MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - BTPs Remain Heavy

Tech Focus: Price Signal Summary - BTPs Remain Heavy

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis bulls continue to dominate. The focus is on 4160.13 next, 1.500 projection of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing.
• In the FX world, the USD is weaker. EURUSD has cleared the 50-day EMA strengthening a short-term bullish argument. The focus is on 1.1990, Mar 11 high and a key resistance. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish with a firm resistance at 1.3919, Apr 6 high. The key support and bear trigger to watch is 1.3670/69, Mar 25 and Apr 12 low. EURGBP key near term resistance is 0.8731, Feb 26 high. A break of this hurdle is required to suggest scope for an extension of recent gains. USDJPY remains vulnerable near-term. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on 108.41, Mar 23 low.

On the commodity front:

• Price action in Gold suggests the yellow metal has been building a base since Mar 8. If correct, key nearby resistance levels appear exposed. The key technical factors to note are the low prints on Mar 8 and Mar 31 suggest a potential double reversal has formed. The midpoint at $1755.5, Mar 18 high.
• Brent (M1) is again firmer:
  - Resistance to watch is at $66.94, the overnight high ahead of $67.14 Key support is unchanged at $60.33, Mar 23 low. WTI (K1) is edging higher too.
• • Key resistance shifts to $63.88, the 61.8% retracement of the February – March downleg.

In the FI space, key support to watch in Bunds (M1) remains 170.52, Mar 18 low. The key resistance is at 172.66, Mar 25 high. Initial resistance is at 172.12, Apr 8 high. The key support and bear trigger in Gilts (M1) is unchanged at 126.79, Mar 18 low. Initial firm resistance is 128.93, Mar 25 high. BTPs (M1) cleared support yesterday at 148.36, Mar 18 low. This opens 147.68 next, 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Tests Key Near-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2116 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.2112 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2037 61.8% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1990 Intraday high / High Mar 11 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.1973 @ 06:05 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 1.1940 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1861 Low Apr 7 and 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 4: 1.1738 Low Apr 5

EURUSD is holding onto gains and has tested the next key resistance of 1.1990, Mar 11 high. A break of this level would strengthen a bullish argument and signal scope for an extension of recent gains. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA is a bullish development and S/T momentum signals point north. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.1861, Apr 7 and 8 low. A break would signal the end of the current recovery.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus Despite Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.3978 Former bull channel base
• RES 3: 1.3953 50% Retracement Feb - Mar Downleg
• RES 2: 1.3919 High Apr 6 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3840 High Apr 7
• PRICE: 1.3770 @ 06:13 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 1.3670/69 Low Mar 25 / Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 1.3663 Low Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: 1.3641 38.2% retracement of the Sep 23 - Feb 24 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Feb 4

Despite recent gains, GBPUSD remains bearish. Firm resistance is unchanged at 1.3919, Apr 6 high. Note, a former bull channel drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low also highlights resistance at 1.3978. Clearance of 1.3919/78 is required to strengthen a bullish argument. Attention is on key support at 1.3670, Mar 25 low. A clean break would resume the 1.5 month downtrend and open 1.3641, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is 1.3840.

EURGBP TECHS: Holding Onto Gains

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 4
• RES 3: 0.8788/91 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Feb 12
• RES 2: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 0.8712 High Apr 13
• PRICE: 0.8696 @ 06:20 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 0.8582 Low Apr 7
• SUP 2: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8430/8397 Low Feb 27, 2020 / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26

EURGBP is consolidating. A Bullish outlook remains intact. Recent gains reinforce the current bullish theme following a bullish engulfing reversal pattern on Mar 6. The cross has also traded above a key resistance at 0.8646, Mar 24 high and above the 50-day EMA. An extension higher would open 0.8731, Feb 26 high where a break would strengthen the current bull cycle. Initial support is at 0.8582, Apr 7 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Correction Extends

• RES 4: 111.71 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 2: 110.55/97 High Apr 6 / High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 109.96 High Apr 9
• PRICE: 108.88 @ 06:25 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 108.75 Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 108.41 Low Mar 23 and key support
• SUP 3: 108.07 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 107.37 Trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low

