MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bull Cycle in Stocks Intact
Price Signal Summary – Bull Cycle in Stocks Remains Intact
- A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle highs, reinforce this theme. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup and this also reinforces the bullish theme. Scope is seen for a climb towards 5851.84. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply higher last week resulting in a clear break of 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme.
- The recent move higher in GBPUSD resulted in a climb above key resistance at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high, confirming a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. The pair is trading just below its recent highs and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Recent gains in USDJPY appear to have been a correction and Friday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The move lower also highlights a likely resumption of the downtrend. An uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair has again traded to a fresh cycle high. Key resistance at 0.6824, the Aug 29 high, has recently been breached. The break confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 5.
- Gold bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the yellow metal is trading just below its recent all-time high. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures have reversed a large part of its recent gains. This affirms the strength of resistance at the 50-day EMA of 71.91, which remains the key upside hurdle for bulls. This price action confirms the recovery since Sep 9 as a correction.
- Bund futures are holding on to their recent gains. The move down between Sep 11 - 20, is considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would highlight an extension of this corrective phase and open the 50-day EMA, at 133.79. The bull cycle in Gilt futures appears to have concluded and a bear threat remains present. With the contract trading closer to its recent lows, sights are on the next key support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.1409 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1342 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 1: 1.1214/34 High Sep 25 / 1.618 proj Jun 26-Jul 17-Aug 1 swing
- PRICE: 1.1161 @ 05:43 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 1.1114/1040 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 3: 1.0940 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
The short-term outlook in EURUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. 1.1202, the Aug 26 high and a bull trigger, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a move towards 1.1234, a Fibonacci projection and 1.1276, the Jul 18 '23 high. Support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 1.1114, it has been pierced but remains intact.
GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.3629 2.236 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3527 2.00 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3500 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 1.3434 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 1.3386 @ 05:52 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 1.3313/3237 Low Sep 25 and 26 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3088 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 4: 1.2890 Low Aug 19
The recent move higher in GBPUSD resulted in a climb above key resistance at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high, confirming a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. The pair is trading just below its recent highs and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting a clear uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards the 1.3500 handle next. Initial firm support is 1.3237, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8436/64 50-day EMA / High Sep 11
- RES 2: 0.8400 Low Aug 30
- RES 1: 0.8397 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8337 @ 06:15 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 proj of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact and recent weakness reinforces this theme. The cross has breached 0.8400, the Aug 30 low, confirming a resumption of the bear cycle. Furthermore, 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and a key support, has been cleared, strengthening the downtrend. Sights are on 0.8311 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8397, the 20-day EMA.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 149.39 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 147.21 High Sep 3
- RES 2: 146.40 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 143.63 20-day EMA6
- PRICE: 141.72 @ 06:48 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 139.58 Low Sep 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 139.00 1.382 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.30 1.50 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 2023
Recent gains in USDJPY appear to have been a correction and Friday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The move lower also highlights a likely resumption of the downtrend. A continuation lower would open 139.58, the Sep 16 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 139.00, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is seen at 146.40, the 50-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 163.89 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 161.57/163.49 50-day EMA / High Sep 27
- PRICE: 158.34 @ 07:05 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 154.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
A bear cycle in EURJPY remains intact and Friday’s strong sell-off reinforces this theme and signals the end of the recent corrective cycle. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would open 155.15, the Sep 16 low, and 154.42, the Aug 5 low and a bear trigger. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 163.49, the Sep 27 high, and 163.89, the Aug 15 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Uptrend Extends
- RES 4: 0.7029 High Feb 14 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6961 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 0.6941 High Sep 27
- PRICE: 0.6931 @ 08:01 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 0.6868/6789 Low Sep 27/ 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6728 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6608 Low Aug 16
An uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair has again traded to a fresh cycle high. Key resistance at 0.6824, the Aug 29 high, has recently been breached. The break confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 5. Sights are on 0.6984 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 0.6789, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
USDCAD TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.3693 High Aug 19
- RES 3: 1.3647 High Sep 19 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3596 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3543 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3513 @ 08:03 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 1.3420 Low Sep 25
- SUP 2: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 ‘23 - Aug 5 bull run
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
USDCAD remains in a clear downtrend and last Tuesday's strong sell-off reinforces this condition. The pair has traded through support at 1.3441, the Aug 28 low. This breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5. The move down paves the way for an extension towards 1.3358, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3543, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 136.37 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg
- RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 135.66 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 135.19/135.49 High Sep 27 / 11
- PRICE: 134.90 @ 05:16 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 134.31/79 Low Sep 27 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 132.25 Low Jul 29
- SUP 4: 131.66 Low Jul 26
