MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Break of Resistance Confirms Resumption of Bund Uptrend

Price Signal Summary – Break of Resistance Confirms Resumption of Bund Uptrend

• A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract traded higher Monday. The rally last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 27. Note too that the contract has cleared resistance at 4738.50, the Jul 27 high, reinforcing current positive trend conditions. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s gains confirm, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and maintain a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• The USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish and the latest sell-off reinforces this condition. The pair has cleared the bear trigger at 1.3480, the Dec 4 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and ends the consolidation phase posted since the beginning of December. A bear threat in EURJPY remains present. Last week’s move lower reinforces the bearish theme and the recent recovery from 153.23, the Dec 7 low is considered corrective. A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and last week’s rally reinforces this theme. The pullback from Friday’s high is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend.
• Gold traded sharply higher last Wednesday. This signals a S/T reversal and the end of the recent Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb toward key resistance. Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and the recent bounce appears to be a correction. Last week’s fresh trend low reinforces a bearish theme and the break of $69.08, Dec 7 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The break of resistance at 135.81, the Dec 7 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The current uptrend in Gilt futures remains intact. Last week’s rally reinforces this theme and confirms once again, a resumption of the underlying uptrend. This also maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 1.1017 High Nov 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1009 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 1.0925 @ 05:49 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 1.0852/1.0796 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.0724 Low Dec 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0693 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 1.0665 61.8% retracement of the Oct 3 - Nov 29 rally

Last week’s recovery in EURUSD is a bullish development and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Nov 29 - Dec 8. The rally suggests scope for a test of key short-term resistance at 1.1017, the Nov 29 high and a bull trigger. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Key support has been defined at 1.0724, the Dec 8 low. Initial support is at 1.0852, the Dec 18 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2819 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 1.2800 High Aug 22
• PRICE: 1.2658 @ 06:04 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 1.2612 Low Dec 14
• SUP 2: 1.2586/00 20-day EMA / Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.2488 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and last week’s rally reinforces this theme. The pullback from Friday’s high is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.2733, the Nov 29 high, has been cleared, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 1.2800 next. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2586, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8725 High Nov 22
• RES 2: 0.8690 High Nov 27
• RES 1: 0.8646 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8632 @ 06:33 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 0.8549 Low Dec 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8524 Low Sep 5
• SUP 3: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8420 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The EURGBP trend needle continues to point south and the latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 0.8524, the Sep 5 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 0.8646, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would instead highlight a stronger short-term reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 147.32 High Dec 7
• RES 3: 146.59 High Dec 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 145.26 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - 14 sell-off
• RES 1: 144.44 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - 14 sell-off
• PRICE: 144.44 @ 06:46 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 140.97/71 Low Dec 14 / 76.4% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run
• SUP 2: 140.23 2.00 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing
• SUP 3: 139.11 1.764 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28

A sharp sell-off in USDJPY last week reinforces current bearish conditions and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The pair last week cleared support at 141.71, Dec 7 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started on Nov 13. Sights are on 140.71, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would further reinforce bearish conditions. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 146.59, the Dec 11 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 159.93 High Dec 4
• RES 3: 159.05 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 158.21 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 157.68 High Dec 11 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 156.92 @ 06:57 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 153.23 Low Dec 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 150.92 Low Jun 14

A bear threat in EURJPY remains present. Last week’s move lower reinforces the bearish theme and the recent recovery from 153.23, the Dec 7 low is considered corrective. Key short-term resistance to watch is at 157.68, the Dec 11 high. A break would signal a short-term reversal. On the downside, sights are on the bear trigger at 153.23, the Dec 7 low. A break would open 151.42, the Jul 28 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 0.6847 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 0.6821 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 0.6747 76.4% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6735 High Dec 18
• PRICE: 0.6715 @ 07:52 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 0.6655 Low Dec 14
• SUP 2: 0.6591/26 20-day EMA / Low Dec 07
• SUP 3: 0.6524 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6453 Low Nov 17

The uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce this theme. Price is trading at the recent highs. The pair has traded through 0.6691, the Dec 4 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 0.6747 next, 76.4% of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 0.6526, the Dec 7 low. A break would threaten the uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• RES 3: 1.3712 High Nov 24
• RES 2: 1.3619 High Dec 7 and 12 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.3520 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 1.3396 @ 07:54 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 1.3320 Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: 1.3283 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.3253 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.3184 Low Aug 1

The USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish and the latest sell-off reinforces this condition. The pair has cleared the bear trigger at 1.3480, the Dec 4 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and ends the consolidation phase posted since the beginning of December. Sights are on 1.3283, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3619, the Dec 7 / 12 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 138.76 3.50 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 138.49 3.382 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 138.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 137.58 3.00 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• PRICE: 136.87 @ 05:30 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 135.81/134.37 Low Dec 15 / 8 and a key support
• SUP 2: 134.29 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 133.42 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 132.59 Low Dec 1