USDJPY remains vulnerable and is trading at recent low. A bearish theme follows the recent pullback from the Mar 31 high. The pair traded lower Wednesday reinforcing the current bearish cycle, signalling scope for an extension towards 108.41, Mar 23 low and a key short-term support. The current pullback is likely a correction that is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at 109.96, the Apr 9 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 132.36 1.382 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 131.58 High Oct 4, 2018
• RES 2: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 130.69 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 130.37 @ 06:30 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 129.57/13 Low Apr 8 / Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 129.01/28.99 50-day EMA / Trendline drawn off Oct 30 low
• SUP 3: 128.29 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

EURJPY is consolidating. The cross has defined an initial support at 129.57, Apr 8 low and note, the 20-day EMA has also recently provided support. A clear break of this average would suggest scope for a deeper pullback and expose key support around the 50-day EMA at 129.01 and trendline support at 128.99, drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. While this support zone holds, the uptrend remains intact. The trigger for a resumption of gains remains 130.69.

AUDUSD TECHS: Back Above The Head And Shoulders Neckline

• RES 4: 0.7895 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 3: 0.7849 High Mar 18 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 0.7774 High Mar 19
• RES 1: 0.7750 High Mar 23
• PRICE: 0.7713 @ 06:44 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 3: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22
• SUP 4: 0.7462 Low Dec 21

AUDUSD traded firmer Wednesday, clearing 0.7677, Apr 7 high. The move higher has also resulted in a break of trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high and, price is above the neckline of a recent head and shoulders reversal pattern, suggesting scope for a stronger recovery. An ability to remain above the 50-dma would strengthen a bullish case. Initial firm support is at 0.7635, Feb 14 low. A break would be bearish.

USDCAD TECHS: Testing Support

• RES 4: 1.2763 High Feb 12
• RES 3: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 1.2647 High Mar 30 and the short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2524 @ 06:50 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 1.2500 Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 1.2462 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing

USDCAD failed to hold onto Tuesday's highs and traded lower again yesterday. Support at 1.2502, Apr 5 low has been probed. A clear break of this level would suggest scope for a deeper pullback and highlight potential for a test of 1.2365, Mar 18 low and the bear trigger. A recovery however would maintain the current bullish theme with the bull trigger at 1.2647, Mar 30 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Approaching Support

• RES 4: 172.66 High Mar 25
• RES 3: 172.34 High Mar 29
• RES 2: 172.12 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 171.62 High Apr 14
• PRICE: 170.76 @ 05:13 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 170.52 Low Mar 18 and key support
• SUP 2: 170.0576.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 169.24 Low Feb 24 and major support

Bund futures remain vulnerable following yesterday's sell-off. Attention is on the key short-term support at 170.52, Mar 18 low. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for a deeper sell-off, opening 170.05, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is at yesterday's high of 171.62. A firmer resistance though is at 172.12, Apr 8 high. Bearish!

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Support Exposed

• RES 4: 135.520 High Mar 25
• RES 3: 135.440 High Mar 29
• RES 2: 135.350 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 135.180 High Apr 14
• PRICE: 134.890 @ 05:16 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 134.830 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 134.780 Low Mar 8 and 9
• SUP 3: 134.667 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 134.446 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Bobl futures traded lower yesterday clearing a number of near-term supports along the way. A bearish outlook remains intact with attention on support at 134.780, Mar 9 low where a break would strengthen a bearish argument and suggest scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 134.667, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is at yesterday's high of 135.180.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 112.173 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 3: 112.167 50-day EMA (cont)
• RES 2: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 112.150 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 112.090 @ 05:30 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 112.080 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 112.070 Low Mar 18 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 112.060 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Initial Schatz futures resistance has been defined at 112.150, Mar 25 high. The contract also remains below the key resistance at 112.165, Mar 25 high. Yesterday's sell-off reinforces a bearish theme and further weakness would expose support at 112.070, Mar 18 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish argument and open 112.060, Mar 10 low and potentially below. For bulls, a break of 112.165 would reinstate a bullish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Still Looking For Weakness

• RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 3: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 128.93 High Mar 25
• RES 1: 128.66 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 128.03 @ Close Apr 14
• SUP 1: 127.32 Low Apr 1
• SUP 2: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded lower yesterday. Despite recent gains, the downtrend remains intact. Attention is on key support at 126.79, Mar 18 low and the trigger for a resumption of the trend. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a test of the 126.00 handle. On the upside, initial firm resistance is unchanged at 128.93, Mar 25 high. A break of this level would expose the key hurdle for bulls at 129.27, Mar 2 high.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Heading South