Bund futures are holding on to their recent gains. The move down between Sep 11 - 20, is considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would highlight an extension of this corrective phase and open the 50-day EMA, at 133.79. Clearance of this average is required to undermine a bullish theme. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 120.905 1.50 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 120.722 1.382 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.496 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.230 High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.040 @ 05:28 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 119.634/340 20-day EMA / Low Sep 20
- SUP 2: 119.210 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - 11 rally
- SUP 3: 119.030 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and key support
The trend condition in Bobl futures remains bullish however, a short-term corrective cycle is potentially still in play for now. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 119.210, a Fibonacci retracement. The contract has recovered from its latest lows. The key resistance and bull trigger is at 120.230, the Sep 11 high.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 107.450 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 107.300 0.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 107.207 0.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 107.195 High Sep 24
- PRICE: 107.165 @ 05:10 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 106.950 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 106.815 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 106.675 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 105.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest pullback has been a correction. The move higher on Sep 24 resulted in a print above 107.155, the Sep 11 high and a key resistance. This highlights a resumption of the uptrend and a continuation higher would open 107.207, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 106.950, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a corrective retracement.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 102.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 101.78 1.00 proj of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing
- RES 2: 101.06/101.54 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
- RES 1: 99.50/100.39 20-day EMA / High Sep 19
- PRICE: 98.62 @ Close Sep 27
- SUP 1: 98.31 Low Sep 26
- SUP 2: 98.11 Low Sep 2 and a key support
- SUP 3: 98.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 97.30 1.236 Fibonacci retracement proj of the Sep 2 - 17 rally
The bull cycle in Gilt futures appears to have concluded and a bear threat remains present. With the contract trading closer to its recent lows, sights are on the next key support at 98.11, the Sep 2 low. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish theme and open 98.00. On the upside, key near-term resistance is seen at 99.50, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to instead highlight a possible reversal.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 122.22 3.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 121.90 High Sep 27
- PRICE: 121.47 @ Close Sep 27
- SUP 1: 120.49/17 20-day EMA / Low Sep 19
- SUP 2: 119.32 Low Sep 9
- SUP 3: 118.85 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 118.16 Low Sep 2 and key support
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures is bullish and last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforces this condition. The contract has traded through 121.59, the Sep 17 high, confirming a resumption of the trend and this maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for a climb towards 122.22 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 120.49, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5106.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5101.00 @ 06:12 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 4912.97 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4848/4757.00 Low Sep 13 / Low Sep 6 and 10
- SUP 3: 4813.00 Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply higher last week resulting in a clear break of 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. This confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Aug 5 and cancels a recent bearish theme. Scope is seen for a climb towards 5138.24, a Fibonacci projection, and the 5200 handle further out. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 4912.97, the 50-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 5900.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5871.77 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: 5830.00 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 5785.75 @ 07:43 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 5709.39 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5641.58 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 5451.25 Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle highs, reinforce this theme. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup and this also reinforces the bullish theme. Scope is seen for a climb towards 5851.84, a Fibonacci projection, and 5900.00 further out. On the downside, initial support to watch is 5709.39, the 20-day EMA. Key support lies at 5641.58, the Sep 27 low.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (X4) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: $82.10 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 3: $80.53 - High Aug 26
- RES 2: $77.46 - 50.0% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $75.94 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $72.91 @ 07:01 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: $70.72/68.68 - Low Sep 26 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $67.63 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $65.95 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.24 - 2.00 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
A bearish condition in Brent futures remains intact and last week’s move lower reinforces this theme. A key resistance at $75.94, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. A continuation lower would expose support at $68.68, the Sep 10 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would open $67.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a potential stronger reversal.
WTI TECHS: (X4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $79.69 - High Jul 18
- RES 3: $77.70 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 2: $76.40 - High Aug 26
- RES 1: $71.91/72.40/07 - 50-day EMA / High Sep 24
- PRICE: $69.07 @ 07:17 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: $66.95/64.61 - Low Sep 26 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $57.07 - 2.2368 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
WTI futures have reversed a large part of its recent gains. This affirms the strength of resistance at the 50-day EMA of 71.91, which remains the key upside hurdle for bulls. This price action confirms the recovery since Sep 9 as a correction. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A continuation lower would refocus attention on $64.61, the Sep 10 low and bear trigger.
GOLD TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact
- RES 4: $2708.4 - 2.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2697.9 - 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2690.2 - 2.618 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26
- PRICE: $2565.5 @ 07:22 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: $2622.7 - Low Sep 24
- SUP 2: $2585.1/2511.1 - 20-day EMA / Low Sep 12
- SUP 3: $2547.0 - Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: $2515.4 - 50-day EMA
Gold bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the yellow metal is trading just below its recent all-time high. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2690.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $2585.1, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $33.738 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $33.297 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.715 - High Sep 26
- PRICE: $31.625 @ 08:13 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: $30.450/29.695 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $28.535 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 and a key support
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and last week’s climb reinforces this set-up. The metal has traded through resistance at $31.754, the Jul 11 high. Note too that price has pierced $32.518, the May 20 high and a key resistance. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and open $33.297, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $29.619, the 50-day EMA.