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The break of resistance at 135.81, the Dec 7 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 137.58, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 134.37, the Dec 8 low. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bullish Conditions Remain Intact

• RES 4: 119.438 3.618 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 119.320 3.50 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 119.202 3.382 proj of the Nov 14 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.160 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 118.840 @ 05:37 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 118.330 Low Dec 15
• SUP 2: 117.910 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 117.800 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 117.725 20-day EMA

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the recent recovery is a positive development. Short-term resistance at 118.480 has been cleared, the Dec 7 high, resuming the uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and opens the 119.202 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 117.800, the Dec 8 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.621 1.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 1: 106.527 1.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• PRICE: 106.305 @ 05:57 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 106.160 Low Dec 15
• SUP 2: 105.955 Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 4: 105.640 Low Nov 29

Trend conditions in Schatz futures remain bullish and last week’s rally reinforces current conditions. The contract has cleared 106.290, the Dec 6 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 106.527, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 105.955, Dec 13 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 102.80 2.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 102.48 2.382 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 102.09 2.236 proj of the Nov 24 - 29 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: 101.98 High May 11 (cont)
• PRICE: 101.30 @ Close Dec 19
• SUP 1: 100.20 High Dec 13 and gap high
• SUP 2: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 98.38 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 97.39 Low Dec 11 and a key support

The current uptrend in Gilt futures remains intact. Last week’s rally reinforces this theme and confirms once again, a resumption of the underlying uptrend. This also maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 102.09, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial firm support lies at 98.97, the Dec 6 high and a recent breakout level. Short-term weakness would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 120.60 2.50 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 119.77 2.236 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.36 High Dec 18
• PRICE: 118.65 @ Close Dec 18
• SUP 1: 117.18 High Dec 13 and gap high
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 114.13 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 112.70 Low Nov 24

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play. Last week’s move higher reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has cleared former resistance at 117.22, the Dec 7 high and a bull trigger. This maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 119.77, a Fibonacci projection, is the next objective. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 115.70, the Dec 8 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4697.50 1.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 4634.00 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 4566.00 @ 06:10 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 4553.00 Low Dec 14
• SUP 2: 4480.80 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4447.00 Low Dec 5
• SUP 4: 4370.00 Low Nov 28

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s gains confirm, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and maintain a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a rising cycle. The focus is on 4636.70, a long-term Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch is at 4488.10, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: 4899.09 1.382 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 4862.08 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 2: 4808.25 High Jan 4 2022 and major resistance
• RES 1: 4802.25 High Dec 18
• PRICE: 4794.00 @ 07:17 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: 4696.75 Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 4659.25 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4594.00 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 4566.44 50-day EMA

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract traded higher Monday. The rally last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 27. Note too that the contract has cleared resistance at 4738.50, the Jul 27 high, reinforcing current positive trend conditions. This signals scope for a climb towards 4808.25 next, Jan 4 2022 high. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 4659.25, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $87.12 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $84.61 - High Nov 30 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: $80.65 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $79.51 - High Dec 18
• PRICE: $78.00 @ 07:00 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: $72.29/71.45 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: $69.86 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 3: $66.90 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $64.81 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures remain in a downtrend despite the most recent gains - a correction. Last week’s break lower confirmed once again, a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.45 next, the Jun 23 low. The next resistance is $80.65, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a stronger reversal.

WTI TECHS: (G4) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $82.64 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $79.67 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: $76.23 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $74.61 - High Dec 18
• PRICE: $72.72 @ 07:12 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: $67.98/07 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: $65.24 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 3: $63.79 - 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 6 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Round number support

Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and the recent bounce appears to be a correction. Last week’s fresh trend low reinforces a bearish theme and the break of $69.08, Dec 7 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. The focus is on $67.07, the Jun 23 low. Resistance to watch is $76.23, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Reversal Signal

• RES 4: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 1: $2054.30- 50.0% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• PRICE: $2024.5@ 07:14 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16
• SUP 4: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13

Gold traded sharply higher last Wednesday. This signals a S/T reversal and the end of the recent Dec 4 - 13 corrective pullback. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb toward key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary bull trend. Initial firm support lies at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $26.397 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $24.519/25.761 - 61.8% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg / High Dec 4
• PRICE: $23.839 @ 07:57 GMT Dec 19
• SUP 1: $22.510 - Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver traded sharply higher last Wednesday highlighting a reversal. The metal is also trading closer to its recent highs, reinforcing the developing bullish theme. The Dec 13 price pattern appears to be a bullish engulfing candle. If correct, this highlights potential for a continuation higher. An extension would open $24.519, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is at $25.761, the Dec 4 high. Key support lies at $22.510, the Dec 13 low.