• RES 4: 150.39 High Mar 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 149.88 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 149.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 148.62 High Apr 14
• PRICE: 148.04 @ Close Apr 14
• SUP 1: 147.69/68 Low Apr 14 / 76.4% of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 2: 147.56 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1456.16 Low Sep 21, 2020

BTP futures traded lower again yesterday extending the break of support at 148.36, Mar 18 low. The move lower reinforces a bearish theme and paves the way for weakness towards 147.56, Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would expose the key support and bear trigger at 146.84, Feb 26 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 148.62, Apr 14 high ahead of the firmer 149.47 level, Apr 8 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Eyeing 4000

• RES 4: 4110.24 High Jan 18, 2008
• RES 3: 4047.72 2.236 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 2: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 3988.10 High Apr 7
• PRICE: 3976.28 @ Close Apr 14
• SUP 1: 3950.18 Low Apr 6
• SUP 2: 3910.90 Low Mar 31
• SUP 3: 3906.15 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3841.46 Low Mar 26

EUROSTOXX 50 maintains a bullish theme. The index registered a fresh trend high on Apr 6 of 3988.10. The recovery from 3784.09, Mar 25 low, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend, extending the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on the psychological 4000.00 handle next. On the downside, key trend support is at 3784.09. A break is required to signal a potential short-term top. Bullish!

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M1) Bullish Breakout

• RES 4: $70.67 - High Mar 8 and the key bull trigger
• RES 3: $69.50 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $67.76 - High Mar 18
• RES 1: $67.30 - Former trendline support drawn off the Nov 2 low
• PRICE: $66.62 @ 06:51 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: $63.88 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: $61.25 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: $60.33 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $58.27 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally

Brent crude futures traded higher yesterday and in the process cleared resistance at $63.59, Mar 29 high. With short-term momentum studies pointing north, the break is a bullish development and signals scope for further strength. Initial resistance is at $67.30, a former trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low. A break would open $67.76 and $69.50, the Mar 18 and 15 highs respectively. Initial support is at $63.88, yesterday's low.

WTI TECHS: (K1) Clears Resistance

• RES 4: $67.79 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.44 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $64.47/88 - Former trendline support / High Mar 18
• RES 1: $63.44 - High Mar 30
• PRICE: $63.16 @ 07:00 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: $60.38 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: $57.63 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: $57.25 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $55.65 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally

WTI futures traded higher yesterday resulting in a break of resistance at $62.27, Mar 30 high. With short-term momentum studies pointing north, the breach is a bullish development and signals scope for further strength. The next firm resistance is $64.47, a former trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low. A break would open $64.88 and $66.44, the Mar 18 and 15 highs respectively. Initial support is at $60.38, yesterday's low.

GOLD TECHS: Focus Is On Resistance

• RES 4: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 3: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 2: $1775.9 - High Feb 26
• RES 1: $1756.9/58.8 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 8
• PRICE: $1742.5 @ 07:17 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: $1721.4 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: $1705.9 - Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020

Gold is consolidating and remains below recent highs. Resistance is at $1758.8, Apr 8 high where a break is required to strengthen a bullish case and note, this would also highlight a break of the 50-day EMA. While the resistance holds, attention is on initial support at $1721.4, Apr 5 low. Clearance of this level would suggest scope for weakness towards the key support at $1676.9, Mar 8 low.

SILVER TECHS: 50-day EMA Marks Key Resistance

• RES 4: $26.636 - High Mar 18 and firm near-term resistance
• RES 3: $26.318 - High Mar 19
• RES 2: $25.657 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $25.617 - High Apr 8
• PRICE: $24.451 @ 07:18 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: $24.617 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: $23.781 - Low Mar 31
• SUP 3: $23.524 - Low Dec 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $22.591 - Low Dec 12

Silver resistance has been defined at $25.617, Apr 8 high. Despite recent gains, the outlook remains bearish and upticks are considered corrective. Recent bearish activity has opened $23.524, Dec 7 low and a key near-term support. On the upside, the 20-day EMA has been probed. An extension higher would expose $25.657, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the average would be a bullish development.