corrective. A reversal lower and a resumption of bearish price action would open 154.42, Aug 5 low and the bear trigger.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6942 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6889 High Oct 3
- RES 1: 0.6810 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6729 @ 07:58 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 0.6715 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.6646 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6576 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
The latest pullback in AUDUSD highlights a short-term corrective cycle and for now, a bearish theme remains intact. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the 50-day average would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.6622, the Sep 11 low and a key support. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 0.6942, the Sep 30 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Testing Key Resistance
- RES 4: 1.3791 High Aug 7
- RES 3: 1.3745 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3683 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3647 High Sep 19 and key resistance
- PRICE: 1.3645 @ 08:07 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 1.3547 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3473/3420 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
- SUP 4: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 ‘23 - Aug 5 bull run
The trend condition in USDCAD remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs and is holding on to its latest gains. This has exposed 1.3647, the Sep 19 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal. Initial firm support to watch is 1.3547, the 20-day EMA. A breach would highlight a potential reversal.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 137.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 136.20 High Oct 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 135.24 High Oct 3
- RES 1: 134.48 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 133.69 @ 05:29 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 133.40 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 133.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: 132.25 Low Jul 29
Bund futures are trading just above Monday’s low. The latest bearish reversal has resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and undermines a recent bullish outlook. Price traded lower again, Monday and a continuation would further strengthen a developing bearish threat. This would open 132.65, the Sep 2 low. Initial resistance is at 134.48, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Clears Support
- RES 4: 120.650 High Oct 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: 120.190 High Oct 3
- RES 2: 119.870 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 119.684 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.200 @ 05:42 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 118.990 Low Oct 7
- SUP 2: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 117.789 123.6% retrace projection of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull leg
Bobl futures traded lower Monday, starting the week on a bearish note. The reversal from the Oct 1 high, undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The contract has traded through a number of short-term retracement points and has breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would open 118.580, the Sep 3 low. Initial resistance is 119.684, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 107.450 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 107.225/335 High Oct 3 / 1 and key resistance
- RES 2: 107.110 High Oct 7
- RES 1: 106.989 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 107.835 @ 06:03 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 106.740 Low Sep 18
- SUP 2: 106.712 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 106.675 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 105.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
A short-term bearish threat in Schatz futures remains intact following the reversal from the Oct 1 high. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and breached 106.815, the Sep 18 low. The break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement to 106.712, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 106.989, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would signal a possible reversal.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Impulsive Bearish Wave
- RES 4: 99.47 High Oct and key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 98.72 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 98.53 High Oct 3
- RES 1: 96.93/98.14 High Oct 7 / 4
- PRICE: 96.36 @ Close Oct 7
- SUP 1: 96.32 Low Oct 7
- SUP 2: 96.23 1.00 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 96.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 95.47 1.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. Friday’s impulsive sell-off, and Monday’s move lower, reinforces this theme. The contract has traded through support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low and a bear trigger. The break strengthens the downtrend, signalling scope for a deeper retracement, towards 96.23, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 99.47, the Oct 1 high and just above the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 121.67/122.62 High Oct 3 / 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.36 @ Close Oct 7
- SUP 1: 120.17 Low Sep 19
- SUP 2: 119.58 38.2% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 117.34 Low Jul 26
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures is bullish. However, a short-term bearish threat exists for now, following the reversal from the Oct 1 high. This move down highlights a corrective cycle. The contract has pierced the 20-day EMA, at 120.86. A continuation lower would open 120.17, the Sep 19 low and the next important support. A break of this support would expose 119.58, a Fibonacci retracement. The bull trigger is 122.62, the Oct 1 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5048.00/5106.00 High Oct 1 / High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 4947.00 @ 06:19 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 4927.81 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4848.00/4757.00 Low Sep 13 / Low Sep 6 and 10
- SUP 3: 4813.00 Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
The latest pullback in Eurostoxx 50 futures appears to be a correction. Key short-term support to watch is 4927.81, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Recently, the contract breached resistance at 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 5106.00, the Sep 30 high.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5871.77 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: 5830.00 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 5744.25 @ 07:17 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 5736.55/5724.00 20-day EMA / Low Oct 2
- SUP 2: 5669.25 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 5451.25 Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest shallow pullback still appears to be a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Scope is seen for a climb towards 5868.50, a Fibonacci projection, and 5900.00 further out. Initial support to watch is 5736.55, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. Key support lies at 5669.25 the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $86.86 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $85.54 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $83.02 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $81.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- PRICE: $79.66 @ 07:01 BST Oct 10
- SUP 1: $77.23/74.65 - Low Oct 7 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $69.91/68.29 - Low Oct 1 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures traded sharply higher last week and again yesterday, starting the week on a bullish note. The rally marks an extension of the bull leg that started on Sep 9. This has exposed $81.47, a Fibonacci retracement level. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open $83.02, the Jul 18 high. Initial firm support to watch is $74.65, the 20-day EMA. A clear break would be seen as an early reversal signal.
WTI TECHS: (X4) Bull Cycle Extension
- RES 4: $82.59 - High Apr 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.75 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $79.69 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $78.46 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $75.66 @ 07:13 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: $73.46/71.18 - High Oct 4 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $66.33/64.61 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures traded higher Monday as the pair extended the rally that started on Oct 1. The climb undermines a recent bearish theme and suggests potential for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on $77.40, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg. This level has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is $71.18, the 20-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Bull Flag
- RES 4: $2708.4 - 2.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2697.9 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2690.2 - 2.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2644.6 @ 07:18 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: $2624.8 - Low Sep 30
- SUP 2: $2615.0 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2584.9 - Low Sep 20
- SUP 4: $2544.4 - 50-day EMA
Gold remains in consolidation mode. The trend condition is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern, reinforcing the current trend condition. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2690.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $2615.0, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: $33.738 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $33.297 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.963 - High Sep 26
- PRICE: $31.170 @ 08:10 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: $31.043/30.131 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $28.535 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 and a key support
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $31.754, the Jul 11 high. Note too that price has also pierced $32.518, the May 20 high and a key resistance. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and open $33.297, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $30.131, the 50-day EMA.